• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Norman-East Pacific

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I noted this tropical disturbance in the post on ...Pacific Crazy!...
Norman should track North of Hawaii by Tuesday the 4th.
______
Another potential one will spin up on September 7 from almost the same spot as Hurricane Norman.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Funny year. You have to follow the old adage “Go West young man!” to find your hurricanes gold.

Maybe that song was right. “the climate she is a changing “. Sorry Bob D for the poor pun.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Both Mel Fisher and the video above were looking for
Nuggets!
Lazy way of Gold recovery.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Nuggets are more exciting. I think they take the sand in the water tray and sift it again off the beach for dust.

You think the nuggets they found paid for the time he spent in the water 15ft below the surface?
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Here is a snip it from my buddy Rufus.
Tropical Topical: action beginning to pick-up west of Africa, as the Sahara Dust is shifting farther north, and more organized circulation in the thunderstorms moving off the African continent becomes apparent. The next system to be named is now over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and should garner the name FLORENCE before Labor Day weekend ends. FLORENCE may turn north and become a ‘fish storm’ early on, as it wanders into the central Atlantic region. The next pattern of circulation may track farther south, towards the Caribbean, but that is only our conjecture at this time. Not a high probability for circulation to get organized in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week or so, although the general pattern will stream muggy thunderstorm action into the Gulf states. Hope you like us to continue these virtual 'shoulder taps’ during your morning beverage with the latest Tropical Topical outlook.
Right now, it looks as though Sep will start out cooler than August, in general, with increasing chance for some precip as the month progresses. We sure need it. Enjoy the holiday weekend.
-Rufus​

Jim, you are the cutting edge of Hurricane weather forecasting.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Jim, you are the cutting edge of Hurricane weather forecasting.
I am just a bit braver than Rufus. One reason is, my friends are in the target zone, including Me!!!
I hope to bring awareness and not panic.

The truth be told, NOAA and the rest of the scientific forecasting world knows too. They just keep quiet and only just this year started using "points of interest". So NOAA is 5 days out.

Data sources are growing faster and faster and model are improving.

But still the best data is obtained when the Hurricane Hunters fly into the storm.:clap:

So when they fly...
You know it is very serious and land impact imminent!
Jim...

PS: I do my weather look every morning over coffee. It takes only 2 cups. It is best to see daylight in the part of the globe of interest.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
So sitting here in the am before the Grandkids wake, and the coffee is still hot, I looked at Norman, Olivia and Florence. Like you have said, likely not to do anything grave to the residents... not like last year. Cooling Sun?
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Cooling Sun?
Well not so much Cooling, as LESS violence.
We are getting lower Violent Eruptions and thus less extra Solar Radiation Blasts.
Since our Oceans warm based on Solar Radiation, we are seeing major delays in El Niño starting this year.
This year's El Niño will affect Atlantic 2019 season.
_____
It is the Tropical Wave forming AFTER Florence that gives me a bit of worry.
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Tropical wave leading indicator to an extended later than normal Hurricane season?