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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

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Invest 94L --> PTC #6 --> TS Fred

Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Investigation 94L is now showing enough counter clockwise circulation to be tagged...

Potential Tropical Cyclone #6

The PTC designation triggers Hurricane Hunters and NOAA flights to get better data than the Satellites.
recon_NOAA3-0106A-INVEST.png


This NOAA aircraft did drop a buoy, which showed surface 15 knots and Dry air mixing in to dampen the formation.

The News Cycle is the GFS model, but the most aggressive model is HWRF.

HWRF shows a mild storm, south of Miami on Friday the 13th.

All models should converge in next 2 days.

The paths show Dry Air mixing and shear to keep a defined eye from forming this week.

Florida should prepare now for soon to be named, TS Fred
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
15,824
CAL 35 Cruiser moored EVERETT WA
A Caribbean surprise on Friday 13.
Currently forecasted as a Storm, it becomes a Depression as it crosses the mountains of Hispaniola.

The 5 day forecast has "Six" reemerging as a Tropical Storm on the north side of Hispaniola and running up the West side of Florida. On the map. = Tropical Storm. = Tropical Depression

Keep an eye out as this could be a rain and wind event. We will know more by Friday.
1628605923510.png
 
  • Helpful
Likes: JamesG161
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
do you have the Gulf heat graphic
Yes.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl-4.gif


The most HEAT is courtesy of the Gulf Stream. The Red area in the Gulf, is where the Gulf Steam Loops back through the Florida Straights.

So far, the Tropical Atlantic is low on HEAT.

But...

This is really the best information on possible intensity growth...
h20_aQG3_latest_natl-3.gif


This is the Depth of the Stored Solar Energy [Heat] or 20°C Isotherm.

Caribbean Birthed storms will be nasty this year.:facepalm:

Jim...

PS: From University of Miami
 
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Looks like TS Fred got his butt kicked last night, after Hispaniola's mountains spread out the Central Core.

recon_AF307-0606A-FRED.png

No more HEAT fuel and the winds died down.:clap:

The tracking models now separate again.

Rain and gusty winds now appear to make TS Fred a coastal Flooding event.
______
My personal view [based on science] of the next 15 days in Tropical Atlantic.

Not much activity!

Why?

The Westerlies are weak and the Atlantic High still dominates.

Jim...

PS: See this for the Science
Atlantic Storm Activity Begins
 
  • Like
Likes: kloudie1
Feb 14, 2014
5,624
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Picking up energy again in the Gulf and track has shifted a little farther west.
The Hurricane Hunters are searching this morning.

Where is TD Fred?
It is barely circulating.
____
The LOW pressure, that stalled out over Florida, is the Reason.
IR Loop - Tropical Depression FRED

The two LOWs will combine in the Gulf to make more rains,

But...

They move fast to the Coastal Areas with gusty Winds and Rain on Monday.

The good news is Gulf Energy reduction.
Jim...
 
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