Invest 98L and potential 99L

[JamesG161]

Off the West African coast 98L can possible become a storm, but is trending to NW and should die before any land impact.
In order to appease the Storm Gods of ancient Rome, I am going to quote a summary of the Atlantic season forecast by Colorado State University who is top in the field of modeling storm behavior...

Mixed signals remain
There is still considerable uncertainty shrouding how the rest of the season will unfold, according to CSU. The variables in play include the potential development of La Niña (still a question mark in its timing and strength), as well as the unorthodox North Atlantic pattern now in place.

The are worried more about Invest 99L expected soon and could cross the Atlantic to the Caribbean , if moving fast, in about...
10 Days

I will continue my updates for those who like storm news ahead of the News.
Jim...

 

[shemandr]

Please do and thank you. A head's up on these storms can help us all prepare.
Can you elaborate on the term "Invest 98L" or "Invest99L?" Is that part of a nomenclature?

 

[JamesG161]

Can you elaborate on the term "Invest 98L" or "Invest99L?" Is that part of a nomenclature?

It, now mind you I am guessing a bit, means special INVESTigation. It is a term used to focus weather agencies and special interests, which kicks in satellite tracking, microwave satellites to determine moisture content and computer models on an area of interest.
They are normally spun off the West African/ Cape Verde Island area. Some do occur in the East Caribbean too.
Kinda "Be on the lookout!".

Early computer models on Invest 98L is almost random at this point, but in a few days, a course will "Steady On!". All models and "behind the scene chatter" has it going to Mid Atlantic and dying due to...

as well as the unorthodox North Atlantic pattern

a Lower water temperature Anomaly (a description meaning "who the heck knows what to call it and why").

The upper air steering currents have the chatter worried about the next expected #99L The L means Low Pressure. Not on the map yet, but at a direct shot from there to Caribbean can be no faster than 10 days.
Thats is a Direct shot. and not likely. If was steered along the east coast try more like 16 days.

I will keep it short and sweet/sour as I update next, probably Thursday.
Jim...

 

[shemandr]

OK thanks. I'll look forward to it. I should be monitoring events off Africa by now, anyway (August 15th.)

 

[JamesG161]

Invest 98L is now Tropical Depression Six!
It is still on course to die in middle Atlantic.

Here is a current picture of the ocean Temperature "Anomaly".
Blues are BELOW normal and Reds are above normal.
TD6 is the RED L in bottom right.
Note the BLUE H's (high pressures) are the pushing force and there is a gap between two BLUE H's fronts that is steering TD6 to mid Atlantic.

One other reason I am showing this picture is to note the Blue low temperature anomaly just south of Louisiana and near Gulf Coast.
This is an unusual Gulf coastal water cooling.
Why?
When water evaporates, it cools.
All of the water DUMPED on Louisiana flooding came from the there!
Major major evaporation and then rain.
Stay tuned..
Jim...

 

[kloudie1]

Restocking my ethanol-free, Biobar treated generator gas as it becomes available.. We here in South Louisiana really don't need much more rain!

 

[JamesG161]

Restocking my ethanol-free, Biobar treated generator gas

Cough cough my house generator runs off my 500 gallon propane tank. I have room for refugees in my landlubber house which, BTW, is at 60' elevation.
Ya'll come over and we will weather a storm together and tell stories of high seas adventures.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Invest 98L = TS Fiona and Invest 99L not looking good.

TS Fiona is still weak and meeting with Drier Air. It still looks like a Mid Atlantic death. The "oppressive" heat on the New England States is a High Pressure "shield" that should push Fiona away.

Sour news...
Invest 99L is forecast almost Due West and is moving at a fast 15 mph. 99L is over cooler that average water now, means intensifying is slowed.

By Sunday we should see the Modeling Course "Steady on". Current track has it almost following 97L=TS Earl, which hit Belize with a lot of rain.

We are about 4 days from more reliable direction and USA strike potential.

Keep an weather eye on 99L.

Chatter...
The inside info predicts storms off Africa to be spinning out on a regular basis.
Jim...