Weather forecast...

[jssailem]

Spring is Delayed...

That is the message from weather man Rufus. Looking out for the next 3 plus weeks Rufus is indicating even Phil's shadow forecast was too hopeful. April will bring showers and cold. Not much time is available for soil turning as it will be mud.

Find a cup of coffee or something stronger and wrap up in that snuggie...

Monday April 10​

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An unwanted turn in the long-range outlook has been presenting on wx model charts since our last report. In ’times like these’, forecasting is something we’d rather avoid. But, it is our call, so Mug up and dare to read on.​

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Rain will taper off a bit later today, however, it will remain wet with cooler air moving in behind the current slow moving front. Showers & thunderstorms, with small hail, possible tomorrow, Tue. Yes, snowflakes are possible down to rather low elevations for April. A small, tight surface Low is charting to drop into NW OR around Astoria Tue night, so, OR Patrons, don’t be surprised with rather strong wind gusts for a few hours before daylight Wed. Mid-week looks mostly dry, turning warmer by Fri. The unwanted - ready?​

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The stretch of dry, WARM afternoons we have earnestly waited for is now disappearing off the charts. Yikes. The culprit is an upper-level Low - and associated, broad surface Low - will move from NW Siberia to cross the Bering Sea, before settling west of the Alaskan Panhandle by this coming weekend. So what, you ask? Well, the warmer, dry air mass to end this week may ‘yield’ to that Low by Sunday Apr 16. RAIN will return Sunday afternoon, along with a colder, showery pattern to start the next week. Temps late this week, and early in the weekend will likely be the warmest of the season.​

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Wed Apr 19 may be the driest day of NEXT week. Another wet & warmer system is charting to move in from the west by Thu the 20th. Late Fri and early Sat Apr 22 should be dry, but then a wet Sunday will follow.​

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Always hope for the best. Long-time Patrons know that often model solutions return to earlier scenarios, so we hope that is the case this time. Spring 2023 needs to show up for longer than a couple of days!​

 

[Tally Ho]

70’s in Chicago this week, but cooler next week. I tried to launch Tally Ho last Thursday, but Travel Lift had a flat.

Will try again this week.

But I got a call from North Sail today….my modified main sail is ready to pick up….no charge

Will need to get up there and pick it up this week sometime.

Spring is close….I patched the lawn this weekend and have a sprinkler going as I write this.

Greg

 

[jssailem]

Our lawn is soaked. We have had over 1" of rain in the past 24 hours. Temps in the low 40's all day... Grey... drizzle with a rain shower every hour. Like the sky moisture is getting squeezed in spasms.
It just keeps on coming.

I'm trying not to complain. When I splashed and moved my boat from the yard to the slip It was in the high 50's and sunshine. I's spread grass seed by it would just get washed away.

Eventually this too will pass.

 

[Hayden Watson]

You're Killin' me Smalls!
I got my new sails on 3/28 and got them on the boat just before dark. Then on 3/29 we went out for a short sail in 4-6 knots with a sunny 60º high. Since then we have had nothing but rain and cold. Our plan is to go out the first day that is over 50º and not pouring.
Hoping that maybe Friday or Sunday might work.

 

[mermike]

Boise hit 80 today, and will cool off just in time for our return. The trip back from Hope Island was all iron genny except for 30 minutes or so heading up to Skyline Marina for fuel and pumpout. Either too much wind or not enough on this trip.

 

[Hello Below]

Got off the dock mid morning yesterday. Had a great sunny sail from Maple Bay to Bedwell Harbour. Yippie Ki-Yay, 2 for 1 at Poet’s Cove Marina. Had a great anniversary dinner at Syrens Bistro & Lounge. Thank you Rufus/John.
Decent weather today and tomorrow then lookout get hunker down from a fresh South Easterly starting Saturday night and well into Monday.

 

[jssailem]

Yes... Sunday through Tuesday promises to be blowing hard enough to batten down the hatches and shorten the sails kind of weather... The wind speed is in knots. Red usually means small craft warnings. Listen to the Weather forecast on the VHF channels 1-4. They will be lively.

 

[Hollyberry]

Last weekend was wet and windy enough!!.. Had a great sail but then hunkered down for two days in 20-25 knots and heavy downpour. Of course Monday's trip home was a millpond.....

 

[jssailem]

Grab your SunGlasses and those shorts you hid in the closet 6 months ago.... The FORECAST is coming for FUN in the SUN>..

Here is the prognosticator Rufus to share the good cheer.

Friday April 21

Finally, a long-range forecast that Patrons are gonna love. Yes, we do believe the models ‘have something” this time around. Curious?

Each day this weekend will still present the chance for a shower or two, although that may remain confined to north of Portland. Temps will remain on the cooler side, but not as cold as last week with that pesky wind in our faces. The next chance for showers arrives on Monday; however, latest model solutions are trending this threat ‘away’ - so we may simply have a mostly cloudy day to start the ‘best’ weather week of the season.

Next week is looking absolutely awesome, relative to the seemingly endless ‘winter’ pattern the past two months. High temps on Tues will tease the first 70 degree day in about 6 months for the north Willamette Valley. Wednesday 70 to 70+ is quite probable. Temps may be a tad cooler around the Puget Sound, but hold on - plenty of warmer weather has been trending on the model charts for several days now. Expect each day after Monday next week to trend warmer. The Puget Sound & SW BC will also warm considerably next Thu & Fri Apr 27,28. Medford region could top 80 on Friday. Eastern basins will also be warm. This major pattern shift sets the PNW up for a splendid ‘exit weekend’ for April.

That’s right. Next weekend - the 29th & 30th - is likely to present the PNW with a continuation of the warmest temps this year, to date. A Low pressure ‘cell’ is currently modeled to track SW of OR, adding a bit more humidity to the air mass, helping hold in the 'feeling of warmth' across the region. Temperatures in 70s to lower 80s to wrap up a cold April. Good news. That same warmth is charting to CONTINUE into early May.

For the first week of May, we are seeing a dry, warm pattern holding throughout the PNW. Early in the week, that Low mentioned above is likely to spin off some cloudiness & possible thunderstorms over the southern Cascades & SE OR, as well as showers along the coast of California to start, then across the Golden State to end the week. Idaho will gets showers, too. Again, the west side of OR & WA, and southern BC should remain dry & warm. (Full disclosure: that Low may drift closer to the OR coast which could bring moisture farther north across the Willamette Valley and SW WA. For now, though, we forecast dry.)

RAIN will be back with a wallop overnight May 5 on through the first weekend of May. After that? Well, it’s too early for the charts to indicate, however, the overall upper-atmosphere wind pattern has shifted from our colder, wet cycle to a seasonal norm for May. We’re 'gonna love it', if that verifies.

 

[Tally Ho]

I finally got Tally Ho in the water this week…but our 80F days turned cold…43F right now . Just got a freeze warning through Monday

But I bent on my new jib yesterday, commissioned the water tanks, and climbed 3/4 up the mast with my new ascenders to rig my lazy Jack lines…

Next up, install Mack Pack, newly modified main sail, and get out for a sail

Greg

 

[jssailem]

Hey Cruisers. I know I am not yet with you on the water, but at the least I can share a bit of weather information for you to enjoy your time.

This is from my friend Rufus regarding the first couple of weeks in July.
Enjoy the 4th of July fireworks.
How about sharing you experiences... Where were the best fireworks of 2023.

Monday July 3​

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HOT pattern ahead for a couple days, then cooling into seasonal norms. Enjoy the holiday, Patron.​

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The advertised ‘heat up’ is here, so expect temperatures to pop into the upper 90s, to near 100, in many areas on the 4th and 5th. Afternoon breezes not be as strong as the past several days. It will cool down a few degrees, as marine air begins to work inland starting overnight Wed in the southern Willamette Valley. Cooler for the Puget Sound, too, esp by Fri.​

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A few clouds & a slight chance for stray showers may form over the Cascades, but other than that, there is no precipitation expected around the PNW until about July 12 & 13. As noted, temps will cool down, mainly in the 70s to low 80s west side by the weekend and through early the week of July 10-14.​

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A Low pressure trough is charting to push inland around Thu the 13th, which will introduce mid-summer showers to the PNW, esp north of Chehalis. Another notch cooler for a few days.​

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We expect the next ‘heat up’ to arrive sometime during the week of July 17-21. Too early to peg max temps, but it will be mid-summer, so temps in the 90s may tease out. Stay tuned.​

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Enjoy the HOT & DRY Independence Day. Stay fire safe.​

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“The first of earthly blessings, independence.” -Edward Gibbon, 18th century historian​

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-Rufus​

 

[SoSound]

How about sharing you experiences... Where were the best fireworks of 2023.

Well, as long as you asked... our backyard fireworks were GREAT!

Some people even stuck around for lunch today.

I'm pretty sure that's the biggest boat that I've ever seen aground on a low tide.

 

[kappykaplan]

biggest boat that I've ever seen aground on a low tide

Wow!

 

[jssailem]

Hey Cruisers... This week looks to be nice weather. even a little breezes may fill your sails.

From the desk of Rufus...
Monday July 10

So, let’s get to it this morning, shall we? Mug time.

Cool onshore breeze will hold down temps for the first portion of this week, with a notable heat-up coming by the weekend. Temps will climb into the upper 70s (Puget Sound region) to low 80s by Thu, with hotter temps due to arrive this weekend. There will be an afternoon breeze each day - with Sunday & Monday looking quite windy in the afternoons, esp the Gorge. Temps will top in the 90s in many locations. Evapotranspiration will increase notably; water-up.

The week of July 17-21 is trending a tad cooler than the weekend, but it will be warmer than we have had the past few days. Breezy afternoons continue, with temps in the 80s in most locations; warmer east side, per usual.

No rain on the charts, other than a couple weak systems that will bring cloudiness & showers to the Alaskan Panhandle and far north Vancouver Island (for those cruising). Overall, a decent July pattern.

(Again, thanks for your understanding our absence last Friday as helping a friend took top priority.)

“Some minds are like concrete - thoroughly mixed and permanently set."

-Rufus

 

[Hayden Watson]

That sounds great. I am leaving for a 2-week solo cruise while my wife is out of town and plan on sailing wherever the wind blows me. I will probably head south because going to the Islands this time of year means windless days.

 

[jssailem]

FORECAST BU RUFUS
Nice Finish for July
Friday July 23

Let’s get right to the forecast. Refill and read on.

Pleasant weekend ahead, with temps in the low to mid 80s, slightly cooler around the sound. Cooler pattern, with chance for drizzle or scattered showers starting early next week, but that cloudy/damp period will be limited to north of Chehalis. Western OR will cool down a few degrees, with some morning marine clouds, while remaining dry. Heat keeps going east side on into ID.

Warm Wed through Fri next week, as the ridge of high pressure begins to slowly rebuild over the PNW. We’ll begin to get ‘toasty' starting Sunday July 30. The ‘heat dome’ making news across the desert SW will expand west, then north, as August gets underway. This cycle will likely present the hottest days, thus far, for 2023. Triple digit readings are probable, at times, for large portions of the west, including Willamette Valley, SW WA and east side. That said, the key takeaway is for a possible string of 90+ degree days that will make the dog days of summer uncomfortable, even with a northerly breeze. Patrons in southern BC will warm up, too, but not to excessive levels (per current model runs). Got a swimming site?

Concurrent with the heat-up will be increasing monsoonal storms across the desert SW, moving northward over mountains feeding the Colorado River, which will bring on rapid melt of the heavy snow pack, continuing positive ‘refilling’ of Lake Powell & Lake Mead.

Third Cup: Dr Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Science Professor at Univ of Washington, posted a fine piece in his blog on July 20th titled “Is Global Warming Causing Massive Heatwaves?” Worth the read at cliffmass.blogspot.com

Bottom line: August will start out quite toasty, so enjoy the relatively pleasant summer temps as we journey through the last 11 days of July.

“Just think how happy you would be if you lost everything you now have, and then suddenly got it all back."

-Rufus

 

[MikeHoncho]

Time to head north

 

[jssailem]

I am heading to Everett tomorrow to start the work. If you come up, I'll have a bottle of wine to share.