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  1. JamesG161

    Tropical Storm Sam

    We have been watching this tropical wave since it was Invest 98L. TS Sam looked to be a "Fish Storm" like the last 4 Atlantic storms. But the recent ECMWF model differs from GFS now. This is an "Watch Alert" since TS Sam is forecast a Major Hurricane. Jim...
  2. JamesG161

    Invest 94L --> TS Nicholas --> Hurricane Nicholas

    This Tropical Waves appears to be what I call a ... Coast Line Skimmer The Center of Storm stays in the Water for refueling, evaporates Gulf of Mexico water, then dumps rain on land. The Big models are in close agreement on tracking. The Yucatan is getting a lot of rain now. The TABM...
  3. JamesG161

    Invest 99L --> TD 9 --> TS Ida --> Hurricane Ida

    Investigation 99L is a Tropical wave birthed in the Caribbean. The Tropical Waves off Africa have been weak from low HEAT fuel. The Caribbean has plenty of HEAT! The Tracking models are still weak, but if it enters the Gulf of Mexico, land impact looks possible. Saturday the 28th, models...
  4. JamesG161

    TS Henri --> Hurricane Henri

    TS Henri [On Ree] This storm looked like an Atlantic "Fish Storm" until this morning. The storm may graze the USA on the weekend, and most likely at Hurricane strength. More to come as TS Henri begins to turn. Prepare now... Jim...
  5. JamesG161

    TS Grace

    TS Grace is much more defined than TS Fred. The Storm is following in about the same track. TS Grace will be a bigger threat to land and sailing. Hispaniola will again help out the Bahamas and Florida If the long ranges models are correct, it will loop over to South Carolina. Jim...
  6. JamesG161

    Invest 94L --> PTC #6 --> TS Fred

    Investigation 94L is now showing enough counter clockwise circulation to be tagged... Potential Tropical Cyclone #6 The PTC designation triggers Hurricane Hunters and NOAA flights to get better data than the Satellites. This NOAA aircraft did drop a buoy, which showed surface 15 knots and...
  7. JamesG161

    Atlantic Storm Activity Begins

    The Hurricane Season is warming up. The main reason is the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream is barely forming and is very late this year. Another conceptual view... And what defines the Hurricane Season... The shear disrupts the feeding of a storm from Stored Solar Energy or Heat. We are getting...
  8. JamesG161

    To Drill or Not to Drill?

    We had damage to our boat from Hurricane Zeta. The worst structural damage, breached the hull exactly on the Anchor Closet Upper Drain Line. After discussions with Joe Kerr from "1-One service" available thru SBO, and others, I decided to repair that spot focused on the... Structure versus...
  9. JamesG161

    Invest 97L ---> TS Elsa

    Tracking models are on the map now, but differ. ____________________________ For Reference... GFS = NOAA or Government which Focuses on USA et.al. It is assigned a Slot in World Wide Weather that slot is "L" for Atlantic Side Thus Invest 97L ECMWF = European Models, but has grown as a...
  10. JamesG161

    Invest 92L + PTC-3 --> TS Claudette

    INVESTigation 92L has been on the Modeling Radar, so to speak, for many days. There is a elongated LOW pressure with the Tropical storm characteristics in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. I am sure your Weather apps and Facebook Alarms have all Alerted most. Invest 92L is struggling from HIGHs off...
  11. JamesG161

    More 2021 Forecasts

    Colorado State University has been Forecasting Hurricane Seasons for many years. They are more bold in their Statistical Modeling reporting. Here is some of excerpts from their report. They just revised it and it is a bit less. Probability of a hit near you. A very sensitive input...
  12. JamesG161

    2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    This is the NOAA's Forecast which is still increased activity, but expected lower than 2020. Their Names Ana was so early, that NOAA is considering changing Season Start to MAY 15 versus JUNE 1. Main reasons for their STATISTICAL modeling for this Prediction. 1) Neutral ENSO [La Niña/El...
  13. JamesG161

    Cutting my Rub Rail

    When our Boat was Lifted of shore from... Repairing boat after Hurricane Zeta Sea Tow had a awkward position to properly lift the boat and caused this damage. 1) Any thoughts or reasons not to cut the Rub Rail at the Green Line and roll the Rub Rail out the way, for that minor hull fix? If...
  14. JamesG161

    Military Sail Boat?

    We saw this boat pulled up to the Restaurant Pier at our Marina. Jim...
  15. JamesG161

    Happy Thanksgiving to All

    For all our friends in SBO and more... _______ I’m thankful to live in the greatest country in the world, the land of the free and the home of the brave. And grateful for our men and women in uniform, as well as their families, who make great sacrifices to protect our freedoms. I’m also...
  16. JamesG161

    Hurricane Iota <--- TS Iota <--- Invest 31L <---OMG

    Hopefully the last of the season, but it will probably become TD IOTA. They say is it pronounced "EEE OH TAH". But my mother, who was always right, said it "Eye OH TAH". We will see who wins... My Mother versus New Cycle.;) Lets hope it does not follow Hurricane ETA. Jim...
  17. JamesG161

    Repairing boat after Hurricane Zeta

    My boat floated ashore after a 14 foot surge snapped 2 Hurricane lines and un-spooled 2 others from their bollard tie off. My boat is fully insured, by Progressive, and their contact from claim was within 4 hours from the adjuster. After a few questions, they eliminated collision, was I on...
  18. JamesG161

    Hurricane Eta... Cat 4

    Yes folks, even though November 1 ends December 1st the official end 2020 Hurricane season, it aint over yet! The HEAT in the Caribbean is still big. And guess what happens to Hurricane Eta? Look out Florida!! GFS tracking shows Cuba and South Florida on Nov 8th then heading into the...
  19. JamesG161

    Greek Alphabet Crazy 2020

    I just did a 16 day GFS forecast on Tropicaltidbits.com to check on the weather for my boats Lift out, off land. This is no Joke!!! It is showing that the HOT Caribbean will spawn more storms this 2020 Hurricane season. Reaching KAPPA... Eta is now on map, Theta to form on November 7th...
  20. JamesG161

    Hurricane Zeta <--- TS Zeta <--- Invest 95L

    In a year of amazing activity, we have a new disturbance forming in the only spot left, with any significant stored Solar Heat, Invest 95L finds it. Talk about tracking at this time is ludicrous but here it is.. TABM/TABD good for 2 days or about a north course. Where is BEEF aka HEAT...