Invest 97 Storm and Prediction

[JamesG161]

I am posting this forum, since I am an amateur Hurricane Forecaster. I began my study after my City of Waveland MS, was completely destroyed by Hurricane Katrina. The shock effect had most survivors scared each time a Storm formed in the following years.
My forecasts are days ahead of the News. So you can take this as you please, but I am batting +900 since 2006
After the standard Disclosure/Disclaimer...
Here is my forecast for Invest 97.

El Niño winds, drier from all the rain, and the Caribbean Islands are preventing it from being a Tropical storm. It is on track to skip across northern South America and into Mexico. The current High Pressure in the Gulf of Mexico (hot weather) is protecting the USA for now.
Gulf water is Warmer than last year by 2°F.
If the storm stalls in Gulf it will strengthen, but too early to call.
It is most likely not ever be more than gale winds and rain.

The other disturbance #96 will be El Niño destroyed or go into central Atlantic.

Keep you eyes on them and this stimulated my 2016 Hurricane preparation.

Not part of Sailing, but always a concern for boat preparations. Keep yourself and boat safe and prepared.
I will update this forecast if changed.
Jim...

 

[njlarry]

Thanks for the update Jim.
Please keep them coming.

 

[JamesG161]

Update on 97...

So far Storm #97 is doing as predicted in post#1 ! It is fast moving westwardly at 20 mph. Danger is when storms move slower, like 10 mph. Slow storms gain energy and circulation over warm water. High pressure cells in the Gulf of Mexico continue to shield the USA Gulf. 97 will die soon, without much more than heavy rain (good for de-energizing Gulf warm waters for the season)

Storm #96 was destroyed!!! Go El Niño Go!

Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

As #97 passes South of Jamaica. it will intensify and might get to Tropical Storm status before hitting Northern, Central America. The Hurricane Hunters are planning a "look see" today.

Still no threat to Gulf Coast USA.

Jim...

 

[woodster]

thanks jim for the heads up i for one am really interested in your reports

 

[zeehag]

as this is la nina, not el nino, some of your info is a lil off. we have been with the la nina current since beginning june. the current is visible from south america into pacific ocean. in may, the colder current was visible under the hot, dissipating el nino current,. the year for these is june to mid may. mid may on pacific coast is huricane season. yours doesnt start until beginning june.
the cold current looks stronger than usually seen with normal la nina current flow.
as we are with la nina, you will notice the cyclonic events in pacific are forming within a narrow band, with the cold current to the south , and cold water to north. with this narrow path, the storms go to hawaii.
atlantic side is with a slow start this year. this 97 L is headed to cozumel, with dissipation predicted by mid mexico.
check storm 2k for storm predictions and models. very interesting site. the anomaly graphic is from june this year-you can see some formations in pacific, and you can see the bold cold current in yellowish.

 

[zeehag]

current day graphic of sst and la nina current.
all models show earl going to mexico via cozumel

 

[JamesG161]

as this is la nina, not el nino, some of your info is a lil off.

I don't like to correct or argue.
But...
El Niño caused heavy moisture over USA, winter, spring and summer, and the El Niño air from the warmer Pacific is still happening.
The pumping action of the Pacific Ocean is cyclical and doesn't change quickly. We are entering La Niña and leaving El Niño. The Pacific moisture is still being dumped on USA. Witness the Maryland floodings.

Now if the Pacific Air , drops all the rain on USA, it leaves drier upper air to destroy the Hurricane formation. Witness the death of Invest 96.
So...
Refer to my disclaimer in my Post #1.
Jim...

PS: Dang it Earl barely made Tropical status this morning winds 45 mph but with a more defined center, it had slowed for 20 to 16 mph westward. Poor luck for Belize

 

[zeehag]

those who paid attention know we had 2 years of el nino from which we have this year emerged. 2015-2016 was super el nino. our LA NINA current is

strongfer than normal they are saying this is a super LA NINA we are now experiencing.
what i write is provable-- i am not arguing anything, but reporting that which is KNOWN of this cycle we are presently experiencing, which is LA NINA, FINALLY after two scorching el nino years.
see the OBVIOUS la nina cold current off south america. that is the current that spawns the cycles of la nina/el nino is a hot water current which was displaced this past may by this currently cold current.
please research el nino and la nina further as you are incorrect.
the el nino current is not an air flow but a hot water current which has thank gods dissipated completely, as per the graphic shown. the yellow squiggle coming off south america is la nina cold water current. self proclaimed and self studied weather is awesome as long as you pay attention and use actual meteorology gurus for educational purposes. i have been doing ¨weather¨ since 1956. i have studied el nino /la nina cycles specifically since 1973. i have had fun inside the strongest cane in epac in history. yeah i know my weather.
LA nina is COLD EL nino is hot. the pair cycle in MAY/JUNE, NOW is LA nina. until june 1 was el nino. thos ewho follow these cyclic events kno wthis. may is dissipation, june is beginning, not a calendar year, which is based in absolutely nothing.

 

[JamesG161]

Tropical storm to return to a Tropical Depression by late today after affecting Belize. Luckily Earl moved fast and and didn't change course. Barely enough sustained winds to get named.

Next 3 weeks...
Most tropical waves in East Atlantic Hurricane Nursery are forming too far south to be of any USA threat. High Pressure fronts still dominate Southern USA (damn hot weather). This is our shield for now. Watch the near Caribbean formation area. So far nothing. The good news still is Los Niños will disrupt low pressure formations by drier upper air.

Jim...

PS: My June forecast was 12 named storms (check you insurance policy ) 6 cat 1's . Low impact to USA. Take my post in this forum as you wish, but forecasting it just a hobby for me and has calmed my Katrina affected friends, since I am a few days ahead of the news and not afraid of being wrong (unlike our filtered weather forecasts).

 

[All U Get]

Nice discussion. Earlier this year I read that the Jet stream had crossed the equator. How would this play out in the storm development?

All U Get

 

[woodster]

I read that the Jet stream had crossed the equator.

either in quarantine or has to get passport stamped

 

[jssailem]

Could be an illegal wind.

 

[JamesG161]

I read that the Jet stream had crossed the equator.

I missed that, but it would be rare. Jet stream is caused by Earth's rotation. Northern Hemisphere spin causes Hurricanes to rotate counter clockwise and Jet stream to flow west to east. Southern Hemisphere does just the opposite.
psssttt the Jet Steam movements steer our Hurricane's path to a great degree.
So...
If that Way South flow is happening all year, good for USA.

Here is the current Jet Stream flow...
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
Note the kinda circle around Arizona. That is a reason for drought in those areas ( no Pacific moisture allowed to enter). The moisture from Los Niños is in the northern path, and why the heavy rains in Maryland et. al..

Triva test: Pull the cork in a full sink/tub of water quickly. Guess which way the "water funnel" turns as it drains?
Jim...


Ans: Northern Hemisphere (CCWise) Southern Hemi (CWise)

 

[zeehag]

los ninos i s plural for both male and female-- we are in la nina. los ninos is a generalization which is incorrect, as la nina and el nino are DIFFERENT. if you resided on pacific side, it would be easier to understand
generalizing the two is exhibitu=ion of lack of understanding th ephenomenA, which are diffrent , almost diametrically opposed.
take time to learn that which you are speaking, please.

 

[JamesG161]

LMAO... Whew....
Let me try one more time at the scientific CONCEPT and not the Spanish term.

Los Efectos de Humedad desde el Océano Pacífico. A mi, No es importante lo que yo llamo.

To ALL please change my El Niño, La Niña and Los Niño to Los Efectos

I speak Spanish well and this is my last post on this.
I can put what I like in the Sail Call Lounge forum and why I posted it here, besides religion and politics.
I am am learning...
Jim...

PS: this is not the WAR ROOM.

 

[JohnVTX]

los ninos i s plural for both male and female-- we are in la nina. los ninos is a generalization which is incorrect, as la nina and el nino are DIFFERENT. if you resided on pacific side, it would be easier to understand
generalizing the two is exhibitu=ion of lack of understanding th ephenomenA, which are diffrent , almost diametrically opposed.
take time to learn that which you are speaking, please.

Good Grief....