Registered users don't see ads

Hurricane Season 2018 Starts

Discussion in 'Sails Call Lounge' started by JamesG161, Jun 1, 2018. Add this thread to a FAQ

  1. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    I post info here that is for use as you will, but I do try to be ahead of the "filtered" new cycle.
    The official forecast says 75% above normal season.
    8189.png
    I read it differently. How about 65% chance of below normal?

    I quit predicting "named storm" count. Wow, how brave of NOAA ... 10-16?
    I could predict 10-20.:rolleyes:
    Speaking of Names...
    DemRAtyXUAErt8V.jpg.jpeg

    If you have been to New Orleans, they make a drink called "hurricane"
    So pick your type...
    DemVkLIVQAEOgTU.jpeg

    If you really want to know where Hurricanes will hit, follow the WeatherChannel guy
    DemxRMqW0AExXZl.jpeg
    ______
    The uncertainty and doubt by Models and Forecasters is from the Pacific Effects.
    La Niña is officially Done.
    The starting of El Niño is in doubt and almost looking for it After 2018 season.
    [El Niño disrupts and weakens Atlantic Hurricanes.]

    The last main predictor is Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]. Right now it is slightly lower that 2017. Good News!:thumbup:

    What is a bit different, IMHO, is the birth places of Atlantic Storms.
    1) West Africa
    2) Caribbean
    3) Eastern Pacific South of Mexico [Alberto]

    Number 3 is rare, but crossing the Isthmus into the very warm SW Caribbean.
    This looks to be a place to watch in 2018.;)
    ______
    Time to get prepared is NOW and not 3 days before a strike.
    Jim...
     


    BigEasy and jssailem like this.
  2. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,166 posts, 1,642 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    I'll keep sending you the Rufus updates.
     


    JamesG161 likes this.
  3. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Rufus should be hired by NOAA.
    He predicted Alberto about 20 days in advance. Rufus was a bit surprised too.
    He is a PNWest forecaster. High pressures from there push storms away from USA or minimize them.
    Jim...
     


  4. ggrizzard

    ggrizzard

    Joined May 27, 2004
    960 posts, 65 likes
    Hunter 30_74-83
    US Ponce Inlet FL
    Thanks Jim. Your timely updates keep us focused.
    G.
     


    JamesG161 likes this.
  5. BigEasy

    BigEasy

    Joined Jun 21, 2004
    827 posts, 151 likes
    Beneteau 343
    US Slidell, LA
    My philosophy on storm season predictions, regardless of the number of hurricanes forecasted; if you get hit, it’s a catastrophic year, if you don’t get hit it’s a great year! We shall see how it plays out this year, soon enough.
     


    JimInPB likes this.
  6. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    3) Has the early activity
    The first Hurricane "Aletta" of the season, is in the Pacific, with "Bud" forming up now. They are headed out to sea.;)

    Thanks to a series of HIGH pressures, pulsing down from the Pacific North West [PNW] to the Gulf and S.East Atlantic these storms didn't "sneak" into the Caribbean.:)

    At least early in this season...
    Watch the East Pacific for quick storm development.

    Jim...

    PS: The African Sahara Winds are way South of normal and spinning up these storms.
     


  7. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,166 posts, 1,642 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    Jim. There is a low taking shape on the 14 of June of the Mexican coast. Is that the “Bud” you are tracking?
     


  8. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,166 posts, 1,642 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    I see how the Northen Pacific High is blocking these equatorial lows from tracking north. Appears to squeeze them East towards Central America.
     


  9. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Sooner than June 14th for "Bud"
     


  10. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    ep_rTCFP_048.gif \
    two_pac_2d0.png

    X marks the spot for Bud.
    Jim...
     


  11. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,623 posts, 673 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Hurricane Bud is now heading north, perhaps helping the desert areas on Northern Mexico with some always welcome rain.

    My Point...
    These early season storm are tending to form Near the Isthmus of Panama.
    These storm's trajectories will depend on the timing of HIGH pressures from the Pacific North West.

    Characteristics of Storms so far...
    1) Slow forming center [caused by upper wind disturbances] Note: Tougher to track
    2) Quick moving once formed [normally doesn't allow much strengthening]
    3) Can surprised us [ as opposed to West African births]

    There is a point of interest now in SW Caribbean, but it should be "destroyed" by the HIGH's that recently left the PNW.

    Check out your Hurricane Preparedness soon.
    Jim...
     



Gray ports and parts
The most popular port on boats built from the 70s into the 90s.
Sunbrella lifesling covers
Any color, fits over existing bag to match your existing canvas.
NEW rigid hatch covers
Hatch protection like never before. Tough, secure, installs in seconds.
Stainless documentation placard
Who said a documentation placard cant be beautiful? Brushed stainless with laser-fused numerals.