2022 PacificNW Weather Update

[jssailem]

After all the doom and gloom, it is nice to share a bright dry future. Maybe.

Take advantage when you can. Winter sailing can be fun.
JS

Friday January 14

Refill your Mug and read on for the latest weather outlook. Hint: not much of a change from our last sip.​

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Overall, a dry pattern will prevail under a ridge of High pressure along the west coast. There will be a few exceptions, so we’ll address those.​

This weekend will be dry, except for showers will be over Vancouver Is & far NW WA Sunday, Mon and early Tue. Morning fog in many locations west of the Cascades. Hopefully, on Wed Jan 19 an offshore breeze will help push fog away, and provide a couple of sunny mornings to end the week.​

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The weekend of Jan 22,23 may present a weak trough just off the OR coast, so clouds could increase, but no precipitation is expected, other than coastal drizzle.​

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Dry conditions are charting for Mon - Wed Jan 24-26. Patrons in the Puget Sound region could get some showers on Thu the 27th, as a weak surface disturbance swings by. That front will also usher in some of the coolest temps since our last winter blast (but NOT super cold, just the lowest in a few weeks). You probably guessed it - the east winds will pick up, too, as High pressure will drop into the eastern basins. Portions of California may experience strong easterly winds the weekend of Jan 28,29.​

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February? Well, early in the month we may begin to enter another cold, wintery pattern, or a least a return to wet Pacific storms, depending on the center position of the Pacific High pressure ridge. ​

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-Rufus​

 

[nightowle]

Thanks for posting this.

 

[jssailem]

Ok you PacificNW sailors.. Winter is still here, but the weather may allow you to break some ice and venture beyond the marina in the Sound. Perhaps an afternoon sail, or practice with your radar.

I'm headed to Florida for the first half of February. I hear they will be having mid 30's to low 50's temperatures.
Just ideal for my planned activities.... not.

Here is the word from Friday's Rufus Forecast for the PacificNW.

Friday January 28​

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Overall, weather for the next couple of weeks will be ’steady’. Read on for clarification.​

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The NE winds have helped clear the air of fog for many locations the past 48 hrs - yielding pleasant late January afternoons in the PNW. By Saturday night the wind will let up as a weak cold front moves in from the NW. Vancouver Is. & western WA will be first to get some precip (snow in the mountains, rain at sea level), followed by OR from Eugene north by Monday morning. The air behind the system will be colder, so snow showers could drop to 1,000 ft. There will not be much moisture carried in, so total amounts will be nominal, esp for NW OR. Overnight lows should again drop below freezing Tue & Wed morning, if the east wind subsides in your location. Windy for southern OR, northern CA.​

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A strong Fraser Gap outlow has been erased by the models, although winds may pick-up a bit by Tue evening. Why? The high pressure ‘Yukon Dome’ is, indeed, following its normal path east of the Rockies, hence the lack of cold ‘outflow’ conditions in this forecast.​

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As next week nears an end, we could get a return to stillness & foggy bottoms, esp western OR. Drab. The weekend of Feb 5,6 is now trending DRY and foggy at times; cold in the far eastern portions of the PNW. A light touch of precip may arrive for southern BC and the far NW corner of WA by Tue Feb 8, with the next decent shot of rainfall due in around Thu Feb 10. This system will focus primarily on western WA; showers for NW OR. Some precip could linger on a daily basis over the Puget Sound through the end of that week.​

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Trending dry & drab again for the week of Feb 14. Yes, all of this is quite a change from previous expectations. So it goes. Weather will be steady and rather bland. California is charting dry but breezy at times, throughout the entire forecast period. Bee keepers will be prepping for the 2022 almond pollination period coming up soon.​

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“If you always do what interests you, at least one person is pleased.” -Katharine Hepburn’s mother​

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-Rufus​

 

[jssailem]

Checking in after our first day at the Magic Kingdom in Florida. It is variable weather here. Photo bombed


and a Magic experience


Here is the weather forecast for the PacificNW provided by Rufus.


Friday February 4

A half-cup update today because there isn’t much change in the outlook for the next couple of weeks.

Some precip today across the Puget Sound and northern Cascades, with a few showers possible in western OR. The next time we get a chance for showers will be late Sunday or early Monday Feb 6,7 — even then, the precip may be mainly north of Everett.

High pressure will continue to block wet Pacific storms, and a ‘continental’ ridge will drop in east of the mountains sometime next weekend, so expect the areas of fog to be cleared with afternoon sunshine. Columbia Gorge wind, from the east, will be notable, as well (Feb 12,13).

Colder temps and a decent rain, with mountain snow, is charting for roughly Wed & Thu Feb 16,17. Valentine’s Day could usher in a few showers in western OR, but that is iffy.

Overall: a rather bland, DRY pattern on tap for the next 12 days.

“Middle age is the awkward period when Father Time starts catching up with Mother Nature."

-Rufus

 

[Hello Below]

Overall: a rather bland, DRY pattern on tap for the next 12 days.

No appreciable rain for 12 whole days in February. Does that not constitute a draught for the PNW?

 

[jssailem]

Or as I like to think,
A few days of sailing without foulies!

 

[jssailem]

We knew it was coming. The little rodent said. 6 more weeks of winter.

The forecast says, Mother nature is not finished testing your heaters. So bundle up your kids, break out the hot chocolate and soup. We are in for a chill end to the February month of loving. I smell snow in the air.


Friday February 18

Ok, what’s that tag line all about? Get your Mug refilled.

Yes, after an extended period with very little precip and mild Feb temperatures, our weather will return to a winter pattern for a few weeks. The weekend will start out dry, then a cold front will drop in from the NW. Rain & showers will spread across the PNW by Sunday, with the freezing level dropping each day. By Tue, the coldest air will be in place, so don’t be surprised to see rain/snow mixed at the surface overnight Tue, as well as a dusting of snow, esp south of Salem and the higher foothills (500 ft+), as cold air filters in from the Columbia Gorge as the moisture source exits to the south.

A High pressure ‘Dome’ over NE Alaska & the Yukon will deepen to around 1044 mb by Tue night and shift into position to start up an offshore flow of cold air. The Fraser Gap Outflow will kick-in sometime late Tue (and, to a lesser degree, the Columbia Gorge by Wed/Thu). Temperatures west side of the Cascades are likely to drop into the low 20s on Wed morning, and repeat in the mid-20s the next couple of mornings. It will be crisp in the afternoons, as well.

It will warm up again (upper 40s to low 50s) the last weekend of February, but it will be WET and breezy. A series of moist Pacific systems are charting to arrive in succession starting Saturday evening (north-to-south). There will be breaks in the precipitation, but all-in-all, a wet pattern for several days. (Total precipitation from roughly Feb 27 to March 6should be just over 2” in NW WA to 1.5” in the Willamette Valley.). Also, the air mass will be on the cold side, so plenty of mountain snow in that period and, quite possibly, as few snow flakes mixed in at the surface, at times, early March. Any thoughts of pre-planting ‘working the ground’ will have to be put on hold. Jokingly, a new atmospheric refrigerator will arrive, door open - - potentially, the coldest cycle since December.

“If you kicked the one who causes you most of your troubles, you would not be able to sit down for six weeks."

-Rufus

 

[mermike]

Perfect. I'm sailing to PT and hauling out on February 28.

 

[jssailem]

Spring weather outlook. March 21. Spring begins. What is coming in the form of weather this spring start.

Friday March 18

The Spring Equinox is Sunday. We’ll also be in for a favorable change in the weather pattern just in time for Oregon Spring Break week. Morn’n beverage refilled?

A cold, wet pattern will be the story for this weekend, as a new season begins. Rain will start later tonight (Fri) in the north then spread across the PNW by Sat. Snow levels will drop below the passes by Sunday; travelers be aware if heading over the mountains.

Spring Break week has taken a positive change - as temperatures now look to jump into the 60s in many west side locations by Tue or Wed; teasing the low 70s in southern OR. In fact, other than a few late-day showers over the far north corner of WA and/or Vancouver Is. on Monday, the region should enjoy a pleasant 4-5 days next week. Parents will be pleased with this favorable break in the wet weather.

By late Fri Mar 25, the wx pattern will shift again into storm mode. In fact, the storm now charting for Sat/Sun Mar 26,27 could be a decent wind producer, along with plenty of rain. A double play may be in store, as a late Sunday storm could also bring on some wind & rain along with cooler temperatures.

March will end with a couple of dry days before April arrives with moderate-to-heavy rainfall and breezy conditions. Mountain snowpack will continue to build, as well.

“Choose your rut carefully; you’ll be in it for the next ten miles.” -road sign in Upstate New York.

-Rufus

 

[Will Gilmore]

“If you kicked the one who causes you most of your troubles, you would not be able to sit down for six weeks."

-Rufus

But will the one who causes those troubles learn a lesson from the kicking? If they could learn, they would have already learned it. Yet...

It is rainy and cool here in Valencia for Las Fallas Festival. The cremà of las fallas tonight, promises to warm it up and dry it out a little. It should be sunny, just across the Balearic Sea, in Italy next week when we are touring the Cinque Terre region.

-Will

 

[Kings Gambit]

Hi John,

Perhaps it’s near time for a NWP weather forecast update? A friend is looking at a transit from SFB to Long Beach in a newly-purchased 45-ft sloop departing SFB in about 10 days. What does the 10-14 day forecast starting today or tomorrow look like for that run?

KG

 

[jssailem]

KG. I’ll take a look this morning. 10 days out departure. Then a 10-14 day passage puts the rounding Pt Conception out there beyond even NOAA’s recognize window of SWAG.

I’ll give the general conditions a look. Our local weather forecast would be “ Improving till it isn’t “. After all it is Spring. I’d tell the sailors to get some good Foulies.

 

[Kings Gambit]

KG. I’ll take a look this morning. 10 days out departure. Then a 10-14 day passage puts the rounding Pt Conception out there beyond even NOAA’s recognize window of SWAG.

I’ll give the general conditions a look. Our local weather forecast would be “ Improving till it isn’t “. After all it is Spring. I’d tell the sailors to get some good Foulies.

The passage itself would be 2-4 days, departing SFB in 10 days. Sorry. Two-week out forecast from now may be a bit far, I recognize.
KG

 

[jssailem]

Next up for the Pacific NW Sailors...
Looks like there may be breaks in what feels like endless rainfall. Here is Rufus's prognostication for the next 2 or so weeks.

Friday March 25

The wide variation in wx model projections we have experienced of late continues. Today’s update presents changes - favorable for OR, especially for agriculture; not so much so for NW WA and BC. Mug refill.

First, the two systems we discussed for this weekend are going to split far apart offshore. One will bring back showers - starting tonight - to areas around the Puget Sound, maybe as far south as Chehalis; the other, much larger system, will drop far to the south to bring rain for CA by Sunday. Oregon & SW WA Patrons are likely to be granted a decent final weekend in March. Saturday should be pleasant, with the chance for a Cascade slope shower or thunderstorm on Sunday, as the big Low moves along central CA coast. Temperatures will be comfortable.

Another weak disturbance may bring clouds & a few showers over the Puget Sound, north on Wed; other than that, next week is looking dry until Fri for much of the PNW. The rain charted earlier is gone. The system that may develop on April Fool’s Day should be short-lived, opening the door for a decent, mild temperature 1st weekend of April. Sunday April 3 could be absolutely PNW delightful. Systems split well-offshore, leaving the PNW under a mild ridge of high pressure, west of those split Lows.

The week of Apr 4-8 is trending as mostly WET, with a series of systems (wetter the farther north one goes from OR into BC). Hard to trust this extended-range outlook, as model projections showing the wet periods have been wrong more often than right. Good reason to keep that Mug handy for these discussions on Mondays and Fridays.

“The only people who don’t have to pass the Civil Service exams to work for the government are taxpayers.”

-Rufus

 

[jssailem]

When you think Spring in the NW it means changing weather. These past two weeks have been sure a reminder of this condition.

I have a good news prophesy to share. The intermittent rain sun hail sequence may be changing... Rufus, my longtime weather prognosticator to the Farmer's of the Willamette valley has just posted the following...

we could get an extended break from the seemingly unending rain & cool wx. Following a chilly, but mostly sunny weekend - with a strong westerly wind in the Columbia River Gorge - models are now trending for a long-lasting 10-14 day WARM, DRY period. Current projections show the week of May 9-13 to be just that - Farming weather! Fri the 13th may see a period of cloudiness, with a random shower in the far northern portion of the PNW, but otherwise dry on through that weekend of May 14,15 (with temps in Willamette Valley teasing the 80s).​

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Dare we write the following? Here goes. The dry, warm pattern noted above could continue into through the week of May 16-20. Temps in the 70s to lower 80s (southern OR). Were this to verify, pollination period for caneberries could be quite favorable. Don’t bet on this yet, but May is typically when we get long stretches of excellent wx in the great PNW. Keep your Mug handy for updates.​

It is time to kick off your socks and tan your toes.

 

[jssailem]

Let’s set aside the gloomy forecasting and talk about a little exciting sailing/cruising weather.

The next 6-7 days look to be very inviting. Beckoning you to your boat. I can almost hear my HADLEY shouting “Come out and play. Untie the lines!”

Here is the prognostication:


Friday May 20

Getting excited about a 6-8 day stretch of dry, mild weather seems odd, but we all know that would result in the longest dry period in seemingly forever. Mug up for more details.

Indeed, we are at the beginning of what could end up as a 7-8 day dry spell. There will be a day or two with increased cloudiness (and maybe a shower over the northern portion of Vancouver Is), but overall pleasant farming and outdoor wx is before us. Finally. The next period of rain/showers & cool temps could start next Fri or hold off until the middle of the Memorial Day weekend. Latest models runs are trending for the later. Temps should range from the 60s into the middle 70s over the next week. Pollination buzzzzz.

Memorial Day weekend: With either scenario mentioned above, Saturday looks mostly dry & warm. A wet cycle is charting to return on Sunday May 29. Memorial Day itself looks damp & unseasonably on the cold side. Plan accordingly for any outdoor activity. We will update this on the 23rd.

The week following the holiday is trending cool & damp for just about every day. Crop development will again slow, if the projected temperatures verify; sweaters or jackets will be needed again.

“An expert can take something you already know and make it sound confusing.”

-Rufus

 

[jssailem]

Has Summer finally come to the Pacific NW.
With a current "Pineapple Express" shooting across the Pacific, you find us looking for the foulies

we thought we could store away until next season. My friend Rufus is stepping out on a limb and suggesting that "Summer" weather may actually be coming our way...Here is the prognostication for the foreseeable future.
***************************************
Friday June 10

Looks like the PNW will soon get a favorable ‘turn’ toward Summer weather pattern. Let’s hope this verifies.

A WET weekend is still on tap, as the ‘jet stream’ directs moisture-saturated air over the PNW. Washington got the drenching yesterday; Oregon is on tap for much of the moderate-to-heavy rain this weekend. Because of the very warm air mass aloft, heavy rain over the mountains not only melts some of the snowpack, but also raises stream & river levels notably. Our large ‘main stem’ rivers will be impacted, esp the Columbia. Expect rain turning to showers by later on Sunday, with showers diminishing from south-to-north as next week begins.

The Turn. Models hint at a Low pressure system remaining off the OR coast by the middle of next week, so we’ll go with a very slight chance for a shower on Thu, but overall after Tue we see a stretch of drying out and WARMING for western portions of the PNW. The weekend of Jun 11,12 is trending rather MUGGY, with a Low moving N out of Nevada across eastern WA that will usher in rather intense showers/thunderstorms over the eastern portions of OR, WA and possibly ID. Some of that moisture may push out of the Cascades into southern OR, as far north as Salem overnight Sat. Early yet, but we may be in for quite a ‘light show’ the night of Jun 11.

Other than that threat for storms cells drifting west next weekend, western portions of the PNW should remain DRY and warm. In fact, if models verify, temperatures later in the week of Jun 13-17 are likely to pop into the 90s (esp southern OR and east side) - for the first time in 2022. Ponder point: will that be the first heat wave of 2022? For now, it looks like onshore flow will cool the west side down by Sunday, Jun 19. California will toasty hot.

“It is when we forget ourselves that we do things that are most likely to be remembered.”

-Rufus

 

[jssailem]

Listening to the weather forecasters might make you feel “Damned to suffer the fires of Hades”.

My friend and forecaster just posted that the temps may be a bit mitigated. Even so use sun screens, drink fluids, find shade. It’s going to be a warm week.

Here is the latest in PNW forecast from Rufus.


Monday July 25

Toasty week ahead, although the heat wave duration may be shorter & max temps a bit lower. Let’s review the latest. Refill time.

All are aware of the heat wave across the PNW this week. What has changed since our last report is that the upper-level air flow may train SMOKE from the California fires over portions of OR, tapping down maximum temps a bit on Tue and Wed, although Tue could end up being hottest day of the week. The other change is the projected strength of onshore flow by this coming weekend, which may be strong enough to push high temps down into the ‘air conditioned’ zone; especially Sunday. All-in-all, still a toasty week ahead, so water-up. Temps in the 90 to mid-90s remain in play, just not a run of triple-digit readings. If no smoke, a 100+ reading remains probable.

As noted, cooler weather is on the charts beginning Sunday, with a weak trough dropping down from the NW, ushering in cool, marine air. Breezy afternoons. Temps by later nextweek - as August gets underway - may actually run a tad below normal, if recent model adjustments verify. The weekend of Aug 6,7 is trending warm, seasonal.

The second full week of Aug is charting to start out a bit cool, then warm-up into the 80s & 90s by mid-week.

Bottom line: overall temps this week should trend a few degrees lower than expected, and a cooler pattern may return by Sunday.

 

[MikeHoncho]

Warm in Sucia today but cooled off nicely as the sun sets. Water temp in Echo is 50f. Bluebird day in Swansons Channel with 15-18 with gusts to 21. Straight beam reach from Provost to Patos. Single reefed all the way for comfort.