• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

First Disturbance of the 2020 Atlantic Season

Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I was researching what to expect for the 2020 Hurricane Season this morning and a big

Whoops...

Appeared North of the Bahamas.

June 1 is the official start.

The first tracking takes away from USA, but will probably be named Arthur.

The only mask needed, if sailing in that area, is perhaps a Scuba Dive Mask.:facepalm:

We will be discussing 2020 season soon.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Everyone loves pictures..
two_atl_5d0-4.png

Looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly [SSTA], there is not much Heat out there.
cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

Noteworthy is the cold water discharging from the Mississippi River , cooling the Gulf of Mexico.
Plus all coastal areas showing same cooling effects.
Jim...
 
Sep 22, 2018
1,869
Hunter 216 Kingston
Everyone loves pictures..
View attachment 179037

Looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures Anomaly [SSTA], there is not much Heat out there.
View attachment 179038

Noteworthy is the cold water discharging from the Mississippi River , cooling the Gulf of Mexico.
Plus all coastal areas showing same cooling effects.
Jim...
Curious about how much colder the Mississippi is than recent average??

Do you think the drop in temp in the river is related to less industry this year??
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Do you think the drop in temp in the river is related to less industry this year??
No.
It relates to how much snow, sleet and cold winter rains from all of the tributaries feeding the Big Muddy.
As the snow melts it puts continued cold water into the River.

The River level was high again, near New Orleans, and the Army Corps is diverting some cold water to avoid flooding.
Bonnet Carré Spillway - Wikipedia

That water flows by @kloudie1 and @BigEasy and others to dump in the
Mississippi Sound - Wikipedia
Near many of us from me to beyond Mobile AL.

So those Gulf Water Temperatures are about 5°F cooler now.

Waters drain differently along the USA East coast which also reflect the Snows et.al they got.
Jim...
 
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Sep 22, 2018
1,869
Hunter 216 Kingston
Yes a huge basin that is often thought of as a “southern” USA river by Canucks in Alberta and Saskatchewan ;)

60FB9D3E-A988-4256-9B81-92E33066FFDF.jpeg


I understand now that the cooler outflow is more seasonal than some abnormal event.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Also USA got Area pretty cheap from the French at about 5¢/ acre.

Which was caused by an abnormal event, called War in 1803!
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Topical disturbance update...

Two HIGHs will cause it too stall until about...

Saturday the 16th.

It will then skim off the USA east coast until causing a strong West winds from Jersey to Maine. Tuesday +
Jim...
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Feb 14, 2014
7,418
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Although John and I are not through with our sailboat oriented review of this tropical season, what we see so far is not much Heat stored in the Atlantic.

early start to the season for cruisers stuck in the Caribbean
But...

The Caribbean is still very warm.

Any disturbance there is always worrisome.

Timing of HIGHs determine direction and strength of Storms.
Jim...
 
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Likes: jon hansen
Oct 22, 2014
21,084
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Right you are Benny

I am guessing nice weather this week. Maybe even some nice 12 knot sailing days.