• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

98L Invest --> Tropical Storm Ernesto

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,584
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
98L Invest is still mid Atlantic about 1200nm East of St Lucia. Not well organized. Winds flowing South to NorthEast 20-30 knots. Currently moving towards the Lesser Antilles at a rate of 180nm every 24 hours.

It is one to watch over then next 6 days to see where is enters the Caribbean and how it progresses to the NW.

1723336739098.png
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,584
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Possible. Depending on where it enters the Caribbean and how it turns north.
 
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capta

capta

.
Jun 4, 2009
4,828
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
If I was in the northern Windwards or the Leewards, I'd be heading south, posthaste. Early Tuesday morning I think things might get a bit frisky, for a time, in the islands. It also looks as though The Big Dog is moving east, which could allow this system to turn north after Haiti and not be a bother to anyone south of 20 degrees north, on this side of the Atlantic, anyway. Except possibly Bermuda.
Of course, all this is supposition and way beyond recognized accurate forecasting limits. However, I was not kidding; I would be heading south, way south. I hope y'all stay safe and well.
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,584
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Yes. As I shared in my first post, where it tracks into the Caribbean will be telling as to how it affects the islands and where it exits. The storm edged its way north crossing over the island of Guadeloupe as a Tropical Storm. Its track is currently predicted to move North Westerly to the West of St Kitts and East of Puerto Rico. Once out over open waters the NHC forecasts a northerly fish storm building to a class 2 Hurricane before crossing over Bermuda. Lots of rain, in the path of the storm, predicted for the Spanish Virgin Islands and Eastern Puerto Rico.

1723546496659.png
 
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shemandr

shemandr

.
Jan 1, 2006
7,220
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I don't really understand why The Big Dawg gets to boss the tropical cyclone around. It reminds me of a dog chasing a Grizzly Bear out of the yard.
I would think the high winds of a cyclone would tear through a high pressure dome like a hot knife through butter. Yet that's not the case. I get that the low rotates counterclockwise and the high clockwise so at their junction the winds are blowing the same way - but the high isobars are way spread out as compared to the low. Or is it sinking air of the high vs. the rising air of the low. Or something else?
 
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