• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Chesapeake Bay weather - Spring Change

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,487
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I have been trying to understand the weather patterns that are affecting the Chesapeake Bay as spring begins to tease the sailors with warm days. The only pattern I see is Warm - Cold - Wet - Sunshine, rinse and repeat. One day the Gulf Stream is bringing up warm moist air, only to be followed by the Canadian chill dry cold north winds.

Inconsistency is the norm on the surface charts. Then I looked at the upper air movements, and you can see that the Jet Stream is crossing the country in waves. Perhaps that is the key. Normally, the Jet flows through Canada south of the Arctic Circle. Looking at this series of images over the next 9 days you can see a split jet that sometimes is the weather out of Canada. Then, as the wave moves east, the jet draws the Gulf Stream warmth onto the Chesapeake Bay. The movement of these jet stream ripples appears to be the cause of the changing conditions.

Take advantage of the good days. Maybe enjoy a sail. The only constant pattern I see is that tomorrow will be a change day.

Screenshot 2025-02-28 at 7.46.56 AM.png Screenshot 2025-02-28 at 7.46.11 AM.png Screenshot 2025-02-28 at 7.47.10 AM.png Screenshot 2025-02-28 at 7.47.16 AM.png Screenshot 2025-02-28 at 7.47.26 AM.png
 
May 1, 2011
4,784
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
We've had a lot more whiplash this year than I've seen for quite a while. May hit 70 next week after a cold Sunday, then drop again.
 
  • Like
Likes: jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
22,487
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Quick update: The NOAA Weather Service confirms the schizophrenic weather outlook over the Chesapeake. This is a report for the Wakefield, VA, area. Sunday is reporting as "Cooler."

1740786993679.png