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Tropical Storm Arthur <-- Invest 90

Feb 14, 2014
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Invest is a term that triggers computer models to focus on a Tropical Disturbance or, INVESTigation mode.
The number 90 is assigned by monitoring sections of the World. That number starts at 90 for Atlantic and Caribbean Section and will increment for each storm in 2020.
Now on to the current storm, Invest 90.;)

It is raining in Southern Florida now and will develop into full blown LOW pressure system on Sat 16th, after passing over the Bahamas.
It will not develop beyond a small Tropical Storm named Arthur.

The best model, we track, has it going to North Atlantic by Tuesday 19th. [Note: We call this a "Fish Storm" not much impact on SBO boaters]


Another LOW pressure will form over the Central USA on Tuesday 19th and will pass on to the Eastern seaboard giving the impression it was part of Invest 90. :badbad:

So expect some crappy weather from that trailing LOW buy Wed-Thurs on the Mid Atlantic coastal areas.
Feb 14, 2014
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Of course it got a name.

TS Arthur

It appears to be giving North Carolina a Breezy Monday 18th, before heading away from Land.

News headlines strongly suggest early storms are an indication of big 2020 season.

Actually early storms are a good thing, in the sense of intensity.

Hurricanes are a Heat Engines, fueled by the Sun. Depleting the Heat by evaporation/rain cycle is a good thing.
That shows the Heat Potential on Arthur's path. Nothing to fire it up.

Sea Surface Temperatures [SST] are just that. Warm in the top ≈10 feet.

If you stir that SST up with wave action and mix with cold rain, the storm has to move or die.

Note: the only Heat Potential is the Caribbean, thus the area of the birth of TS Arthur.
Also note the African Atlantic now. Only along the Equator which is too far South for birthing there.

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Feb 14, 2014
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Arthur begins to go South!


This is really a good example of pressure front timing. [pressure fronts are atmospheric waves]
Fronts move West to East at different velocities. Those speeds vary as the season changes.
A second LOW pressure front, a bit further South today, will join TS Arthur in the next 2 days.
This is causing the curve.

No biggie because there is very little Heat to fuel the storm.
During the 2020 Hurricane season, we will discuss....

Timing is everything

In 2019, the USA was protected by HIGHs from the Pacific NW. Many storms, but few direct hits.
[ Dorian hit the Bahamas worst and 18 named Storms]