Hurricane José and More

Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Looks like it is just wandering around, but it is stalled as a High Pressure over Bermuda Passes Eastward.
At least José is stalled in the Atlantic and de-energizing that area [not like Texas Harvey].

José should curve behind that Atlantic HIGH and flow in the trough between the HIGH over PA today. Timing of the arc's curve looks like foul weather for Bermuda area around 9/15 - 9/17. [calculated guess]

tgsfc24.gif


Hopefully future African storm's timings will be better than Irma. Irma moved Westward faster than normal.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
José making his sweep around the High Front End and trying to run the Gap...

tgsfc24-2.gif

Run José Run....
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
José is slowly turning, but very weak from removing Heat from Evaporative Cooling of Atlantic. The curve is now showing up in the models.
_________
Africa continues to "pump" off storms with potentials to form a tropical wave.

The good news is that due to previous storms, tropical or not, the more Southerly paths have been cooled dramatically.

The Caribbean just south of Cuba is still has plenty of unused Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

There are 2 storms, that are paced about 7 days apart, in East Atlantic now. Keep a weather eye on them.

The Pacific North West continues to pump HIGH pressures across the USA to help push storms south.
Jim...
 

jviss

.
Feb 5, 2004
6,745
Tartan 3800 20 Westport, MA
"Skim" is fine as long as that includes 45 to 55 kt. winds in New England, starting East and backing into the North Wednesday to Thursday.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Today's Pressure Front Map perhaps illustrates how Hurricanes are mainly steered by HIGH pressure fronts. Many other steering factors, of course, but a good example.

MariaPressFront.gif


I added the Gold movement Vectors on the 2 HIGH's . They normally move at 10-12 mph and in general direction shown

Storms will track on the "path of least resistance". I think of Pressure waves, like water waves. High are peaks, Lows are valleys.

I also added the Purple curving dashed arrows to show "path of least resistance". Hurricanes move generally West, if unimpeded, at a speed of 10-15 mph. José path is Impeded and will be forced in the Low valley.

________
José will skim the East Coast. Skimming is much better than being near the Eye Wall [where maximum winds and waves are located]. I hope you can see that "Timing is everything". The HIGH centered over the Great Lake will tend to help shield the East Coast.

Jim...
 

jviss

.
Feb 5, 2004
6,745
Tartan 3800 20 Westport, MA
I hope you can see that "Timing is everything".
I certainly can, but what are you trying to say? What does "skim" mean? As far as I can tell now, we are still in danger of dangerous winds and tons of rain on the South Coast of MA.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,399
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
What does "skim" mean?
I meant it as a NOT direct hit of Eye wall .

All storms are serious things to prepared for. I do this post for preparations well in advance for boaters.

I feel better if I understand what may happen versus listen to the National News.
See my Editorial Note on my post# 14 on this link.
https://forums.sailboatowners.com/i...ason-2017-atlantic-and-gulf-of-mexico.186471/

Jim...

PS: I have lived through 8 Direct Eye Wall Hits. Katrina's Eye passed within 10 miles and my ears "popped" from the Extreme pressure drop as it passed. I have a video of my rolled vinyl kitchen flooring "ballooning" with entrapped air to prove it.
I will take any "skims", any day.