TS Franklin

Feb 14, 2014
7,417
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Like PTC Emily, TS Franklin, jumps up quickly, even though they noticed the possibility on late Saturday.

It is barely cyclonic, with a very wide center, or less likely to intensify because the center pressure is moderately LOW.

The mountainous Yucatan will shred TS Franklin keeping it a moderate storm, as the path is generally due West.
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What I am finding very noteworthy is how far South the 2017 storms are forming. A long series of, ESE flowing, High Pressures fronts are pushing the formation area South and steering [pushing] them away from Gulf and USA Mainland.

Last year there was a kind of Pumping of High, Low, High, Low... not so this year, so far...
More like HIGH, low, HIGH, low... where the lows are hardly seen on the map. One cause of the cyclonic spin is that Pressure Front, pumping action.
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Another spot of interest is a non cyclonic storm off West African storm kindergarten area, now heading along the 2017 Southern path. Nothing expected till late this week.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,417
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Franklin moves at standard speed westward toward Vera Cruz, Mexico. It should kiss the 70 mph threshold of Hurricane title. It will die in the jungles and mountains of that State of Mexico. Since Vera Cruz is Tropical , the rains should not be a big problem. The border state of Tamaulipas, Mexico will get much of the rain.

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There is a potential of the the storm I mentioned above, becoming cyclonic. It is now East of the Leeward, Islands. That could the first storm to spin up and be in the normal tracking area. It should be watched closely, but still 5 days before it will make the News, if any.
Jim...

PS: I lived in Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico for 4 years.;)
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,417
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Oops, I forgot the West Coast.:(
Are you getting chilly up there in the Pacific Northwest?

Wow August 50's, really? There is a Canadian Low Pressure pushing down across the USA now.

Cooling is good, Low Pressures are not good for pushing storms away from USA.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,417
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Franklin is gone!:clap: I think it made Hurricane status for about 20 seconds.:laugh: Not all the "torrential rains" came either.:rolleyes:

Cautious News....

There is a potential of the the storm I mentioned above, becoming cyclonic. It is now East of the Leeward, Islands.
There is a better chance of that storm, now a few hundred miles ENE of the Leewards Is.. forming a Tropical Depression [TD 40% chance in 5 days]

There is LOW trough moving across Central USA now and it will not have the PUSH needed to be a big USA shield.

The Jet Stream today would steer that storm NE and miss USA. Right now, I don't have enough info to be confident, but this storm is well worth watching daily through the weekend.

My best guess is the LOW may make it a TD and the Jet Stream move it toward Bermuda.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,417
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Jet Stream today would steer that storm NE and miss USA. Right now, I don't have enough info to be confident, but this storm is well worth watching daily through the weekend.

My best guess is the LOW may make it a TD and the Jet Stream move it toward Bermuda.
Hmmm pretty good guess[last Thursday] on what is now Tropical Depression 8.:biggrin:
Jim...