• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Maybe we have earned it

jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,206
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Does May promise to be a reward? Rufus says we will see sunshine.


Monday May 6

Only two damp, chilly days to go until --> ☀ Lots of Sunshine ☀

A long-waited WARM-UP arrives soon. But first, cold air moving in today - Monday - presenting showers & thunderstorms across much of the region. On & off peaks of sun between the showers, but the air will remain quite chilly for May. That all changes abruptly on Wed May 8. High pressure ridge begins to build up over the PNW, ushering in the WARMEST stretch of weather thus far in 2024!

Indeed, sunshine returns, with warming each day later this week. Current projections are for temps on Fri & Sat popping up into the 80s. (Some model runs even hint at a chance for a 90+ here & there about the PNW.) The coming weekend looks absolutely awesome. Dry & warm. Temps may tap down a few degrees come Sunday, as onshore flow increases. Lots of pink faces possible at work or school come next Monday the 13th, but oh the joy of outdoor warmth & sunshine.

Right now, we see the dry period continuing through the week of May 13 - 17. The onshore component will hold temps in the pleasant zone (not too hot, not too cold) all that week. There should be a notable west wind up the Columbia River Gorge - go windsurfers!

With some variation, models do project a return to showery, cool conditions around Sunday or Monday, May 19,20. However, that downturn may be short-lived, as high pressure is on the charts to rebuild an onshore push by Wed the 22nd, for a return to pleasant conditions.

A quote used in 2009: “Men fight for freedom and then start making laws to get rid of it."

-Rufus
 
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Hayden Watson

Hayden Watson

.
Apr 5, 2009
2,827
Catalina '88 C30 tr/bs Oak Harbor, WA
What is your forecast for 11-12 for the RWR and 13-20 for a cruise. It looks like it will be sunny, but will we have wind?
 
kloudie1

kloudie1

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Nov 6, 2006
9,908
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Did a 4 day mini cruise with an old sailing buddy mid last month. It was good to be back around the gulf islands off the Mississippi coast. IMG_2021.jpeg
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,206
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Prognosis is not good for the sailing race, Hayden. Light winds and plenty of sunshine appear to be the call for the day.
Good tactical planning and conderation for an anchor on Sat night to keep you from losing ground might be considered at or around Possession Point.

The Ebb Tide will be big with a -2ft predicted on the 11th at Port Townsend.
1715099978127.png

I sent you and email.
 
jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,206
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Hayden Watson said:
What is your forecast for... 13-20 for a cruise.
Click to expand
My crystal ball is at at the edge of her weather vision. The 13th through the 16th are looking to be very nice days to be on the water. You will be under the influence provided by a High pressure cell centered about 1000nm SW of the Juan DFuca on the 13th. The High cell is blocking a Low storm cell that is North and West of Vancouver Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Watch the clouds as you enjoy our cruise.

More info will be availble over the next several days.
 
Hayden Watson

Hayden Watson

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Apr 5, 2009
2,827
Catalina '88 C30 tr/bs Oak Harbor, WA
We have been watching the weather and was worried about the loads of sun. The last couple o times my daughter and family came home to go on a cruise, it was in July, and we had lots of sun and no wind at all. This year we opted for May hoping to finally get to sail.
 
Will Gilmore

Will Gilmore

.
Oct 19, 2017
7,758
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
jssailem said:
A quote used in 2009: “Men fight for freedom and then start making laws to get rid of it."

-Rufus
Click to expand
So true. They do that here in Live Free or Die, New Hampshire, all the time. City folk become enamored with the simple, free, rural life, so they buy a house up here. Then, they get involved with local politics and begin a push to turn their little patch of the perfect life into the one they ran away from. It's all because of fear. They are afraid if they don't restrict freedom, someone else will come and take it away from them.

-Will
 
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jssailem

jssailem

SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
Oct 22, 2014
21,206
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
justsomeguy said:
Is that legal? :)
Click to expand
YES
No penatly for sitting still at anchor. Considered Good Seamanship to wait out a foul tide.
  • Start your motor = DQ.
  • run aground. Need a toe = DQ
  • Run out of time seekign the finish line = DNF
Better have enough rode...
Deep waters. 2-3 knots current reported in center of Possession Sound the route North.
Get caught in the middle where the waters are 100 Fathoms (600 Feet) and your heading to Seattle.
1715178641751.png

This is a fun race with a variety of tactical considerations.
 
Hayden Watson

Hayden Watson

.
Apr 5, 2009
2,827
Catalina '88 C30 tr/bs Oak Harbor, WA
justsomeguy said:
Is that legal? :)
Click to expand
I have anchored in this race more times that I care to remember. The first time was south of the Possesion point bell bouy right about the 24-fathom line. only time I have anchord in 145' of water. I either dropped the hook then or I was going to get flushed all the way back to Pt Wilson before I saw another "anchorable depth".
 
Hayden Watson

Hayden Watson

.
Apr 5, 2009
2,827
Catalina '88 C30 tr/bs Oak Harbor, WA
jssailem said:
YES
No penatly for sitting still at anchor. Considered Good Seamanship to wait out a foul tide.
  • Start your motor = DQ.
  • run aground. Need a toe = DQ
  • Run out of time seeking the finish line = DNF
Better have enough rode...
Deep waters. 2-3 knots current reported in center of Possession Sound the route North.
Get caught in the middle where the waters are 100 Fathoms (600 Feet) and your heading to Seattle.
This is a fun race with a variety of tactical considerations.
Click to expand
In this race, starting your engine is not an automatic DSQ. Back in 2008 when I was the commodore of WINSA, I wrote into the rules that use of engine was allowable to clear your boat out of the way of shipping. avoiding imminent grounding or to render assistance. Here is section 12. of the sailing instructions. I thought it was prudent given that we were sailing in a major shipping lane, parallel to the VTS and in currents often exceeding 5-knts.

12. USE OF ENGINE Use of engine for thrust is prohibited while racing except:
(a) To help another vessel in distress.
(b) To avoid impeding commercial traffic.
(c) To avoid an imminent grounding.

If power is used, it must be reported to the Race Committee at the finish line. Also, a written report must be made on a protest form, showing the location, time, duration of power use, speed, direction of exit and that the competitive position of the yacht was not improved. If the last item cannot be demonstrated adequately, a time penalty may be imposed.
 
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