50% Chance of Thunderstorms

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ruidh

ruidh

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Oct 1, 2007
227
Oday 23 Manhasset Bay, LI
I'm supposed to go sailing at noon tomorrow. I'll be sailing on a smallish bay I'm probably never more than 15 minutes away from my mooring if I turn the motor on.

"Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms."

How concerned should I be about forecasts of thunderstorms. I can usually see them coming over the horizon. If I plan to head back at the first sign but I might have to wait for a while on the boat for the water taxi to get to me, would I be safe?
 
R

Ross

Keep a weather eye out and enjoy the day.

there is also a 50 percent chance or fair weather. Storm comes up, douse your sails and secure them, button up, in 20 minutes it will be clear again.
 
N

Nice N Easy

Daily occurance

here in the south, that is an almost daily forecast. The 50% part at least. If we didn't sail when the forecast had a thunderstorm in it, we wouldn't sail.
 
R

ruidh

Is it safe?

To wait it out in the cabin of my boat with the mast coming right through the cabin?
 
R

RAD

Roy

"Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms."
That about says the weather for a summer day enjoy the sail and keep a watch and you'll be able to head in quick enough if it starts to get rough
 
R

Ross

probably! But yesterday I saw an old white oak

about 3 feet in diameter and open grown at the bottom of a valley that had perhaps 1/4th of the bark stripped off by lightning and the tree was dead of course. If that had been a sail boat the crew and the boat would be the subject of headlines in the local newspapers.
 
R

RAD

Do a search on lightning in the archive

A sailboat is a Faraday cage with its mast,stays and if you have it bonded to some underwater fitting you have a good chance of not getting hurt, but look it up cause that was an interesting forum awhile back
 
R

Ross

Rad, Much depends upon the intensity of the strike.

kevlar and ceramic body armour does a good job of protecting the combat troops but it is no match for explosive ordinance. A Faraday cage also has its limits. I have seen strand on utility poles chopped into small pieces by lightning.
 
S

Sailor Jack

50% chance here means....

50% chance of thunderstorms in this area means,.. well, we are going to be having thunderstorms but onlt 50% of the area will be effected!!
Like most everyone has said, enjoy the day but be quick to get home when the clouds build.
jack
 
S

seadaddler

Yes Sailing Today

My crew was all calling this morning while it was pouring
buckets of rain here.
I told them to get going and the sun will come out and wind
and we are going sailing today.
I hope my dock neighbor is not on his 40 saber which got hit
a month ago when we get to the boat today,he said so far about
$30,000 in all new electronics.
We keep a good look out for the weather and don't go too far away
from the marina if their is a chance of bad weather and listen to
the VHF.
Do what is safe for you and enjoy some sailing.
Nick
 
M

MoonSailer

Thunderstorms Mean Wind!!!!

During the summer the wind can be absent except around TSs. Yesterday there were storms around but we checked the internet and none were very close. We went sailing expecting little wind. But we were sailing and then after an hour or so some clouds formed and we had a good breeze for about two hours. Then the wind died. We were out in the middle of the lake so I dropped the sails and jumped overboard for a swim. After swimming for 30 minutes or so we motored to the dock. Of Course the wind came up a little to complicate docking . But no paint lost. The wind again dropped after we were tied up. It seems that I can always depend on wind while docking!!!.
TSs can be dangerous but many if not most sailers that I know pretty much accept them as part of summer sailing. There is a chance of a lightening strike ...but the odds are in our favor. My boat is almost 30 years old and has never been struck by lightening!!!! Pretty good odds!!!!!!
 
W

Wanderer138

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Apr 19, 1999
1,670
Pearson Wanderer Titusville, Florida
Keep a weather eye out

Strong thunderstorms are a daily occurrence here in the summer. They develop very quickly in the high heat and humidity, so rather than waiting for the obvious signs (anvil head, outflow etc.) we watch for stacks of rapidly growing cumulus. These are the most common precursor of a summer storm. Sometimes they grow so fast that a pileus cloud forms at the top. See link:

http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/SkyPix/pileus.htm

Storms often travel against the prevaling surface wind, so just because a storm is downwind of you does not mean you're safe. Track its movement every few minutes. If the storm doesn't appear to be moving and it's not getting smaller then it's probably coming directly towards you. Begin reducing sail as an approaching storm often brings freshening wind. Sometimes it can help get you home faster. Be safe.

Peter
H23 "Raven"
 
B

Benny

You will be reasonably safe.

With your boat well tied to a mooring it is not going to go anywhere. It may get bumpy but you will be OK. Regarding lightning I believe the O-Day 23 has a deck stepped mast and what you may see going through the cabin is just a step support. There is a theory that an ungrounded mast offers a cone of protection measured at water level with its radius equal to the length of the mast. Anything inside this cone will be spared a direct strike. There are other theories that say a grounded mast may attract strikes but disipate its effects. The hard reality is that the power of lightning is so great that it will go were it will with little regard for whatever we may do. The statistics are in your favor very few if any sailors are ever hit by lightning on a sailboat; at least in all my years I have not heard of a single one. Electrical equipment is another story as their circuitry get often fried by short overloads. Stay away from any metal inside the cabin and the statistics are in your favor you will survive.
 
C

Capt. Ed

New England Thunderstorms

The N.E. has been in a trough this summer that won't go away. We have been trying to do an extended cruise ,but have wisely stayed local . 50% does not keep us at the mooring ,but we do look at the latest radar ,and keep a sharp weather eye out for storms . Here in the N.E. we usually can not see the thunderstorm clouds . We use the alert function on the VHF and except for storms that develop right overhead NOAA does a good job at giving us 20/40 mins. warning to get safe . In July we have had tstorms nearly every day .Can't wait for west winds !
 
J

Jim

You can survive a tunderstorm

you just need to be ready for them. Sails and Canvas should be down is the thunderhead is a big anvil shaped cloud. Wind sheer is you biggest problem. Put the boat in auto pilot and don’t touch anything metal until the lighting is over.

See my picture. This storm hit us off Myrtle Beach and ripped the bimini off the boat. It was flying straight up in the air and the poles were banging all over the boat.
 
B

barometer

On line school for weather

National Weather Service have an online school for wx. One topic is TSTMS, check out http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/tstorms/tstorms_intro.htm
 
R

ruidh

My O23 Has a Keel Stepped Mast

"I believe the O-Day 23 has a deck stepped mast and what you may see going through the cabin is just a step support."

Most do. My 1971 pop-top has a keel stepped mast. It goes through a hole in the cabin top.

"There is a theory that an ungrounded mast offers a cone of protection measured at water level with its radius equal to the length of the mast. Anything inside this cone will be spared a direct strike. There are other theories that say a grounded mast may attract strikes but disipate its effects. The hard reality is that the power of lightning is so great that it will go were it will with little regard for whatever we may do."

Thus my concern. I don;t believe the "Faraday cage" theory because of the great huge gaps in the shroud system, but it must provide substancial protection.

"The statistics are in your favor very few if any sailors are ever hit by lightning on a sailboat; at least in all my years I have not heard of a single one. Electrical equipment is another story as their circuitry get often fried by short overloads. Stay away from any metal inside the cabin and the statistics are in your favor you will survive."

I read a bunch of boating blogs and they all warn against thunderstorms. But they are generally targeted at power boaters.

I am also concerned about the electrical system. I, of course, have wires for the anchor light, steaming light and deck light running inside the mast and connecting to the rest of the electrical system. I have no expensive electronics.

As it turned out, I did not go yesterday. the weather was very nasty in Long Island with thunderstorms passing through the area all day. <sigh>
 
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