My point in my recent post "The Circle"-it's man against technology!
My point in my recent post "The Circle"-it's man against technology!
You haven’t been paying attention. While shore/water interaction will always create differences in mostly cloud cover, the super-important global 3 day wind forecast has gotten insanely good. Against time, this corollates actual vs predicted pressure, which predicts wind. Over 98% accurate. The 10 day, which used to be almost a coin flip, is now 90% accurate.Improved weather forecasting? They are close 10% of the time and way off 90%. If they built cars with that reliability they would fall to pieces at the factory door. Weather forecasting is the only prefession that would never make it anywhere else. They cannot even guess right. All the education is to support the pay.
I look at radar image and pay no attention to forecasts. If they forecast rain 80% it will probably be a beautiful sunny day.
Beneteau puts slippery floors on their powerboats. They look like travel trailers.
> <prepare to have your mind blown. This pretty much defines what is a modern blue water boat.
I've NEVER seen a 10 day forecast that was right. Never!The 10 day, which used to be almost a coin flip, is now 90% accurate.
Jackdaw, you are going next year? You need crew?Great decision... May not be here 10 years from now...
How true. When Jodi and I started dating, she would remark to her friends that when she asked me what the weather was going tot be like, I would say '10-14 out of the SW'. When she asked me about the sun, I said I didn't notice.This is off topic but cruisers generally don't care about the rain in the forecast. We expect to get rained on at some point during a passage.
The 10-day forecasts are not always "wrong." Some minor aspects of the details may change as that 10th day approaches, but otherwise they're basically sound. For example, the guys at the weather service can detect the formation of weather (cold) fronts in the Arctic, and predict their respective arrivals in Southern CA 10 days out, etc. Statistically speaking, high pressure then builds in the Great Basin following the fronts which brings NE winds typically of advisory level strength. So, they can predict the fronts' arrivals and the conditions that likely will follow them. Actually, a very similar thing occurs during late fall, winter, and spring in Florida. A cold front predicted several days in advance marches through, followed by high pressure that builds off the coast of South Carolina bringing strong NE winds across Florida the next day and for a few days hence. That's when the great sailing is to be had along Florida's SW coast (although it might be a little too cool for some folks). One to three, or four, days following the passage of a cold front. VERY PREDICTABLE. Clean, fresh air on strong to medium gusty NE winds, and blue skies! Just fabulous. Gotta love it!!I've NEVER seen a 10 day forecast that was right. Never!
I note all the time that NOAA usually gets the weather right, it's the time schedule they mess up on. But, 10 days out? Not even close.
Lots of good truths in that post!From a guy who is going around the world, I can tell you that 36+ Catalinas are fine designed just fine. The way I see it as far as safety and strength, it goes Catalina, Hunter, some of the others....then Beneteaus. I see lots of Beneteaus out here but mostly in the 40s and 50s range as well as all the other production boats. I do not think any of the smaller (<35) are suitable but the bigger ones are.
I sail a 1996 Hunter 376. It is a boat that has a good design and is just as strong as most other boats crossing the Pacific, but the interior was poorly constructed. I fixed that. Sure, there are some heavy, solidly built boats out here, but most are just medium weighted boats. Take the 360 IP which has about the same hull size as my 376 if you do not include the swim platform: if you subtract the keels from the boats, they basically weigh the same, but yet the common thought is that IPs are built like tanks and Hunters are built like IKEA furniture. There is a lot of mis-information out there and that is bred by exterior looks and rumors.
Yes, it is the captain and crew who will determine if the boat is good enough. Some boats of all makes have defects and it is up to the captain to find and fix those defects. That and maintenance is the largest determining factor in whether a boat is capable for crossing oceans. Last year there was a guy crossing in a old 42' Catalina and he broke a couple stays. Luckily he noticed it in time and took corrective action so he could keep going, but the real issue is he was sailing on original rigging...about 30 years old. He was not a smart captain but he sure did think he was. He was one of those know it all types. I found great humor in that
It seems to me that the British followed by the Americans are the ones who are most concerned about taking the right boat with the French seeming to care the least.
I am going to wrap this up into one simple rule: if you have to ask if a boat is capable, then you are not capable (yet). Sorry but that tells me you do not know enough about boats to be able to find defects, find maintenance issues and fix them before and during your travels. A captain needs to know his boat inside and out. He needs to know how thick things are, where are the weak points, how are things put together, how much mileage/usage each and every part of the boat has, what needs fixing and/or improving and how to do it. If you do not own the boat you can't know all of this, but you should be able to figure out most of this by inspecting it.
OK thats interesting. How are you measuring strength? Certainly not on hull failures; that happily almost never happens. My measure is oilcanning, and my personal experience has Hunters doing that more than all other boats I've been on combined.I am not comparing rides, but strength of the boat. Yes, there were times I wished I had the keel of an IP, but more often I have been very glad I had the keel I have so I can sail instead of motor. A friend of mine has an older IP the same size as my boat. We were marina slip neighbors for years back in Texas. I met up with them a few years ago in the Bahamas and we did a few legs together. In 8 knots true wind, close reaching, I was able to sail at 6+ knots. They were sailing a 3.5 knots and had to turn on their motor. I sail in a lot of light winds that other's can't like this year's trip to American Samoa we had 8-11 knots true wind at 160 true wind angle and I was sailing with jib poled out and main doing 5-7 knots in the water.
Exactly what I said. My personal observations. I say that majority of them were earlier models, 28-34 feet.I understand what oilcanning is, just wondering how you are measuring it to determine Hunters are worse than others. And what size Hunters?