• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Approaching decision time ...

Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Currents in the inlets are important to understand.
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With Max Flood or Ebb running less than 3 knots to Access Atlantic City and boat speed under power at about 5 knots, there should be adequate power available to maintain boat control during peak periods center of channel.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Barnegat Inlet has a bit more current but still manageable
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Jan 1, 2006
7,039
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I hope I'm not stating the obvious to you. I grew up running Shinnicock Inlet on LI and not always without problems. The problem with inlets, especially this time of year, is that they may appear calm but can change quickly. The problem will not be chop from the afternoon wind. The problem can be long swells from far away storms such as Erin. You could be out on the ocean and not even notice the swells. But if you have a reference point you may notice that you are rising and falling 4, 6, 8 feet. When those swells hit shallow water, particularly the shoals that tend to accumulate around an inlet, they heap up and can become dangerous breaking waves. And if the current is outgoing it becomes much worse.
So, when you arrive at the inlet hang around and monitor the seas for 15 to 30 minutes. Try to always transit the inlet with incoming current - it is a huge difference. Returning is more difficult because arriving at the inlet means arriving at the shoals which could be as far out as the sea buoy. It is difficult to see the wave behavior so I would stick to the incoming current rule.
Incoming current!!
And you are correct: It isn't the tide- it's the current. Big difference with large estuaries. Eldridge has a few pages on the phenomenon. You can get current predictions here but you have to take them with large grains of salt:
NOAA Current Predictions - Current Predictions
And this which I just re-read. A bit alarmist but some themes ring true and match my experiences:
 

Ward H

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Nov 7, 2011
3,645
Catalina 30 Mk II Barnegat, NJ
Very interesting thread and timing is good. I've known about windy.com but just haven't used it. It's about time I do.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Ward, this is a software Charting program called Coastal Explorer. It uses NOAA data for it’s calculations. It is a PC based software. Charts are free. Fully integrated with the rest of my hardware (depth, AIS, etc.) SeatalkNG through WiFi.
 
May 23, 2016
217
O'Day 1984 23 Island Park, NY
Thoughts from Jones Inlet... When the surfers are out... Turn around...
Really though... Avoid transiting when the wind is against the current
 
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HMT2

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Mar 20, 2014
899
Hunter 31 828 Shoreacres, TX
Good luck Scott! Hope you have a safe and awesome weekend! Let us know how it goes.
 

Ward H

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Nov 7, 2011
3,645
Catalina 30 Mk II Barnegat, NJ
Ward, this is a software Charting program called Coastal Explorer. It uses NOAA data for it’s calculations. It is a PC based software. Charts are free. Fully integrated with the rest of my hardware (depth, AIS, etc.) SeatalkNG through WiFi.
Nice system. I didn't realize CE did so much. I remember now that you use it for all your planning. Nice.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
CE did so much.
Yes. It is what makes the decision to spend another $700 plus on an Axiom a difficult decision for me. Especially when I have another sail on my menu list of desires.
 

Ward H

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Nov 7, 2011
3,645
Catalina 30 Mk II Barnegat, NJ
I understand that!
Off topic: Close hauled in 20 knot AWS using EV-100 sailing to 50 deg AWA. Helm balanced and holding within 3 degrees rudder movement.
 
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Oct 26, 2008
6,041
Catalina 320 Barnegat, NJ
Well, the trip was a great success! Saturday, as predicted the wind was NE. The general consensus around here is that Windy and NOAA just about always under-predict the wind speed and I found that to be true on Saturday and Sunday. Predicted wind was in the 12-16 knot range. It was generally 16 to 20 knots. I wasn't as prepared as I might have been to leave so my entry to Barnegat Inlet was about an hour late at 10:00 am. This was fine as the flood current had a chance to slacken a bit. 15 minutes later I was thru the inlet, let out the genoa and motor off!

I was on my way! Rather than the predicted 1-2' waves, they were more like 4' to 6' and came on fast! I'd say they were maybe 6 seconds apart. I swear, the wave lengths were maybe less than twice my boat length!. We were rocking and rolling for sure, but the boat stayed dry! It took me a little bit of time to loosen my clutch from the wheel and move about in the cockpit with autopilot on. I didn't leave the cockpit the entire trip. I had my pfd on and I had a harness line that I secured to a cam cleat on the coach roof. I don't have a way to secure it to me. If I felt uncomfortable about not being harnessed, I had a plan to secure it to my belt. But, I never felt unsecure in the cockpit.

My destination was dead downwind, but I needed to reach to feel comfortable. I headed offshore for almost 2 hours and was about 6 miles offshore when I made my first gybe. I sailed 38 NM in 4 legs to Absecon Inlet. I had a reef in the mainsail as I motored out the inlet. I left the reef in for the entire trip. I let the 150 genoa completely rolled out. I reached back in to the 3-mile limit and then reached out again before turning towards Absecon Inlet.

It was a fast trip! Obviously with the current running with me, SOG averaged 6.5 knots! During the second reach, I averaged 6.9 knots SOG over the 10 NM leg. I made Absecon Inlet 5:45 hrs after leaving Barnegat Inlet. Half hour later, I was anchored in an anchorage in Brigantine, just off the inlet passageway.

I didn't want to waste Sunday and leave my return to Monday. The weather prediction called for northeast wind in the morning, moving to east later in the day. But it was supposed to be lighter. After reading Active Captain reports about shoaling in the ICW (noticing that the comments are about 3 years old) and looking at the winding passage on the charts, I was turned off and thought it would be just too tedious. I thought, how bad can it be on the ocean? I'll just motor into it. I thought it calmed down overnight. So I got up and left at about 8:00 am. It's 2 miles out thru the inlet and to the markers that indicate the shoaling areas that you need to pass. Waves on the adjoining beach were impressive and I was rolling significantly heading out the inlet with waves on my port beam. I was dry, though so I persevered beyond the markers and turned a bit north of east to make my way up the coast line. It took very little time to change my mind and head back to the inlet! It took me 45 minutes to get outside the inlet, I was heading out mostly east with waves on my port side for only 5 minutes when I realized I was going nowhere fast.

I thought, ok let's try running parallel to the coast (NE), which put me with waves on the starboard side. I had to point enough into the waves to keep from rolling, but not directly into the waves to avoid slamming hard into the troughs. It took me only about 10 minutes on that side while all I could think about was the fuel going bad by being stirred up. After a few hull slams, I started thinking about how well do I know the keel bolts? The fuel problem didn't bother me too much because I figured I could easily sail back to the anchorage, but the thought about the keel bolts gave me the willies. I turned around after what seemed to be at least an hour after turning outside the inlet but was actually only 15 minutes! 15 minutes later I was safely back inside the inlet where it was just moderately better.

@jssailem , so John, I got my practice in Absecon Inlet:dancing:

But this turned out to be a blessing in disguise! I dejectedly headed for the ICW, figuring I may as well get started and see how tedious it would be! As it turned out, I loved it! It's not nearly as winding as the charts deceptively show it. The distances are very under-represented, I think. Not only that, the area is beautiful beyond my imagination. It is a bit strange, because the high rises in Atlantic City loom over your shoulder for a long time. Yet it appears as if AC is on an island that doesn't affect the bays and estuaries around it. Besides, with your back to the city, there is a huge expanse of natural marshes, sedge islands and even many stretches of unspoiled wooded shoreline. It wasn't hard to realize that there is a lot of unspoiled nature between Brigantine and Tuckerton! Besides, I had the current with me almost all the way from Absecon Inlet to Little Egg Inlet. The area around this inlet is equally unspoiled and beautiful, transitioning to beach side sand dunes. There were hundreds of sport-fishing boats scattered everywhere and the beaches were filled with people for the holiday. It was actually a very pleasant environment.

I was moving with the current at 7 knots SOG for much of the trip with the engine just purring along at about 2700 rpm. I finished the entire trip past Long Beach Island and entered Barnegat Bay by mid-afternoon, completely refreshed by the pleasant weather and stimulating trip on the ICW. I had time to roll out the genoa and sail in Barnegat Bay to pass some time.

And what about the reported shoaling? Well, they must have fixed all those spots because I found no trouble and rarely found water less than 12' in all of the areas that were supposedly troubled. I was surprised to find depths of up to 40' in Little Egg Inlet! It was a trip that I'll be happy to make again!
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Congratulations Scott. Happy it was a challenge accomplished. And that you had exposure to decisions that gave you practice.

Glad the weather cooperated.
 

Ward H

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Nov 7, 2011
3,645
Catalina 30 Mk II Barnegat, NJ
When your ready to go it again, let me know. We can buddy boat.
 
Oct 26, 2008
6,041
Catalina 320 Barnegat, NJ
When your ready to go it again, let me know. We can buddy boat.
For sure! I think we have time in September to do this again. When I said that the distances in the ICW are under-represented by looking at the chart, I meant that the channel isn't nearly as winding as the charts would make it seem. The distances between markers are longer than I anticipated. I thought I would be hand steering the entire time, crouching under the bimini to see ahead without a break. As I found out, there are long stretches between markers where I simply set the autopilot and relaxed from a perch in the companionway where I could easily see ahead. I could make course changes and corrections with remote and I didn't need to spend a lot of time hand steering. It was very relaxed traveling almost the entire way. In the channel along Long Beach Island, the activity was entertaining. I enjoyed the entire trip immensely.
 
Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Sounds like the cruise bug has got its teeth into you.