The next few day will determine much more information.
Jim...
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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
Invest 97L --> Tropical Depression 4
- Thread starter JamesG161
- Start date
The next few day will determine much more information.
Jim...
I confess I am challenged to read those graphics. But I don't see a central area with a large wind shift suggesting that it has not yet acquired tropical cyclone characteristics (Rotation). Is that correct? I'm not puckered yet but am on a pucker alert.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 21,547
JIM... the storm..."Up in the Air" really....
Kappy. The water in the area is warm. Conducive for storm development if the wave front sits over water for any length of time. The concern is the two High pressure cells over Central US and the Northern Atlantic.
Here is an image of the Gulf of Mexico - GOES SST last 4 days composite ending 2 August.
Kappy. The water in the area is warm. Conducive for storm development if the wave front sits over water for any length of time. The concern is the two High pressure cells over Central US and the Northern Atlantic.
Here is an image of the Gulf of Mexico - GOES SST last 4 days composite ending 2 August.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 21,547
I looked for a regional image of the North Central Atlantic and the Area over Colorado. In this image you can see in blue the H for High pressure cells. These cells have clockwise rotating wind patterns, and the cells move West to East. The theory is that the Tropical Low "Invest 97L" will move into the area between these two H cells. The one over the rockies will in time dominate and try to push Invest 97L down stalling the storm over the Eastern Gulf.
It is only a theory at this time. The weather models are confused about what may happen. It is a situation of get prepared but wait and watch.
It is only a theory at this time. The weather models are confused about what may happen. It is a situation of get prepared but wait and watch.
I look for Heat content versus Water Temps
My Blue Arrow shows my Guess of Invest 97L path.
Jim...
The official forecast track is out and their guess matches your guess exactly.
I meant heat content!
Tks, Jim and John. Spent last Saturday AM getting the generator at my house back in working order. Hope I won't need it!
looks just like the impact of a typical Florida summer thunderstorm. Don’t scare the “unmarried cat ladies”
I haven't been watching this depression, but if anyone has, what is the Big Dog (the North Atlantic high) doing? From what's displayed here I find it difficult to see that this depression would survive fighting to turn north and also passing over Hispaniola and Florida. However if the Big Dog is moving eastward fast enough to allow it to turn north, then these seem to be reasonable forecasts.
Some years back when I lived in the Keys we were carefully watching a young hurricane on a very similar track, and preparing our boats and making hotel reservations on a bit higher ground inland. In 4 hours (between forecast updates) the hurricane completely disappeared. It happened so fast it was unbelievable, and we kept expecting it to reform in the Florida Straights and clobber us. It didn't and I'm still amazed that we were spared that time.
Some years back when I lived in the Keys we were carefully watching a young hurricane on a very similar track, and preparing our boats and making hotel reservations on a bit higher ground inland. In 4 hours (between forecast updates) the hurricane completely disappeared. It happened so fast it was unbelievable, and we kept expecting it to reform in the Florida Straights and clobber us. It didn't and I'm still amazed that we were spared that time.
TD4 is following the LOW Trough between the "Big Dog" and the HIGH over Arkansas .
Path shifted West, since the "Big Dog" was moving slowly.
Dammit Jim...