stormy weather

[JamesG161]

We're heading in to tornado and hail season

The good news is there was just a minor La Niña or in my Spanish La Niñita lasted 2 short months, thus the late spring, since the Pacific Ocean equator temps are very cool now.

It is the Cold Pacific Northwest meeting the Warm Gulf Air in the Middle that causes the rapid shearing effects.
Both are below normal temperatures. Should be less this year.

So should be the Hurricane season.
Jim...

PS: Kansas is not the best spot to be for sure.

 

[dlochner]

It is the Cold Pacific Northwest meeting the Warm Gulf Air in the Middle that causes the rapid shearing effects.
Both are below normal temperatures. Should be less this year.

So should be the Hurricane season.
Jim...

The folks in Colorado beg to differ. They think this year will be an above average hurricane season.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/05/us/hurricane-season-2018-forecast-wxc/index.html

Of course what do a bunch of mountain boys and girls know about tropical weather?

 

[JamesG161]

bunch of mountain boys and girls

If it was not for 2 DIRECT island hits last year, it would have been a big nothing of Intensity.

Colorado does have the most advanced models, but they missed it last year, a bunch.

Mainly because the largest percentage went way south of the typical African spin offs. Really to a sea area that has very few data buoys for their models.

Harvey was a freak of bucket brigading water from Gulf to Flat Texas. Not wind.

But Intensity, not frequency is the Key.

The SUN drives Hurricanes. The SUN is now intensity dormant for at least 6 years.

Jim...

PS: I went through both Nate and Cindy watching from the Marina Bar for the daylight parts.

 

[jon hansen]

Thanks @JamesG161

And everyone else. This post has been a real education. I've always measured pressure in units of atmospheres so looking at inches of Hg does not give me an intuitive feel.
In order to calibrate my head.. I did some conversions. For the rest of you who do not think in inches of Hg here are some conversions that I made for myself.

Normal Air Pressure​

1 Atm = 29.92" Hg = 1013.25 millibar

1935 Labor Day = a 12% pressure gradient​

0.88 Atm = 26.3" Hg = 892 millibar

Camille land fall = 9.8% pressure gradient​

0.902 = 27" Hg = 914 millibar

A 10% Gradient​

0.9 Atm = 26.93" Hg = 912 millibar

Katrina land fall = 8.4% pressure gradient​

0.916 Atm = 27.4" Hg = 928 millibar​

It seems like most weather maps use millibar. As I was reading up on this I ran across the following rule

1. Isobar lines may only pass through pressures of 1000 + or - 4. In other words, allowable lines are 992, 996, 1000, 1004, 1008, and so on.

Some questions that remain in my mind are.. how close do two lines need to be in order to create a approximate 10 mph breeze? or a 20 mph breeze? etc. I think if I had that info in my head, I could look at a weather map and make much better predictions about wind speed in an area.anybody here know this info?

i have a great book to explain how and why the air moves on our planet. plus it was written by one of the all time greatest yachtsmen, for sailors, so that they can get the most out of these wind toys that we all enjoy so much. he was an airline pilot, a meteorologist, (for olympic sailing teams) a champion long distance glider pilot, a world class sailing racer, an intensely curious man, it is a must read for any serious sailor. its a must read for any serious racer that wants to win every race.

'High performance sailing' by Frank Bethwaite. Half the book is dedicated to understanding the wind. then the rest of the book is how to get any type of sailing vessel operating at its peak.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3433868-high-performance-sailing
he was one of the best olympic coaches ever. that's right ,COACH, he knew how to teach sailors. the book is the best teaching tool i have found.
at top level racing, everyone can sail, every boat is prepared, it is the understanding of where and why the wind is that gets the trophy every time.
AND, this same knowledge makes cruising so much more fun.

 

[Gunni]

Vox.com just did a story about this strange winter weather behavior, but it also applies to summer storm activity. Most notably the storm systems that linger over the mid Atlantic in a manner that they did not used to do. Essentially, a warming Arctic is causing the high altitude wind flows to slow and that causes the jet stream to slow and meander. Winter storms come further south, move slower and Nor'easters and summer storms are more frequent and longer lasting. Nice graphics of climate patterns and jet stream flows:
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/17/17242782/warm-arctic-extreme-weather-thaw

 

[agprice22]

Snowed all day here yesterday. Only a dusting settled for a while. The snow was actually preferable to the high winds and rain from the day before.

 

[JamesG161]

Snowed all day here yesterday

There is always Good News with Bad News Snow.
Snow, like ice, is stored COLD energy. What makes Snow and Ice? Refrigerators!

What is our Earth's Refrigerator?
Outer Space

So what...

That colder water [snow/ice melting] flows to the Atlantic and Gulf.
Jim...

PS: Ice at 32°F has 80 times the stored "Cold" as liquid water at 32°F.

 

[rgranger]

PS: Ice at 32°F has 80 times the stored "Cold" as liquid water at 32°F.

Sorry! I really tried to just walk on past this one but I couldn't....

I'd have to ask.. "80 times what"?

I think I know what your are trying to poke at. The heat of fusion of of water is 79.7 calories per gram so I guess you could call it about 80 but what I think you mean to say is that it takes about 80 times the heat energy to melt a gram of ice from zero degree ice to zero degree water than it does to raise a gram of water by one degree Celsius. They are not comparable units. One is a melting process and one is a warming process. You would have to specify the range of temperatures through which you are warming the water in order to compare heat capacities. Water stays at zero through the entire phase change.

 

[justsomeguy]

There is no "cold". Only a lack of "heat".

I think...

 

[rgranger]

There is no "cold". Only a lack of "heat".

I think...

Yes...you thinks correctly.

Sort of like saying there is no black of night. Just a lack of light.

 

[JamesG161]

There is no "cold". Only a lack of "heat".

Heat is heat.
Temperature is just an attempt to measure the Heat content of water.
Hurricanes/Storms are Heat Engines.

Heat flows, not temperature. Analogy: (Heat=Amps Temperature=Volts) and (Heat=Flow Temperature = Pressure)

As Ices melts it needs @rgranger 's Heat of Fusion 79.9 from the Atmosphere's Heat [global cooling]

My point is colder water, less storm intensity.
Jim...

 

[justsomeguy]

And there's no dark side of the Moon, either.

 

[shemandr]

There was a serious lack of heat around here yesterday with, lack of heat flowing, at about 20 knots!

 

[jon hansen]

Gunni, i enjoyed the Vox. com video. thanks

 

[JamesG161]

One is a melting process and one is a warming process

Both require HEAT to change Temperature. Ice "sucks up" 80 times the Heat as water [per gram] from the Atmosphere.

I can't wait to use ICE to "suck up" the Heat from my Adult Beverage on a hot summer day.
Jim...

PS: We think cold is colder than our skin temperature.

 

[Allowishish]

And there's no dark side of the Moon, either.

it's all dark...

 

[justsomeguy]

it's all dark...

AAMOF.
h/t- Pink Floyd.

 

[dlochner]

And there's no dark side of the Moon, either.

My Pink Floyd album says otherwise!

 

[dlochner]

My point is colder water, less storm intensity.

Temperature gradients are a big deal however. The greater the gradient, the greater and faster the energy transfer. Expect stronger winds and stormier conditions. Think about a sea breeze, if the waters are cooler there will be a greater temperature gradient between the water and land, increasing wind speeds and increasing likelihood of T-storms.

 

[justsomeguy]

My Pink Floyd album says otherwise!

There's a quiet voice-over somewhere on the album that states "There is no 'dark side of the Moon.' Matter of fact it's all dark."

Pretty big temperature gradient here in Tucson today. Isobars are too close together too.