• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Corsica Storm.. Computer Models..

Leeward Rail

Leeward Rail

.
Mar 20, 2015
3,095
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg


www.reuters.com

Violent storm kills six on Corsica as island raises new alert

A violent and unexpected storm battered the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on Thursday, killing at least six people including a teenage girl, and meteorologists predicted more bad weather to come.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

The fact that Meteo France didn't predict this and only issued an immediate warning, is interesting.

We have had tstorms with plow winds occur but always with some vague idea they were going to be/could be, bad.

This story says that their computer models got it wrong...

www.connexionfrance.com

Corsica’s fatal storm: Why did alert warnings come so late?

A rare, arched cloud formation signalled the arrival of the violent and sudden storm. We look at how storms are forecast and what went wrong
www.connexionfrance.com www.connexionfrance.com

Seems like its obvious that models based on historical data are a bit.. Off.
Our forecasts in the middle of Canada have been crap since they laid off staff, closed offices and started leaning towards using computer models more and more.
 
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rgranger

rgranger

.
Jan 19, 2010
12,389
Hobie 16 & Rhodes 22 Skeeter Charleston
I have lived through a Derecho once before (June 2012). No warning! Warm summer (sunny) day and suddenly 90+ straight line wind. And they last a long time. This one went on-and-on for 18 hours.


My yard in Virginia suffered 13 very large tree downings. I had a 130 y/o hickory tree snap mid-trunk. Crazy. We were without power for two weeks.

I'm not sure what is unique about Derecho's but it does seem they are harder to predict.
 
Leeward Rail

Leeward Rail

.
Mar 20, 2015
3,095
C&C 30 Mk1 Winnipeg
Eek.. Not fan of shelf clouds... Unless I am in a secure place and can sit with tea watching the mayhem.

I once was canoe camping in the backcountry and we had a fun storm hit.

Nothing in the forecast when we left. We portaged and paddled to our first campsite. It was hot with high humidity... We relaxed and eventually start putting the tent up.
Wind was calm... Until my buddy said... "WOW.. I have never seen THAT before"

At high altitude the clouds were moving very fast...

I said.. "GET THE GEAR IN TENT! I AM GOING TO TIE UP THE CANOE! "

A minute later we hear the wall coming along with the sound of snapping trees.

I told my buddy that I would prefer we could see where the trees were falling..so we stood outside. The temp dropped low enough to see our breath.

The resulting straight line winds took out fishing resorts, boats, cottages, and a ton of trees, like a wide bulldozer.

Our wives were a bit worried until we paddled out safely. It was a cold night, soaking wet, with nothing dry enough to get a fire going.
 
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