• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Henri

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,309
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
***Update. We got to the boat and the highest wind speed it recorded was 59.8 knots. I sneeze faster than that! lol
Well, wouldn't you know it?
We made the decision to bring Skipping Stone up from Carriacou because the hurricane season was swiftly approaching. Boating things being what they are, it took longer to get underway than planned and it was almost a month into the season by the time my wife and her crew got underway. Oh well. I've made dozens of deliveries from St. T. to the East Coast well into July, without too many problems.
Of course, that was before satellite weather and all this fancy gear, like chartplotters, et al. Had I known what I do do today, I doubt I'd have been quite so cavalier about "early" season deliveries through the Bermuda Triangle!
Anyway, things turned out Ok. Skipping Stone hove-to for a day or so and then, when properly positioned, rode Claudette's coat tails up the East Coast toward Newport. Actually, they did great. 2200 nautical miles in 14 days, 2 of them hove-to!
Arriving up here, I thought I was finally able to completely relax and blow off hurricane season for the first time in a dozen years or so. Ha, ha, ha.
Henri's eye came ashore around 20 miles from where Skipping Stone is sitting, high and dry fortunately. But we still went there (1.45 hours driving each way) and removed sails etc, in that miserably hot and humid day preceding a cyclonic system.
So, once again Neptune had the last laugh. Good thing the black box was full, even if Skipping Stone is for sale.
 
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Jun 21, 2004
1,884
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
Good to hear that the trip was without incident and that the Skipping Stone is high & dry. Neptune may have had the last laugh, but you were one step ahead!
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,128
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Your story gave me a smile @capta .. Happy your boat and crew made it safely north. Sounds like they had a grand sail.

Henri... is karma. You thought you might escape.. Not going to happen on Neptunes watch... Ha..:biggrin:
 
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capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,309
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
We haven't been to see the boat yet, but as Henri was the storm that wasn't, I'm not all that concerned.
I'm not sure if the NHC has changed the guidelines we had back when I worked with them, but a few more like Henri, with all the hype and hoopla for naught, and a whole lotta folks are going to die. It seems a great many people who should be more concerned with emergency management than ratings and sensationalism, have forgotten the story about the boy who cried wolf.
 
Jan 1, 2006
6,097
Slickcraft 26 Greenport, NY
... but as Henri was the storm that wasn't,...
From reports is wasn't that much on Eastern LI but that didn't stop the Weather Channel from performing CPR on it as it approached. I don't know if anyone even spilled their mudslides on Block Island. Meanwhile, we've got over a dozen dead in Tennessee which wasn't "Tropical" but was way more deadly. For whatever reason the TWC missed the call two ways furthering their loss in credibility which is at best ... tenuous.
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,128
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
It was not a storm like the 4 that hit Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi in 2020 but it did cause damage to the unprepared... At least the morning paper said it did hit RI.
1629722646681.png

Those buildings look more like the NE than the South or SE.
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,128
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
@JamesG161 advise to prepare over the past few days was spot on. But then he is not a sensationalist, doing it to get ratings.
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I guessed few Sailors knew what Tropical Storm Surge meant for their boat tie up.
That is the coastal issue that does more harm than Wind or Rain.

Boats are designed for the wind and tolerate the rain.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,711
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It would be nice to have SBO sailors post their experiences here...

This Storm Surge on @jssailem picture from RI, is very small or you would have seen grass debris on the roof of the

"Marina Cafe and Bar"

Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
16,128
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
Jim knows Storm Surge.
Zeta forecasted to be 6-8 feet, he planned for 10-12, got 14 plus.
Mother Nature knows how to mess with even the best plans.
 
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Mar 20, 2015
2,255
C&C 30 Mk1 Silver Harbour, Lake Winnipeg
For whatever reason the TWC missed the call two ways furthering their loss in credibility which is at best ... tenuous.
They are a network where the weather is a revenue product. They do much better at forecasting when to have a picnic not serious forecasting.

I prefer government agencies as a primary source.

Even they seem to be more inclined to err of them side of caution than they used to.

Who knows... It may be lower staff levels.
I know that Environment Canada
relies on computer models and has a lot less staff and many experienced staff are retired. One meteorologist did everything he could to show the bean counters that the best method is to use models as a tool.. not as a replacement for humans.

Slightly off topic.. when.working in the Arctic I discovered YR.no. they do a surprisingly good job forecasting weather in remote places. Environment Canada couldn't supply us a forecast in our camp, but YR could. I now use them for an additional data source.
 
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Sep 14, 2014
1,058
Catalina 22 Pensacola, Florida
My Marina after IvAn in Pensacola. Mine was one of 3 boats remaining floating after storm.
 

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Oct 22, 2014
16,128
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
I discovered YR.no. they do a surprisingly good job forecasting weather in remote places.
Nice site for weather. Translate for English speakers.

YR.no is using the European Weather models to prepare their forecast. Helps to speak Norwegian.
List of Yrs collaborators:
HvemHva
Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy ResearchObservations from weather stations
EUMETSATSatellite images
ECMWFWeather data
GeoNamesLocation names (outside Norway)

You can see similar data points on Windy when using the ECMWF model.
Here are 2 screen shots. The first showing the YR forecast and the next showing the Windy "compare" feature forecast for Port Townsend this next week. Windy carries multiple models. Depending on the time frame and location, one model maybe better for you than another.
YRno PT Forecast.jpg


PT Windy.jpg
 
Oct 26, 2008
5,020
Catalina 320 Barnegat, NJ
Well, we didn't escape Henri. In the wee hours of Sunday / Monday, he backed over New Jersey after making landfall. We had light rain all day Sunday and heavy downpour all night long as we were sleeping. Somehow, we had a roof leak that damaged some sheetrock and paint over our bathroom door. The Association is sending somebody out on Thursday to take a look. :(:(