Tropical Storm Don

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Don sprung up quickly and is currently tracking through the normal NON-Hurricane areas South of the Antilles and heading toward the Dessert Islands called ABC's Aruba is most famous.

The surface water temperatures here are normal for season. This was the Matthew track and because of low storm chances, the data input to most reliable computer models is scarce.

What was the surprise to forecasters last year was how deep the warm water were in this area.
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As a tropical wave passed it normally churns up colder subsurface waters to temper hotter surface water and slow down the storm's intensity.
Not true for the current forecasted path. Deep warm waters.:frown:
So much for the Bad news.
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Good News for USA...
There are 2 sequential High Pressure fronts moving from West going SE. Their timings will push TS Don south and force it to maintain its path going West at least until Saturday.
Also the Jet stream is pushing the steering winds away from the Gulf of Mexico.:clap:
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It appears that Nicaragua & Honduras will get the rain but their mountains should Shred TS Don and die a rainy death there.

By Wednesday there will be enough new data to confirm that it won't do a loop back into Gulf.
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I will update as needed to stay way out in front of TS Don

Jim...

PS: Our friend @capta is normally in the Antilles and should be north of wind problems.:yeah:
 
Last edited:
May 27, 2004
1,964
Hunter 30_74-83 Ponce Inlet FL
James, Thanks for the concise and clear synopsis of the weather forecast for
TS Dan.
Do you do these regularly? If so, where can I find your reports in the future?
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Do you do these regularly?
Yes and post them in this forum as I see the course and intensity storm drivers change. You might check my "editorial note:" as to why on my post#14 on this link.
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/i...ason-2017-atlantic-and-gulf-of-mexico.186471/

Any and all can add more info to help us with preparations to protect ourselves and our pleasure crafts. I will never suggest risking anything.

In today ratings driven forecasts, I like to use my science background to lets say...

"Clear the decks before I batten down the hatches"

I will report on all Tropical Disturbances in this fashion. Some boring and some we need keep a ...

Weather eye on!;)

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Bye Bye Don..:clap:

There a new tropical wave is expected to spin off the West African coast by late Saturday.

And we begin Atlantic 2017 season...
Jim...
 
Sep 25, 2008
7,075
Alden 50 Sarasota, Florida
Not sure I understand this thread. I'm all for helping each other out but, other than using bandwidth, does regurgitating NOAA et. al. weather forecasts accomplish that?

Not that it is likely anyone doesn't already know where to get weather info or would depend on a post here but I'd hate to see anyone misled by not reading the full forecasts and predictions of storms.
 
May 25, 2012
4,333
john alden caravelle 42 sturgeon bay, wis
ALL sailors are weather watchers, i assume. the weather brings us joy and pain.
having conversation, such as on this web site, seems great to me. playing the weather is one of the great chess matches we captains play with mother nature. the weather produces the wind powering our wind toys.
weather, wind are a couple of the most important subjects to discuss and learn for sailors.
actually, i'm baffled that wind discussions are never done both here and other sites.
 
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May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
Well the misnaming of the tropical storm as Dan instead of Don did not offer a sense of confidence in the forecast.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Pacific-bred storm analysis
The BIG POND, Pacific is the key to most USA weather trends. Right now we are between a very Large El Niño and a blip of La Niña. Kinda of in Neutral. Also your Puerto Penasco Mx location is near the Pacific storms spin offs areas or "kindergarden" The dry Dessert areas of Northern Mexico is similar to the African Dessert effects. Difference is Gulf and Pacific are closer together.;)

Most of the west coast is coast is Controlled by the North Pacific Current Loop, which is Huge and so huge that it causes the noticeable SOLAR heat pumping effect of Hot to Cool to Hot to Cool... El Kiddo's ;) [my over simplification for sure]. As our SUN is going through a many years Cooling trend, the El Kiddo's effects will be less pronounced in the near years to come.

One reason The Pacific is tough to follow is, in all honesty, very low Data input stations.
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did not offer a sense of confidence in the forecast
Me either:banghead:. As I corrected my Title and Posts. Like I have said, since Katrina I am batting about 950 on getting about 2-4 days in front of tropical wave courses and intensity versus standard news forecasts. Most likely reason is not my smarts, but News forecasts fears of being wrong.
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i'm baffled that wind discussions are never done both here and other sites
After Katrina, I started doing Storm forensics and noticed Wind Effects. One really wild observation was that most pine trees around 8-10 inches in base diameter Snapped off the top, at the same spot at about 30 to 40' above ground. Looked like a grass cutter. Smaller diameter pines, swayed with the winds, bigger resisted the winds.

Also streets became a wind "funnel" or amplifier. Houses and trees on either street side acted like walls and winds followed the path of least resistance down the street or was termed "Buzz saw effect"

So...
Open ocean winds are resisted only by the surface waters and flow from High pressures to Lower pressure fronts and are high altitude grossly guided by Jet Stream.

Local coastal winds have many more variables like the land etc.
There are some new Apps that link your boats wind instruments to a "shared service" kinda like AIS to report your boats GPS and wind condition "at the moment". Not on my list of toys , yet:waycool:
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This is the NOAA based forecast today
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila



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T
his is the Mine today:
There is a tropical wave spinning off West Africa south of Cape Verde islands.
It is south of the normal Atlantic births, but will probably become a point of INVESTIGATION or Invest in the next few days. Using the normal west movement speed it would be ≈12 days before land impact.

Anticipated path is over warmer, than normal, waters which are being cooled right now by rain storms.

Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,039
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
I hope Jim will continue these posts. They were helpful to me last year because they lack the hysteria of the media and the CYA mindset of NOAA. I don't know nutin' about Ninos, ninas, normal water temps etc., jet streams and wouldn't know what of make of same if I did know. But if I know a few days sooner that I should follow this one or ignore that one my hurricane season will be bettered. So thanks, Jim.
 

Gunni

.
Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
Speaking of media hysteria, TS Don is the fabrication of those weather hysterics at the weather channel. NOAA didn't find this weather system significant from the get go and never named it. You may remember that the weather channel started giving names to snow storms a year or so ago; drama sells.
 
Feb 20, 2011
7,990
Island Packet 35 Tucson, AZ/San Carlos, MX
Well the misnaming of the tropical storm as Dan instead of Don did not offer a sense of confidence in the forecast.
Weather's a crapshoot, whether or not a name is spelled correctly.

I like a good African dessert, myself.
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,039
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
And watch your insurance deductibles automatically go up on Names storms.
I think they do go up to a percentage of the property value (Like 10%) and I think that's why everything past a thunderstorm gets a name now days. Who decides when to name a storm? Who do the insurance companies recognize as the naming authority? With a huge amount of money at stake my bulls**t meter is red lined.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Who do the insurance companies recognize as the naming authority?
NOAA.
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Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour. A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour.
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Our home wind insurance is 2% deductible until a named storm. 5% if hit by a named storm.
Short version, I have no roof replacement insurance. Oh well, I have been self insured for years anyway.
Jim...