• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Lane

Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
As noted in the previous post on TS Kristy...
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/index.php?threads/ts-kristy-gone-new-storm-starting.192859/
My post #3 notes this new storm.

This is now the Tropical Storm Lane

TS Lane
is tracking toward Hawaii, but should pass South as near miss.
As this part of the Pacific had been well traveled by this years storms, the water have been de-energized and should limit TS Lane's intensification.

However, you should follow TS Lane closely, as he passes near Hawaii Aug 20-23.
Jim...
 
Jan 11, 2014
11,418
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
@JamesG161 Mahalo for the Heads Up!

Here's a link to an article from Big Island News about TS Lane: http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2...pected-to-enter-central-pacific-as-hurricane/

The forecast shows the storm tracking much closer to the Big Island than Hector did a few weeks ago. The most vulnerable part of the island is the Puna District on the SE corner of the island. This area was devastated a few years ago by Hurricane Iselle. This is also the location of the latest volcanic eruption. The Puna District is one of the poorest areas in the state and one that was affordable by those of modest means. Most of the area is farm land and small housing developments. The population there has been devastated by the eruption. The Big Island Video News has done a great job covering the disaster.

In early June I visited the Big Island and met some of the volunteer relief workers. After only 30 days of the eruption, they were feeling the stress and worried about the hurricane season and how the island would be affected. Unfortunately, it looks like some of their fears may be well founded.

The Food Basket is the local food bank and it provides a lot of support for local community food banks. I know their resources have been stretched thin with the eruption and the area is a high need area, any support folks can provide will be greatly appreciated.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Hurricane Lane appears to be going south of the Big Island, but going to turn NNW to give the Islands some storm surge.

Hopefully not causing much damage.
Jim...

PS: No other tropical Activity in Atlantic region for next 10 days.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
For the Hurricane Hunters Mission through Hurricane Lane...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

The dropsonde data is interesting to see the anatomy of Lane. It has a very tight eye wall.
Surface wind speed 117 knots.
_____
Lane is compact and turning now. High pressure system north of the Islands is pushing south.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Here is the plot of that Data buoy. Dramatic falling of the Barometric pressure is starting.
plot_wind_pres.php.png


Still hours away from Lane,
Jim...
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,099
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Am I reading this correctly..
Those guys are flying (punching through the storm front 378 knts) through the storms at 7,400 to 13,000 feet above the water?
That is some BIG cajones.
 
Jan 11, 2014
11,418
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
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Oct 22, 2014
21,099
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
more turbulent than most flights
I hope to shout Dave. I am guessing, the wind shear alone between the eye and the storm front could tear the wings off most planes. The lifts and drops could put you on the floor or the ceiling, if you were not strapped in.

It would be a hoot. Better than an E ticket at Disneyland.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,421
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
My brother piloted the P-3 Orion listed @dlochner post #9 link.
Please note the names of their crafts @Kermit and Miss Piggy.
The wings are very "flexible" and very low stall speeds.

I bet they wear boxing teeth guard though.
Jim...

PS: If I remember right, the stall speed with full flaps was ≈90 knots
 
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Jan 11, 2014
11,418
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
When I was a kid, my father worked for the FAA commissioning and maintaining instrument landing systems in the NY region. This entailed flying a DC-3 at very low altitudes over NJ and the hills in northern Jersey. From time to time I got to go along for the ride, it was fun lots of bouncing and turbulence, never lost my cookies. :biggrin:

On one flight all the crew brought their families for a "fun family outing" while the Dads worked and flew in circles around northern NJ. I'm proud to say that I was only family member did not need to use the burp bags the crew provided.

Even now I look forward to a little turbulence when I'm flying, so long as it doesn't spill my Bloody Mary.
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,099
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
I did not know that NOAA was using P3's I knew the USAF used the WC 130. That is one tough bird.
I only had one bad trip on the P2 out of Andrews. It was so rough. I stayed strapped in the nose as a visual look out. Not much to see. The MAD gear was unusable. It was a pretty useless trip. At least the Commander got his flight time and storm qualification.