• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Do you remember the morning of 2 Feb 2025

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,553
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
On that fateful full morning, Stumptown Fil, our NW resident weather prognosticator beaver, awoke. He tumbled out of his nest and crawled outside. "Oh no!" in a gravelly beaver voice he cried. "My shadow, my shadow!" Frightened by the image of this apparition, he scurried back into his warm abode and snuggled under the bedding. "Six more weeks of winter! Ugh!"

The sun has teased us these past weeks into thinking there might be an early spring.

The Romans were always worried about the Ides of March. It was a dreadful time for Julius Caesar. What worried most Romans was the demand for atonement. The Ides of March were when all debts must be reconciled.

For us, this year, the Ides of March verify the weather predictions of Stumptown Fil. Our Spring Tease is a thing of the past. The next 2-3 weeks will bring back the chill, wet, breezy conditions that cause tourists to cringe and the moss between our toes to bloom. It's time for our foulies, or maybe slapping on the boards again and visiting the snow-capped mountains.

This image shows the forecast for winds at 18,000 ft (5500M) on Wednesday, March 12, 2025. The dip south of the Arctic Jet is steering the storms (the 2 Low-Pressure Cells bringing our return to winter) south.
Screenshot 2025-03-10 at 8.53.22 AM.png


With the storms comes the chill.
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Here is the view from Rufus. Stay warm.

John

Monday March 10
As stated in the last few reports, our mild, Spring-Fever-inducing weather will end for 2 or 3 weeks, pushing back the warmth for awhile. Here’s the latest scenario.
'Wee bit' of a break today & most of Tue before a WET & blustery series of systems hit the PNW. A wintery pattern for sure, with relatively low freezing level and chilly temps. The 2 key storms will be overnight Tue into Wed and again this coming weekend. Showers and maybe even a rain/snow mix at or near valley floors on Thu. Increasing rain & wind on Fri before a POWERFUL storm moves onshore overnight Sat. Lots of ‘options’ on this storm as to how deep the Low will get, and its track. Either way, expect moderate-to-heavy rain and WINDS this weekend. Power outages are probable; you know the prep drill, just in case.
St Patty’s Day, Monday Mar 17, will remain blustery, with cold showers, on the backside of the weekend storm. Tue the 18th should be dry. Another cold storm moves in on from the north on Wed - probably late morning. WINDY & wet, esp over western WA & BC. The 1st day of Spring 2025 - Thursday Mar 20 - is trending mostly dry until the evening. Fri Mar 21 will likely be dry.
The weekend of Mar 22,23 is trending wet over northern portions of WA on Sat; clearing Sunday. Right now, a cold air mass looks to settle in over the eastern Pacific during the week of Mar 24-28, which typically equates to cold rain, showers and again, fairly low snow levels (not unusual for Mar in the PNW).
Variability in the specifics of our forecast above is a given, however, the overall trend is for a wet & CHILLY period ahead. Spring Fever will be pushed back for awhile.
“A person going nowhere can be sure of reaching his destination."
-Rufus
 

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