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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Sahara Dust

Feb 14, 2014
4,665
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
One part of the world I never wanted to visit...

The Sahara Desert

No worries, parts of the world's largest Desert will come to the Tropical Atlantic in a big way this week.

A major Sahara Dust storm will highlight Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean weather.
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Sun rise and sets will be colorful as the Dry Air, full of mineral dust, will dampen the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane season.

Windy as forecasted

A forecast animation

Saharan Air Layer Forecast - Caribbean | Hurricane and Tropical Storm coverage from MyFoxHurricane.com
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African Monsoons and Sahara Dry winds will a oscillate [North/South] during the Hurricane season.

When the Monsoon dominates we have the potential of a Hurricane birth off the West African Coast.

Jim...
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Jul 27, 2011
3,844
Bavaria 38E Alamitos Bay
Saharan dust eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico, including the eastern Gulf off central west Florida. The dust contains iron which is a limiting nutrient (e.g. trace element) in seawater for phytoplankton growth. Blue-green algae absorb the iron that one of its enzymes uses to fix atmospheric nitrogen; thus, producing abundant ammonium and ultimately nitrate. The resident dinoflagellates, which are photosynthetic, then have the nutrients required for explosive population growth—i.e., plankton bloom. There, the bloom manifests as toxic red tide, sometimes called a “Harmful Algal Bloom.” These things have been reported in the GOM since the time of the conquistadors. Long before synthetic fertilizers. Look for reports of intense red tide (HAB) off central west Florida beginning a few days after the “dust settles.”
 
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Likes: Rick D
Feb 17, 2006
4,849
Lancer 27PS MCB Camp Pendleton KF6BL
I heard the weather guys saying the Sahara Dust was keeping hurricanes down. Don't know how true, but interesting.
 
Feb 14, 2014
4,665
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Sahara Dust was keeping hurricanes down
Dry Air in upper atmosphere.
This dampens the Vertical upwards moisture and helps stop the intensity driving force.

Tropical Storms are Heat Engines.

No condensation in upper westward winds, no rain, storm intensity is way down for sure.

The Pacific Ocean is driven by La Niña and El Niño cycles.

Tropical Atlantic is driven by the African Monsoons and Sahara Dry winds.

Caribbean storms are driven by Heat and the Westward African winds colliding with South America.

Jim...

PS: On my Windy.com link above you can see the Sahara Winds colliding the Northern South America:biggrin:
 
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Likes: jssailem
Feb 14, 2014
4,665
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I am seeing a new area of LOW pressure cells spinning up off the Coast of Virginia.
As the drier upper air restricts the normal Tropics storms, there seems to be an in increase in what NOAA calls...

Non-Tropical Storms

Dolly
[4th storm this year] was an example. Did Dolly of 2020 worry anyone? [ not Dolly of 2008]

Jim...

PS: I prefer powdery dust to 120 mph winds.;)
 
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WayneH

.
Jan 22, 2008
746
Tartan 37 Pensacola Shipyard, FL
Here in Central Texas, I thought I was in 1985 Los Angeles. You couldn't see the hills for the dust. Actually, visibility was down to less than 5 miles. That's the distance from my place to the south shore of Canyon Lake which I couldn't see on Saturday. The sunsets are nice but I could do without the heat wave.
 
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