- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,787
Over the past several years, we have discussed the importance of the ENSO current temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO is a climate pattern that shifts between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cool phase) every two to seven years. Studying this area's sea temperatures has popularized the currents' names.
Recent meteorological studies have examined the influence of the seasonal ENSO changes on the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the Atlantic.
ACE is an index created in 1988 by William Gray and his associates at Colorado State University. It categorizes the activeness of tropical cyclone seasons and identifies possible long-term trends in areas like the Lesser Antilles.
In an attempt to explore the future of the Atlantic Hurricane season, we look at signs of the ENSO. Data collected since the first of 2024 provided the following observations.
Over the past few months, the weather patterns monitored in the Pacific, specifically the ENSO current temperatures, have begun to show change. The decline in mid-Pacific Ocean temperatures indicates the ENSO current is changing from El Niño to Neutral. The expectation is the change will continue, a sign that La Niña conditions are occurring and will be evident during the summer and early fall months.
Using a combined modeling tool (NMME), the water temps in the Pacific ENSO currents are showing an upwelling of cold Antarctic waters along the coast of Chile and extending out into the equatorial waters of the South Pacific during the periods JunJulAug and AugSepOct.
The modeling also reveals warmer waters in the Atlantic along the normal path of storms that initiate off the coast of Africa and ride the west-flowing Trade winds. These Cold and Warm water conditions will change the amount of convection (the process by which heat is transferred by movement of a heated fluid such as air or water) generated at the surface into the air mass above, reducing the convection of storms in the Pacific and increasing it in the Atlantic.
These changes matter as they “modify the overall atmospheric flow.” Forecasts suggest a stronger westerly wind pattern out of the Pacific will reduce the strength of the Easterly Trade Winds in the Atlantic, slowing storm movements from East to West and giving storms more time to develop over Atlantic waters.
Over the past few seasons, we have observed the impact of upper-level winds, identified as the Tropical Jet, on tropical Atlantic storms. They have cut off storms' vertical growth or, at the very least, tilt storm cells on their side, reducing storms' cyclonic growth.
The ocean changes are suggested to reduce the impact on the Tropical Jet. We will have to watch this to see if it develops. It could enhance Atlantic tropical storms' cyclonic development (ACE) this season.
At the moment, these modeling tools are what we have to create a forecast of things to come.
We know the Hurricane season will be starting soon. NOAA says now is the time to start creating your hurricane reaction plan and gathering supplies and equipment to secure your family, home, and boat.
NOAA has produced preparation guides.
Jim and John
Be Prepared for Hurricane Season
Recent meteorological studies have examined the influence of the seasonal ENSO changes on the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the Atlantic.
ACE is an index created in 1988 by William Gray and his associates at Colorado State University. It categorizes the activeness of tropical cyclone seasons and identifies possible long-term trends in areas like the Lesser Antilles.
In an attempt to explore the future of the Atlantic Hurricane season, we look at signs of the ENSO. Data collected since the first of 2024 provided the following observations.
Over the past few months, the weather patterns monitored in the Pacific, specifically the ENSO current temperatures, have begun to show change. The decline in mid-Pacific Ocean temperatures indicates the ENSO current is changing from El Niño to Neutral. The expectation is the change will continue, a sign that La Niña conditions are occurring and will be evident during the summer and early fall months.
Using a combined modeling tool (NMME), the water temps in the Pacific ENSO currents are showing an upwelling of cold Antarctic waters along the coast of Chile and extending out into the equatorial waters of the South Pacific during the periods JunJulAug and AugSepOct.
The modeling also reveals warmer waters in the Atlantic along the normal path of storms that initiate off the coast of Africa and ride the west-flowing Trade winds. These Cold and Warm water conditions will change the amount of convection (the process by which heat is transferred by movement of a heated fluid such as air or water) generated at the surface into the air mass above, reducing the convection of storms in the Pacific and increasing it in the Atlantic.
These changes matter as they “modify the overall atmospheric flow.” Forecasts suggest a stronger westerly wind pattern out of the Pacific will reduce the strength of the Easterly Trade Winds in the Atlantic, slowing storm movements from East to West and giving storms more time to develop over Atlantic waters.
Over the past few seasons, we have observed the impact of upper-level winds, identified as the Tropical Jet, on tropical Atlantic storms. They have cut off storms' vertical growth or, at the very least, tilt storm cells on their side, reducing storms' cyclonic growth.
The ocean changes are suggested to reduce the impact on the Tropical Jet. We will have to watch this to see if it develops. It could enhance Atlantic tropical storms' cyclonic development (ACE) this season.
At the moment, these modeling tools are what we have to create a forecast of things to come.
We know the Hurricane season will be starting soon. NOAA says now is the time to start creating your hurricane reaction plan and gathering supplies and equipment to secure your family, home, and boat.
NOAA has produced preparation guides.
Jim and John
Be Prepared for Hurricane Season
