So, here's the deal: I thought I'd found the problem - the belt seemed loose. I tightened it up and the next time I went out, there was no wind so I motored for four hours or so and the engine ran fine. Problem solved, right? Wrong.
Yesterday I went out again. At first it was fine. I went outside the Golden Gate Bridge and ran into adverse current on the way back so cranked up the engine again. This time, it overheated. One thing I realized: This time I was in fairly rough seas. I hung over the stern and observed that the waves were high enough to wash up and over the exhaust outlet. It seemed to me that in this case, no raw water was coming out, only exhaust. The temp gauge was registering up at the top, so I shut it down.
An hour or so later, I was back inside the Bay where the water was calm. After awhile I cranked up the engine again. I only ran it at low speed so maybe that was the difference, but in the calm water it didn't overheat, and I could see raw water being expelled. Is it possible that the muffler is bad? Could that cause it to overheat, and could that be related to no raw water being expelled in a rougher sea state? (Note, again: This is a Universal 35 HP engine with a little over 1100 hours on it. To my knowledge the muffler has never been changed.)