NOAA forecasts

[Piotr]

are not very accurate. For those of you who read my other post (to reef or not to reef), you know that I decided not bring my Mac 25 Deep Blew 6 hours up Chesapeake last Saturday due to a small craft advisory. It turned out that the advisory should have been posted for mid to late afternoon (as per THECUSCOUS, was sailing along my planned route that day), and not the full day. Regardless, I decided to bring the boat up today (played hookey from work), due to a great forecast - 5-10 kts steady winds building up to 12 kts in the late afternoon, partly cloudy, 61 F. And the best of all, we would be on the run most of the day. That last one was the most accurate of the forecast. The waves started at 1.5 ft (not bad), but at 10 am wind was already at about 10 kts. Because we were sailing on the run, I was using my 130% genoa as a reacher. At about 11:30 the wind was at 12-14kts and the waves built up to 2-2.5 ft, so I dropped the genny and was sailing under a full main, when we got hit by a 22-25 kts sustained gust. I don't know about some of you claiming it's a great fun to sail in those conditions under a full sail - you must be nuts! Under the main alone the boat started heeling at about 45 degrees and I couldn't control the heel since we were on a broad reach! I quickly rounded the boat into the wind and 2.5 foot waves and we dropped the sail. (the attached picture is of the following seas just before the gust - you can clearly see white caps and a 2-foot wave chasing us). Luckily, I kept the motor running, so we had some steering left. At that I asked my wife to check the forecast, and was astounded that another advisory was posted due to possible 25 kts gusts. The wave forecast was also revised. The gust lasted about 10-15 minutes, after which I put up a reefed main and a 100% jib and had plenty of fun surfing down the waves. But, this was a lesson - do NOT trust the NOAA forecasts - always listen to the weather radio when underway...

 

[Kings Gambit]

But, this was a lesson - do NOT trust the NOAA forecasts - always listen to the weather radio when underway...

So, now what; a look out the kitchen window and a wetted finger in the air b/f departing? [BTW-the avatar is us in sustained 26-27 kt; gusts > 30 kt; and I'm glad we were reefed; all in the NOAA forecast.]

 

[StinkBug]

It's a forecast, which is a prediction not a promise.

 

[Piotr]

It's a forecast, which is a prediction not a promise.

True, and I'm OK with a few kts up or down, but it's a big jump from 5-10 kts with 1 ft waves to 14 kts gusting to 25 kts withj 2.5 ft waves - in a span of 2 hours!!

 

[Piotr]

So, now what; a look out the kitchen window and a wetted finger in the air b/f departing? [BTW-the avatar is us in sustained 26-27 kt; gusts > 30 kt; and I'm glad we were reefed; all in the NOAA forecast.]

At this point, I think it's as accurate as NOAA. Macgregor 25 is an ultralight boat, and even reefed sailing in 20kts is a chore. I would never go out in it knowing it could be gusting to 25 kts.

 

[Kermit]

I've decided that wind forecasting is the hardest part of meteorology. I use the forecasts as a guide only. I never trust them.

 

[Kings Gambit]

I've said repeatedly that if, in more than 25 yr of sailing, I had heeded too much the NOAA weather forecasts I would have had many fewer sailing days to my enjoyment! That's b/c NOAA's system of zonal forecasts is driven by the end points of the range of conditions. If conditions warrant an SCA in say, the northern end of the zone--the entire zone is forecast for the SCA, etc, which might influence you to stay in that day instead of venturing out into comparatively fine local conditions. Your best friend is your personal knowledge of the behavior of weather/wind conditions in your sailing area referenced to the NOAA forecasts. Practice! Practice! Practice!

 

[THECUSCUS]

I look at the NOAA site, the weather channel site, windmapper app, and my latest favorite...the sailflow app. Still nothing beats being able to see the conditions in person. Sometimes its a wasted trip to the slip. I agree with a previous poster, I would have many fewer good sailing days if I just looked at forecasts and didn't actually go out and see for myself.
The pic is from saturday afternoon out towards Turkey Point in 20-27knots. With the right amount of canvas (double reefed main) you can still have alot of fun

 

[njlarry]

Piotr, you made a good choice Sat. We motored from Rock Hall to Bohemia. Very rough up to Turkey Point. Never raised the sail as the deck was pitching and rolling so much under power alone was not safe on foredeck with just the Admiral on board. Thank God the Universal ran without a hiccup. Calmer but still cold and windy past Turkey Pt.
Never seen it that bad there. In hindsight, should have stayed put.
On the other hand, many a time small craft is issued and the waters are calm as can be.

 

[Kings Gambit]

Piotr, you made a good choice Sat. We motored from Rock Hall to Bohemia. Very rough up to Turkey Point. Never raised the sail as the deck was pitching and rolling so much under power alone was not safe on foredeck with just the Admiral on board. Thank God the Universal ran without a hiccup. Calmer but still cold and windy past Turkey Pt.
Never seen it that bad there. In hindsight, should have stayed put.
On the other hand, many a time small craft is issued and the waters are calm as can be.

A little sail up usually makes the boat travel more smoothly without as much pitching and rolling. I suppose if the wind is dead astern it might not help as much. However, I take it you need to go up forward to hank-on the jib?

 

[topcat0399]

At this point, I think it's as accurate as NOAA. Macgregor 25 is an ultralight boat, and even reefed sailing in 20kts is a chore. I would never go out in it knowing it could be gusting to 25 kts.

One mans "chore" is another mans "fun".

Glad everything worked out.

 

[Ward H]

I look at weatherbug and a grib file reader. Based on those reports I took the Admiral sailing on Friday and had much more wind than forecasted and from a direction with a long fetch which made for a rougher and wetter ride than the Admiral likes.
Almost canceled a sail with a buddy on Sat due to forecasts of > 20. We decided to take the ride to the boat anyway and found 5 to 10 when we got there and sustained winds of 12-15 after a couple of hours. Long gusts closer to 20 or higher kept us on our toes. West wind meant no big chop. One boat reported a gust of 23. It was the highest winds I had sailed in with reefed main and full jib. We had a blast.
It was the last sail of the season and one of the best. Glad I didn't listen to the forecast.

I watch three weather sites but trust none.

 

[Kings Gambit]

One thing you can usually depend on is forecast for large storms and passage of cold fronts. If NOAA is forecasting a major cold front coming down from Canada or Alaska; I think I'd take heed!!

 

[Justin_NSA]

Our members are blessed with our own weather station installed on a jetty and view-able from the web. We can see conditions before deciding to take the 45 min drive out to the boat. This also displays on the clubhouse monitor as well as a Wx radar image on a second monitor. We're spoiled. It's a great club

http://www.ninnescah.org/weather/wx.htm

 

[Piotr]

I look at the NOAA site, the weather channel site, windmapper app, and my latest favorite...the sailflow app. Still nothing beats being able to see the conditions in person. Sometimes its a wasted trip to the slip. I agree with a previous poster, I would have many fewer good sailing days if I just looked at forecasts and didn't actually go out and see for myself.
The pic is from saturday afternoon out towards Turkey Point in 20-27knots. With the right amount of canvas (double reefed main) you can still have alot of fun

that's what I did, but since I have only 1 reef, I had to improvise. Luckily, I was on a reach, so my makeshift second reef worked - somewhat...

 

[Piotr]

One mans "chore" is another mans "fun".

Glad everything worked out.

It's a chore if you have a 6-hour sail and Admiral gets antsy after 2 hours, but I digress... . We made it and celebrated in a marina bar with a couple of beers and a pulled pork sandwich...

 

[Piotr]

A little sail up usually makes the boat travel more smoothly without as much pitching and rolling. I suppose if the wind is dead astern it might not help as much. However, I take it you need to go up forward to hank-on the jib?

Yes, to all of the above. I only dropped the mainsail for a 1/2 hr during the gust, and it was not pleasant (I don't have a long shaft outboard). After I gradually hoisted the main back up (2 reefs and then 1) and added teh jib, it turned back into fun and surfing down waves.

 

[Piotr]

Piotr, you made a good choice Sat. We motored from Rock Hall to Bohemia. Very rough up to Turkey Point. Never raised the sail as the deck was pitching and rolling so much under power alone was not safe on foredeck with just the Admiral on board. Thank God the Universal ran without a hiccup. Calmer but still cold and windy past Turkey Pt.
Never seen it that bad there. In hindsight, should have stayed put.
On the other hand, many a time small craft is issued and the waters are calm as can be.

Thanks - last time I went out in SCA I've got yelled at on this forum, so I learned my lesson. It's one thing to go out for fun, another if you HAVE to get somewhere in time...

 

[Piotr]

I look at the NOAA site, the weather channel site, windmapper app, and my latest favorite...the sailflow app. Still nothing beats being able to see the conditions in person. Sometimes its a wasted trip to the slip. I agree with a previous poster, I would have many fewer good sailing days if I just looked at forecasts and didn't actually go out and see for myself.
The pic is from saturday afternoon out towards Turkey Point in 20-27knots. With the right amount of canvas (double reefed main) you can still have alot of fun

HA! you took PEARSON out! (just kidding, you told me you did on the other post).

 

[Piotr]

Piotr, you made a good choice Sat. We motored from Rock Hall to Bohemia. Very rough up to Turkey Point. Never raised the sail as the deck was pitching and rolling so much under power alone was not safe on foredeck with just the Admiral on board. Thank God the Universal ran without a hiccup. Calmer but still cold and windy past Turkey Pt.
Never seen it that bad there. In hindsight, should have stayed put.
On the other hand, many a time small craft is issued and the waters are calm as can be.

By the way, which marina are you staying in?