• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Resting between storms? No your not... TD Ten - - >. TS JERRY

Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Just when you think there is time to sit back, take a break and sip that beer before it gets warm...

Up pops a TD (Tropical Depression). This one is identified a TD Ten.

It is still a couple of days out, but if your Sailing out near the Leeward Islands you will want to keep an eye on this one as it develops.

Here is the message from NOAA.
Later. My beer is getting warm.

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Jan 1, 2006
7,039
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Well yeah I am. My location on my profile comes up in Greenport despite my editing it several times. I'm actually in Jensen Beach FL and have been in the center of the cone for Dorian and now maybe TD 10. Humberto too but that didn't happen here.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Jensen Beach FL
There is a fair bit of time before TD Ten will be a factor to you.
You missed Dorian (the most likely candidate). Humberto was swooshed away by the High Pressure systems and the presence of Imelda in the Gulf.

Will keep a watch on TD Ten and give you an update as she comes along.

Sit back and sip that "PainKiller".
 
May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
Meteorologists here in Florida are saying they will not bite on the models forecasting a turn to the Northeast until at least two days from now when the forecasts should be more honed in. We are getting very timely updates here in Florida as soon as the Hurricane Center in Miami issues their updates within minutes the information and analysis are broadcasted through the local media. We regularly get footage from the Hurricane Hunters stationed at Linder Regional in Lakeland, FL.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
TD Ten has been promoted to Tropical Storm (TS) JERRY.
 
Nov 6, 2006
9,884
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
Woof! so today we have a few to watch! Models for Jerry are looking good for the Gulf Coast.. Imelda was quite a surprise! Now Disturbances 1 and 2 bear watching..
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Here is your Wednesday 15:43PDST afternoon update on our friend Jerry.
Using the NOAA NowCOAST website we can see the latest path predictions. Note tha tthe path is narrow near the storm and widens as the days progress. The NOAA forecast is always best from 0 to 48 hours. The further into the future the less certain the models become.

Note they are forecasting Cat1 winds to appear on Thursday about 2PM AST.

As always we advise you listen to your local government weather notices and make your decisions based on what they tell you.

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Jerry.JPG
 
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