• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

TS Cristobal <-- TD#3 <-- Invest 93L

Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
First day of Hurricane season 2020, Invest 93L is starting as a LOW over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

It will become a Tropical Storm this week, but is being slowed by a few HIGH's from the west.

Long term points at Texas coast now, Wednesday will be a better forecast.

Time to prepare check on boat preparations.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Looks like it is trying to from up over next few days.
Models are no good for now, but a new product Genesis [formation probability] says yes, by Wednesday.

03L_tracks_18z.png


HWFI is good for 36 hours normally.

Check your boats soon for lines needed...
Jim...
 
  • Helpful
Likes: ggrizzard
May 24, 2004
7,131
CC 30 South Florida
These are the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda which formed in the Pacific. It broke up over land and it did not get keep its name and it will be renamed Cristobal as it forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Afew of the models have it tracking back to land where it could dissipate.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Tropical Depression #3 is almost stationary as the HIGHs pass by in the next few days.

This is a good thing for now.

TD#3 is de-energizing the southern Gulf.:biggrin:

The Current HIGH over Colorado today is the barrier to movement.

5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif


Can you see it?

NOAA expects TD#3 to follow behind on Monday.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Headline stealing...
TS Cristobal is the 3rd earliest storm in history.:facepalm:

Run run run...:thumbsdown:
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,102
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Well is James ready to run or will he stay. Only time will tell.

One thing that looks pretty sure, it is time to open the closet and get out your oil duster, your rain slicker, that battered golf umbrella and patch up any holes. As James has indicated Cristobal is coming. And is wanting to rain on your parade.

Keep your eye on the storm. There is a lot of uncertainty about the timing-be it Saturday or Monday. The location is roughly Florida panhandle to Texas. And the type of storm be it a TS or a TD.

Stay in touch with your local forecast for the best info regarding your local conditions.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Well is James [Jim] ready to run or will he stay.
Who me? I ain't afraid of no stinkin, windy rainy day.;)
_______
TS Cristobal is doing a lot of flooding in Central America.
It will remain stalled until the HIGH pressure front, now over Mexico, moves Eastward and passes over Florida.

Movement starts slowly North on Friday.

But the models separate on Saturday, when it speeds across the Gulf of Mexico ≈10 mph.

What is causing the acceleration? [ a good thing]

A big LOW pressure over Canada now:facepalm:

In fact both major models, make a shift to the NNWest on Saturday.

03L_gefs_latest.png

This is typical for early season storms, when the sub-Tropical Jet Stream is NOT dominating.

TS Cristobal will trail along with the big Canadian LOW and not have big winds.
_____
The Gulf of Mexico is de-energizing from this storm.:clap:

Jim...

PS: I will adjust the mooring lines on my boat, to allow for a 1 foot higher surge. Those on the Eastside of the center should check their boats for the extra high waters and tides.:cool:
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,102
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
No Crystal Ball for Cristobal. It will be a day or more before a location for Cristobal to come on shore can be defined.

For now expectations are the storm will be heading into the area on the Texas/Louisiana border. There is nothing lost to checking your lines and preparation of your storm list of do’s and don’ts.

The current status for this event is a Tropical Storm. Our Hurricane Hunters are flying into the storm and will have information about winds as the storm moves across the gulf.

Cristobal is a good test of our preparation.

Be safe and listen to your local community guidance for the latest storm information in your area.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Gulf of Mexico is de-energizing from this storm.
This is last 7 day Change of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly [SSTA] [°C]

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_watl_1-2.png


What the heck is that?:rolleyes:

People always talk and worry about how hot the Oceans are. Hotter than last year etc.:frown:
This daily analysis compares the last 7 day average against the Average of a base time period 1981-2010 standard.

Thus it shows the Gulf of Mexico now versus past history.
_______
Can you see the cooling effects of the Stalled out TS Cristobal?

How about the Cold winter Water from the Mississippi River discharge?

Amazing how much Stored Solar energy is removed by evaporation and raining cycle over the large diameter of a storm.

A Cooler Gulf means less future storms intensity.
Jim...

PS: In 2021, the above standard will shift to 1991-2020 averages.:pimp:
 
  • Helpful
Likes: jon hansen
Oct 19, 2017
7,746
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
Headline stealing...
TS Cristobal is the 3rd earliest storm in history.:facepalm:

Run run run...:thumbsdown:
Jim...
"
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a fast start. The season began on June 1. Two named storms formed before the official start of the season in May.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is the season’s 3rd named storm. Forecast models move the storm north through the Gulf of Mexico to near the Gulf Coast this weekend." (2020 Atlantic hurricane season off to a record fast start)

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,074
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
We're moving a boat up North starting Friday. I think we're gonna get wet. I just need a few hundred dollar bills to tear up and I'll be sailin'.