• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Storm Activity in Atlantic

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We are looking at 2 more West African tropical disturbances in the next 10 days.
1) Starting Tuesday Sept 4
2) Starting Thursday Sept 6

The first...
Looks weak but steering toward the Antilles and will be noteworthy by NOAA about the Sept 8th.

The second...
Strengthening quickly as it enters. This one will be compact.
____
Normally they move East WEST [Corrected] at 10-15 mph so the earliest impact to land would be around the 12th for #1 and the 15th for #2

Time to double check your preparation for this season.
Jim...
 
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Oct 19, 2017
7,732
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
My wife says, as I read your report to her, "Stupid us. We shouldn't be going to Puerto Rico" on the 27th.
They are still talking about their recovery efforts from Maria. I have a good feeling about the weather, though. It was fantastic while we were in Scotland, by typical Scottish standards, that is. Then we are in Mexico for Dios de los Muertos. Hoping all the bad weather works itself out by then.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hoping all the bad weather works itself out by then.
Well bad weather is with us all the time. [Thunders storm outside right now;)]
The type of weather I am referring too is...

Catastrophic Weather:yikes:

We don't stop cooking for fear of being burned, we take precautions to avoid major issues.

The good news is Catastrophic Weather should be calming down to "irritating summer weather" soon.

Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
We shouldn't be going to Puerto Rico" on the 27th.
You might check out the "Isaac" effect in PR, but should be relatively normal after.
November 1st in Mexico, normal.

Anecdote: A good friend living here, in Katrina country, just got tired of being in Hurricane Country. She moved to North Carolina to live with her sister. So the moral to the story...
Prepare for Catastrophic Weather, avoidance is difficult at times.
 
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SFS

.
Aug 18, 2015
2,065
Currently Boatless Okinawa
... "Stupid us. We shouldn't be going to Puerto Rico" on the 27th.....
-Will (Dragonfly)
It could be worse. We're headed to Bermuda that same day, assuming there is a Bermuda left. If not, I guess the cruise line will re-route.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Pacific also!!
One cruise line is scheduled to dock in Hawaii the Day Hurricane Olivia hits.:(
 
Sep 30, 2013
3,538
1988 Catalina 22 North Florida
Yup. Those people had ZERO warning. Most of the population were slaves or indentured servants, living in shanties. They had no chance whatsoever. None.
 
Jun 21, 2004
2,532
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
We criticize the National Weather Service for their forecasts and hurricane predictions; however, at least we do have early warnings. We have come to expect pin point forecasting accuracy; however, at least we know a storm is out there and that we may be impacted a few days in advance. Hopefully the citizens of the Carolinas and Virginia will take advantage of the advanced warnings and prepare themselves accordingly...Florence is going to be a bad one. If you're interested in meteorology and want to read a good book about storms, read "Isaac's Storm." A story about the 1900 Storm that wiped out Galveston, TX; and about the infancy of hurricane forecasting. The Great Storm was the worst natural disaster in US History. Approximately 8,000 people died and they didn't have a clue as to what was descending upon them until it was too late. Unfortunately, even with the advanced warnings that we now have, many are too stubborn or cavalier to seek refuge and suffer the same fate.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hopefully the citizens of the Carolinas and Virginia will take advantage of the advanced warnings and prepare themselves accordingly
I had warned my friends and family in that region about 5 days ago. They did heed my advice.:):)

Anecdote: One of them packed up their family, dog, grandma, etc and went on early vacation to Gatlinburg TN yesterday. They left a now mandatory evacuation area in , NC.:clap::clap:

Dammit Jim...

PS: Saying a prayer for all of them now.
 
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Oct 26, 2010
1,881
Hunter 40.5 Beaufort, SC
The Governor of SC has just issued a Mandatory Evacuation for all of Beaufort County SC starting Tuesday at noon. Seems like an over-reaction to me. It just causes panic and unintended consequences. I can't see the benefit of such an early evacuation or if one even needs to be issued for this particular location.

Dammit Jim what is your take on this? Beaufort County is in the extreme southern coast just above Savannah GA. The projected winds are only expected to be about 20 kts gusting to 29 kts. I understand the concept of the track "come" and the models all seem to be very tightly packed just above Wilmington NC about 220 miles north of here. I just can't understand the mandatory evacuation.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Dammit Jim what is your take on this? Beaufort County is in the extreme southern coast just above Savannah GA.
At this point, I will only tell you my best shot @smokey73 in a PM in a few minutes. Remember I am not NOAA or a FEMA official. Trust me, the State/Local Governments know where, when and how strong,... Right now. Follow their orders.!

Dammit Jim...
 
Jun 21, 2004
2,532
Beneteau 343 Slidell, LA
:pray:
Prayers for Jim’s families and all the NC/VA families about experience the rath of Florence.
May they find safety and protection from the storm.
:pray:
Amen! hope everyone stays safe and weathers this storm without incident.
 
Oct 19, 2017
7,732
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
Here is an interesting photo from an NPR Webpage: https://www.npr.org/2018/09/10/6462...e-spins-up-into-a-major-storm-heading-for-u-s
September 10, 201811:02 AM ET

"Hurricane Florence, at center, is a Category 4 storm heading for the Carolinas. To the east, hurricanes Isaac and Helene (far right) are seen in the Atlantic Ocean. To the west, a tropical disturbance has developed over the northwest Caribbean Sea."
-NOAA
Another one Google says was 17 hours ago


I'd love to see an animated 48 hour loop like this.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 
Mar 20, 2011
623
Hunter 31_83-87 New Orleans
Oddly enough this pic from Will G looks like a Van Gogh painting. Hope all the sailors on the east coast handle this storm well with little or no damage to boats and lives.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,989
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
This storm for NC and SC is not to be discounted. It is looking to be a serious rain dump. Be safe guys.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
After the early September crazy start, it appears a somewhat refreshing pause until at least the end of September.
We are passing the peak of the Caribbean birthed storms.

HIGH pressure fronts, normally fair weather, are dominating the Central USA. Hopefully less rain for the soaked East Coast.
Good sailing weather, if you can.
Jim...
 
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