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Sailing is all about the Weather.
Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.
Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.
Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.
TD 18 --> TS Rafael --> Hurricane Rafael
- Thread starter kloudie1
- Start date
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,076
Let's not get ahead of the NHC.
Here is the present forecast status.
Yes there is a "Tropical Storm" in the Western Caribbean "#1" It looks like it could form into something, but it is early to be identifying it as anything more than AL97.
Here is the NHC 03NOV text:
I spoke with James and we agreed to take another look tomorrow. There are some models that has it running over Cuba getting into the gulf then dissipating over the next 5 days. The Gulf is cooler than it was only a couple of months ago.
Hang in there. November is the last month of the 2024 season. We don't need another storm.
Here is the present forecast status.
Yes there is a "Tropical Storm" in the Western Caribbean "#1" It looks like it could form into something, but it is early to be identifying it as anything more than AL97.
Here is the NHC 03NOV text:
1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system over the south-central
Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two as it moves generally
northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba.
It is on our radar, but needs to develop before chicken little comes out of the hen house. I spoke with James and we agreed to take another look tomorrow. There are some models that has it running over Cuba getting into the gulf then dissipating over the next 5 days. The Gulf is cooler than it was only a couple of months ago.
Hang in there. November is the last month of the 2024 season. We don't need another storm.
Strong W to E wind shear along northern Gulf Coast as well as cooler water temp in Gulf should limit intensification of this system to tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane, according to local forecasts. We shall see. Boat is still secure from previous threats, so nothing to do except keep an eye on storm’s expected point of landfall on Friday/Saturday.
Going out with a friend for a run along the coast starting Monday or Tuesday .. again depending on what we see in the models.. Going to be mostly a motorboating run heading east, apparently..
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,076
@kloudie1, the winds for Monday through Wednesday all look to be East to West. So it is likely a motor east and a trade winds spinnaker ride west. Keep an eye on the storm. GFS has it leaving the coast of Cuba on Wednesday and moving quickly across the Gulf. GFS has it as a compact Tropical Cyclone, while Euro models have it breaking up as it moves from the center of the Gulf towards the Gulf states.
Here is a screen shot I took from a modeling program this AM.
Here is a screen shot I took from a modeling program this AM.
Just goes to show us that hurricane season isn't over until it's over. Tks, Dammit Jim!
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,076
Looking this AM, Windy reports TS Rafael is forming in the warm waters of the western Caribbean. Prognosis still has it becoming a Class 1 Hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. Moving over the Western mountainous end of Cuba there will be disrupting efforts of the land mass.
We need to be vigilant and keep an eye on this even as the Season wraps up.
We need to be vigilant and keep an eye on this even as the Season wraps up.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,076
Andrew, You posted a good question. Since Rafael is slowly forming south of Cuba, the two High-Pressure cells to the east (Atlantic) and west (over Mexico) are expected to have more impact on the storm's direction once it moves north of Cuba. Based on today's development, I will be watching this.
It is also why the GFS and the Euro models are divergent.
The Key messages from NOAA are posted here.
It is also why the GFS and the Euro models are divergent.
The Key messages from NOAA are posted here.
jssailem
SBO Weather and Forecasting Forum Jim & John
- Oct 22, 2014
- 22,076
As of this morning, the GFS and the ECMWF weather models now agree that Rafael will turn west after running across Western Cuba and expend its energy in the central Gulf as it spins and dies towards the Central Mexican coast. It looks like the Gulf Coast states have been saved from another storm.
We will continue to monitor and verify the predictions as the storm progresses into the Gulf.
We will continue to monitor and verify the predictions as the storm progresses into the Gulf.