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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Tropical Storm Sam --> Hurricane Sam

Feb 14, 2014
5,623
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We have been watching this tropical wave since it was Invest 98L.

TS Sam looked to be a "Fish Storm" like the last 4 Atlantic storms.

But the recent ECMWF model differs from GFS now.

This is an "Watch Alert" since TS Sam is forecast a Major Hurricane.
Jim...
 
Jan 19, 2010
9,951
Hunter 26 Charleston
Hmmmm so... landfall someplace between Mid-Florida and South Carolina...????

1632431185241.png
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,807
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
@rgranger
Too early to tell. At present the long range models suggest it curls East and does not make landfall.
1632434147199.png

The NOAA plot illustrating the storm,Tuesday the 28th has it somewhere SSE of Bermuda not entering the Caribbean..
1632434257503.png


It bears watching. Conditions can change.
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,623
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Sam appears to be following Hurricane Larry and the other Alphabet M thru R.

But it is stalling and building intensity.

This 72 hour forecast is why.
Note the series of HIGH's Protecting the East Coast.
Hurricane Sam will turn and follow one of the LOW troughs behind.
atlsfc72_latestBW.gif


The ITCZ is now bending as the African monsoon LOWs are dominating the Atlantic Birth zone.

The Caribbean has the HEAT and where Hurricane IDA was born.
Jim...
 
May 24, 2004
6,765
CC 30 South Florida
To early to worry. It has slowed down its forward motion so the scenario at the time of approach is not defined.
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,623
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Sam misses Bermuda and becomes an Atlantic Fish Storm as will a few more.

The Caribbean HEAT is still available and a potential starts on..
Tuesday Oct 5th...

Jim...
 
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