• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

PacificNW Weather forecast for November 2021.

Oct 22, 2014
20,992
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
We had a nice October sharing a variety of weather patterns that let us experience all of the types of weather we read about in other parts of the nation.

My friend Rufus, has been sharing weather observations since November 1994. He has always tried to look beyond the immediate and give farmers a longer look at the future.

November 2021 looks to be a more normal weather pattern for us up here in the PacificNW.
Enjoy Rufus's look at the crystal ball.

A normal November stormy pattern will continue for the PNW over the next several days. Rain & showers on tap for the weekend, with breezy conditions, at times. By Sunday, the air aloft will be the coldest of the season. Such an unstable atmosphere can set off thunderstorms, small hail and wind gusts. Stay alert, if outside this weekend.
There is the potential for a MAJOR WIND EVENT come late Monday, early Tue next week. A Low may form SW of OR and rapidly deepen before it crosses the 130W line (discussed in an earlier update). If this system does, indeed, develop, as a few solutions suggest, it could produce powerful WINDS, esp over western OR. Maybe exceeding the 50 mph of our last blast in the Willamette Valley. The precise track of big wind producing storms is key, as you know. Right now, models indicating this Low (some do not), track it as a tightly packed storm - center pressure of 976-982 mb - turning N inside the 130W line and coming onshore between northern CA (no big wind in OR, bad in northern CA) and Vancouver Island (big wind in OR and/or SW WA) overnight Mon Nov 8. Heed Nat’l Wx Service statements, should they be posted over the weekend. Moderate-to-heavy rain from northern CA to Vancouver Island. Patron, be prepared.​
A second wind producer, but not quite as powerful, is modeled for Wed morning, Nov 10. This one charts ‘landfall' over southern Vancouver Island. Definitely windy & quite WET into Wed night. Veteran’s Day (Thu) could bring on a short rain break before another long-stretch of rain moves into NW WA. Southwest WA, OR & ID may miss out on the rainy part, staying dry (foggy, in places) through the weekend of Nov 13,14.​
The week of Nov 15 still looks very wet, blustery early on, then turning drier & colder. Before more rain, wind & below-mountain-pass snow return the weekend before Thanksgiving.​
“A little oil of courtesy will save a lot of friction."
-Rufus​
 
Nov 21, 2007
631
Beneteau Oceanis 34 Kingston, WA
I’d say my hopes for Thanksgiving at South Pender Island have all but been blown away at this point. We’re looking for weather windows to get our boat to the pumpout.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,992
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Not sure where you are Dave, but best weather window in the Puget Sound looks to be Monday afternoon. Light winds and no rain is forecasted.

Saturday in PS you’ll experience winds 15-20 knots gusts to 30+ Rain break about 3 to sunset.
Sunday winds declining, break in the rain after noon. Overcast sky’s.
 
Nov 21, 2007
631
Beneteau Oceanis 34 Kingston, WA
Saturday in PS you’ll experience winds 15-20 knots gusts to 30+ Rain break about 3 to sunset.
Sunday winds declining, break in the rain after noon. Overcast sky’s.
On Saturday I’ll be painting, and watching the whitecaps marching north between Kingston and Everett.
 
  • Like
Likes: jssailem