• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Invest 91L ---> T S Julia --> Hurricane Julia

Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
A new Tropical Wave is destined for the HEAT full Caribbean.

storm_91-2.gif


TABD or Green Triangle is best model for next 96 hours

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-3.gif


Keep a "Weather Eye" on Invest 91L

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,145
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
With L91 knocking at the door to the Caribbean, there are indications it will skirt along the South American coast and blow into the Nicaragua / Honduran coast as a TS. If so it could leap into the Pacific and create some Fall surf along the S Cal coastline in about 8-10 days.

One of those storms that you keep an eye on at the moment, but don't get too excited (my opinion).
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We predicted this type Tropical Wave would persist most of the Late Season 2022.

ITCZ or The Doldrums

The East Pacific has be very Active for reasons explained in the Link.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The good news is the Westerlies are moving at 15 knots.

Fast storms have less time to intensify

It will be come a Hurricane when it is fully over the HEAT fuel.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-3.gif


Current models runs do not show a Pacific or Gulf entry.

PTC13.png

Jim...

PS: Guess why the number is 13?
PSS: Friday the 13th?
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Minor Correction the the Chart above.

The Dotted Red Lines are not the Winds.

They are the Pressure Gradients at 500 mb altitude levels that direct the Wind flows.;)
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I see we have little interest in this soon to become Hurricane Julia.

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,446
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Julia is small and just had time to get its status with 74 mph winds.

AL132022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Looks like heading into the Pacific, like Hurricane Bonnie earlier this year.
Jim...
 
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