• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Josephine <--- TD Eleven <--- Invest 95L

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Time of year for more West African LOWs to spin off.
ts_al_tat_VSHD-2.gif

Tracking now.

storm_95-2.gif


TABD is best for next 2 days.

A quick look, at the steering winds, shows this disturbance to track south and run into formation resistance.

wg8sht-2.GIF

The Sahara Dust is still dampening the growth in intensity.:)

Jim...

PS: John and I are working on a boat preparation check list. Stay tuned.:cool:
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Depression Eleven will most likely get named Josephine.

Current model are in close agreement that TD 11 will become a "Fish Storm" by Saturday the 15th.:)

11L_gefs_latest.png


It is running into a lot of Wind Shear and Sahara Dust, that disrupts strengthening.
____
Until the African Monsoons move further North [replacing Sahara Dust], most of these type storms will remained weak.

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Storm Josephine just barely made it to get a name.

The Fish, in mid-Atlantic, will appreciate the extra Oxygen from the surface turbulence.
_____
Noteworthy is a series of Low's entering the Atlantic around NC and VA.
This is not normal for sure. They are more disturbing than this storm.

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Noteworthy is a series of Low's entering the Atlantic around NC and VA.
Behold this morning from NHC.
two_atl_5d0-6.png


This has been happening all Summer from this type event.

Derecho
[Day wretch Ohh]
Last year a series of HIGHs protected the East Coast and now the East Coast is generating them!:facepalm:
Jim...

PS: This a NON- Tropical disturbance.
 
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