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  • Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Feb 14, 2014
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is the NOAA's Forecast which is still increased activity, but expected lower than 2020.

Their Names

Ana was so early, that NOAA is considering changing Season Start to MAY 15 versus JUNE 1.

Main reasons for their STATISTICAL modeling for this Prediction.
1) Neutral ENSO [La Niña/El Niño] to weak La Niña [Rain and Westerlies]
2) Strong African Monsoon season. [Source of the Atlantic Storms]
3) Weaker Trade Winds [Slower Trek across the Atlantic]
4) Higher than normal Sea Surface Temperatures [SST] in Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Their comparison is against a Standard Average of the Period 1981-2010 which will soon shift to this new comparison 1991-2020.

So when NOAA says "Normal or Average" this is their standard reference, and not last year.

This year more information and statistical modeling are being incorporated into this forecast.
We will post more information 2021 Season forecasts, by other sources, soon.

Preparations should start now...
Jim and John
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