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Hurricane Season 2018 Revised

Discussion in 'Sails Call Lounge' started by JamesG161, Jun 1, 2018. Add this thread to a FAQ

  1. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    I post info here that is for use as you will, but I do try to be ahead of the "filtered" new cycle.
    The official forecast says 75% above normal season.
    8189.png
    I read it differently. How about 65% chance of below normal?

    I quit predicting "named storm" count. Wow, how brave of NOAA ... 10-16?
    I could predict 10-20.:rolleyes:
    Speaking of Names...
    DemRAtyXUAErt8V.jpg.jpeg

    If you have been to New Orleans, they make a drink called "hurricane"
    So pick your type...
    DemVkLIVQAEOgTU.jpeg

    If you really want to know where Hurricanes will hit, follow the WeatherChannel guy
    DemxRMqW0AExXZl.jpeg
    ______
    The uncertainty and doubt by Models and Forecasters is from the Pacific Effects.
    La Niña is officially Done.
    The starting of El Niño is in doubt and almost looking for it After 2018 season.
    [El Niño disrupts and weakens Atlantic Hurricanes.]

    The last main predictor is Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]. Right now it is slightly lower that 2017. Good News!:thumbup:

    What is a bit different, IMHO, is the birth places of Atlantic Storms.
    1) West Africa
    2) Caribbean
    3) Eastern Pacific South of Mexico [Alberto]

    Number 3 is rare, but crossing the Isthmus into the very warm SW Caribbean.
    This looks to be a place to watch in 2018.;)
    ______
    Time to get prepared is NOW and not 3 days before a strike.
    Jim...
     


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  2. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,897 posts, 2,061 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    I'll keep sending you the Rufus updates.
     


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  3. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Rufus should be hired by NOAA.
    He predicted Alberto about 20 days in advance. Rufus was a bit surprised too.
    He is a PNWest forecaster. High pressures from there push storms away from USA or minimize them.
    Jim...
     


  4. ggrizzard

    ggrizzard

    Joined May 27, 2004
    1,004 posts, 89 likes
    Hunter 30_74-83
    US Ponce Inlet FL
    Thanks Jim. Your timely updates keep us focused.
    G.
     


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  5. BigEasy

    BigEasy

    Joined Jun 21, 2004
    921 posts, 187 likes
    Beneteau 343
    US Slidell, LA
    My philosophy on storm season predictions, regardless of the number of hurricanes forecasted; if you get hit, it’s a catastrophic year, if you don’t get hit it’s a great year! We shall see how it plays out this year, soon enough.
     


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  6. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    3) Has the early activity
    The first Hurricane "Aletta" of the season, is in the Pacific, with "Bud" forming up now. They are headed out to sea.;)

    Thanks to a series of HIGH pressures, pulsing down from the Pacific North West [PNW] to the Gulf and S.East Atlantic these storms didn't "sneak" into the Caribbean.:)

    At least early in this season...
    Watch the East Pacific for quick storm development.

    Jim...

    PS: The African Sahara Winds are way South of normal and spinning up these storms.
     


  7. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,897 posts, 2,061 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    Jim. There is a low taking shape on the 14 of June of the Mexican coast. Is that the “Bud” you are tracking?
     


  8. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,897 posts, 2,061 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    I see how the Northen Pacific High is blocking these equatorial lows from tracking north. Appears to squeeze them East towards Central America.
     


  9. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Sooner than June 14th for "Bud"
     


  10. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    ep_rTCFP_048.gif \
    two_pac_2d0.png

    X marks the spot for Bud.
    Jim...
     


  11. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Hurricane Bud is now heading north, perhaps helping the desert areas on Northern Mexico with some always welcome rain.

    My Point...
    These early season storm are tending to form Near the Isthmus of Panama.
    These storm's trajectories will depend on the timing of HIGH pressures from the Pacific North West.

    Characteristics of Storms so far...
    1) Slow forming center [caused by upper wind disturbances] Note: Tougher to track
    2) Quick moving once formed [normally doesn't allow much strengthening]
    3) Can surprised us [ as opposed to West African births]

    There is a point of interest now in SW Caribbean, but it should be "destroyed" by the HIGH's that recently left the PNW.

    Check out your Hurricane Preparedness soon.
    Jim...
     


  12. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Well Well Well!!!:biggrin:

    Today the National Hurricane Center REVISED their forecast for the 2018 Season.
    GRAPHIC -Numbers - Outlook Aug 9 update 2018 - NOAA.png.png

    I have privately forecasted this year with friends and family who have seen Hurricane Damage. Mine was done at the start of season.

    Thanks to @jssailem and his "Rufus" Pacific North West forecaster, my forecast being on target.

    My post #1 is still the trend.

    Note the change in MAJOR Atlantic season forecast change.:clap:

    As of today the Atlantic has one point of interest, but it will fade away soon.
    ______
    This is the key...

    The African winds, which spin the Counter Clockwise start, are way South this year. Before they can get a good start, Equatorial Winds from South America are spinning Clock Wise.:kick:

    Collision!

    ______
    We still need to prepare our family and boats for the worst case.
    Jim...
     


    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018 at 3:43 PM
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  13. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    5,897 posts, 2,061 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    Be ready or be sorry.
     


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  14. Rick Webb

    Rick Webb

    Joined Jun 2, 2004
    2,678 posts, 104 likes
    Hunter 23.5
    US Fort Walton Yacht Club, Florida
    The only storms that are significant for us have four letters and start with a vowel.

    No such storm names on this years list so my prediction is a good year for us along the Northern Florida Gulf Coast
     


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  15. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    2,896 posts, 838 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    OKAY
    :cowbell:
    Jim...
     


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