Hurricane Harvey

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I have been watching 3 storms leaving West Africa for 5 days. The first is a wimp, disorganized storm between Cuba and Antiqua which should not become cyclonic.:pray:
But the next 2 storms are very noteworthy.

Tropical Depression 9 [Storm A]
Is 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving fast, due West, and will be over the Antilles in 2 days.
They're sending the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it tomorrow morning.:yikes:
They don't send them unless there is at least 50:50 chance of becoming cyclonic.

My rough calculations would put that Storm A , south of Haiti in 5 Days.

At this time, there is Pushing High Pressure now centered over Colorado, that should keep Storm A from entering the Gulf, but is a matter of close timing.
________
Storm B
This is just leaving the African coast and is 800 miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands and should be where Storm A is now, in ≈4 days.
THIS one is perhaps the first big potential of this season.

Why do I bring it up now, 10 days before the News?
Do your storm preparations soon and not when there are no batteries in the store.;)

________
Both storms are expected to travel over, near normal temperature waters.:)
Jim...

PS: I call them storms since they are not cyclonic, so far.
 
Last edited:
Jun 18, 2015
69
Mascot 28 Pilothouse Motorsailer Grand Manan
I have been watching 3 storms leaving West Africa for 5 days. The first is a wimp, disorganized storm between Cuba and Antiqua which should not become cyclonic.:pray:
But the next 2 storms are very noteworthy.

Storm A
Is 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving fast, due West, and will be over the Antilles in 2 days.
They're sending the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it tomorrow morning.:yikes:
They don't send them unless there is at least 50:50 chance of becoming cyclonic.

My rough calculations would put that Storm A , south of Haiti in 5 Days.

At this time, there is Pushing High Pressure now centered over Colorado, that should keep Storm A from entering the Gulf, but is a matter of close timing.
________
Storm B
This is just leaving the African coast and is 800 miles West of the Cabo Verde Islands and should be where Storm A is now, in ≈4 days.
THIS one is perhaps the first big potential of this season.

Why do I bring it up now, 10 days before the News?
Do your storm preparations soon and not when there are no batteries in the store.;)

________
Both storms are expected to travel over, near normal temperature waters.:)
Jim...

PS: I call them storms since they are not cyclonic, so far.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Len
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Cool, X marks the spots. When and where they will be in 5 days? Look above.

This is what I look at...
storms.jpg

And for Temperatures of water for Storm intensifying..

TEMPS A&B.jpg

The pink is above normals for this day of year and blues and clear are ≤ normal.
Jim...
 
May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
View attachment 139927
The pink is above normals for this day of year and blues and clear are ≤ normal.
Jim...
Fail to see the relevance of showing designations of above and below normal temperatures in the chart. A normal temperature in the Gulf will still be hotter than an above normal temperature in the East coast in the Atlantic. Actual temperatures is what drives intensification and not comparisons to average past readings. Our Gulf water temperature is currently 90F and we look forward to them wimpy waves so that the rain and wind generated motion can cool it down a few degrees before a strong one approaches.
 
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Sep 10, 2012
220
Hunter 450 Gulfport, Florida
I also heard a reference to a storm "C" that seems to be crowdsourcing energy. Is that high shown in the gulf a capable steering pressure?
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Fail to see the relevance of showing designations of above and below normal temperatures in the chart.
The term ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] is what is use to forecast intensity, strength building, and potential Damage. So we need lots of rain to remove that Energy or Heat.

Surface Temperatures are a part of indicating "Heat Content" of the waters. Really it is the top 30 or 40 feet of the waters over the pathway, since the storm "mixes" near surface waters.

The Relevance to me..
We have heard this season that we expect High Intensity and Frequency. NASA sees our Sun on a natural Cooling trend. Sun=Energy=Heat, Temperature attempts to measure Heat, but is not all the info that is needed. Heat drives Hurricanes, not temperatures.

So far this 2017 season, the pathway waters are near normal temperatures and NOT excessive.

It not near shore waters that are key. Hurricanes don't like land, land has no big HEAT storing[capacity] areas, like open oceans.
_______
I also heard a reference to a storm "C"
Yeah, it is the time of the season, for the African Storm Pump to start. So far those are Trending more South than normal. "C" does look bigger on Satellite but only one, Storm A is now appearing cyclonic. We will know more by 4pm EST today[Hurricane Hunters in flight now].

Is that high shown in the gulf a capable steering pressure?
Absolutely!!! That High moves at ≈10 mph in a ESE direction and will literally push that Low , like a shield for the Gulf. Good thing for us Gulf Coast Sailors. There is another HIGH behind that one, whose timing MAY continue to Shield the Gulf from Storm B.
Jim...

PS: Weather forecasters have created a new term to Describe Heat Content of outside weather. "Feels Like Temperature" in place of Relative Humidity or Dew Point. We all know high humidity air at 90° feels hotter.;)
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Now official Tropical Depression 9, my old name Storm A. Hurricane Hunters reported estimated surface wind speeds of 35 mph.

The computer models are now kicking into play and they are projecting the same path as Don and might make hurricane Monday.

Waters on its path are warmer at depths much deeper than the Gulf.
Jim...
 

MitchM

.
Jan 20, 2005
1,011
Nauticat 321 pilothouse 32 Erie PA
then get ahold of john kretschmer's scary book about the 3 sailors who lost their lives , caught out in a late season hurricane lenny that no one predicted would do what it did and go where it went....
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
I also heard a reference to a storm "C" that seems to be crowd sourcing energy.
Very profound observation.:clap:

That Storm C looks wicked by satellite but there appears to be 3 smalls grouped together and "Crowded".:dancing:

That may be the saving grace. They are so closely packed that they may stay elongated without enough space to become energizing Cyclones. If not, this then one of the biggest storms in history.
______
Also Storm B with the current Jet Stream flows and High Pressures over Central USA suggest this could follow behind TD 9.:)

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
TS Harvey should not reach Hurricane status. It is passing over "de-energized waters" by the previous Storm Don.

Storm C is now broken up.

The HIGH pressures systems over USA, East Coast and Gulf are winning as deflection shields. The current African storms seem to be following 2017's "way south" trend over "de-energized waters".
_____
On a Great News note...
El Niño is not forecast to restart until after this season. Good news for West Coast too.
Jim..
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The HIGH pressure fronts won the fight!:kick:

TS Harvey is "gone with the winds":p

All of those storms above will not become cyclonic. End of this thread.:biggrin:
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Ghost of Harvey hung out in the Mountains of the Yucatan and waited to join with another westward storm. The HIGH pressure currently over the Gulf, mated them together.
Now a LOW pressure over Dallas will spin up a new combo storm and suck it into the Gulf...
Not sure how they will name it. Maybe...
1) TS Harvey II
2) Son of Harvey
3) Harvey of the Eclipse.
4) TS Oppss

Whatever, it will be full of rain and Slow moving NW, since there is a HIGH pressure over Denver that wall push back on it by Friday.
_____
Highest winds look to be landfalling in the Corpus Christi area with much rain along the LA-TX coast. Not much sailing there through Sunday.

They are removing manpower off the oil rigs south of Port Arthur , as per rules.

Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,040
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
How long does it take for a wave to leave Africa, if it develops into cyclonic activity, to reach the LI/NY area? I know there are so many variables, but it's a lot of distance. It must take two weeks or so. I'm asking because I'm throwing a birthday party for my wife September 9th. I'm not asking for permission or a good forecast. But if there isn't anything in the pipeline, can I relax a little?
 
Oct 1, 2007
1,856
Boston Whaler Super Sport Pt. Judith
How long does it take for a wave to leave Africa, if it develops into cyclonic activity, to reach the LI/NY area? I know there are so many variables, but it's a lot of distance. It must take two weeks or so. I'm asking because I'm throwing a birthday party for my wife September 9th. I'm not asking for permission or a good forecast. But if there isn't anything in the pipeline, can I relax a little?
This is about the best source I have found.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
How long does it take for a wave to leave Africa,
Let me tell you my "quick method" for Days.
1) Storms move due West from Africa at 10-15 mph [240-360 miles per day]
2) Rough distance to nearest land mass is 2500 miles [≈10-7 days]
_____
There is a nice, big storm near Cape Verde , this morning. Using my handy dandy Air mileage of 3483 miles to NY/LI [Great Circle milage] click, whirl, clank...... Opps if there is a target on your back... Sept 6 - Sept 8.

Never fear, I would be more of a "party crasher" than this storm. There are 2 High Pressure fronts to shield her BD party and the Jet Stream, near the party area, is pushing Due East now.

Tell her to look to the WEST of NY or from, Say Pennsylvania, on Sept 7 for a more likely stormy day.

@shemandr I am going wayyyy out on a limb now...
Looking at the West Coast today...
There is a HIGH pressure over Pacific that should bring fair weather for your Sept 9 birthday party. [they move West at about 10 mph]
Wish her a HAPPY BIRTHDAY from me.
Jim...

PS: My Admiral's Birthday is Sept 10. ;) Ahh you got to love Virgo's:plus:
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is about the best source I have found.
That link has about 90% of the Graphical Data I use.:clap::plus:
Mike has compiled a huge amount of weather data.

And a better link to a storm's HEAT potential fuel, than I have been using.
I tried to explain the Temperature Anomaly in my post#6 above. But here is the graphical presentation by NOAA.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

The "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Loop" is the key to the storm's fuel
VERSUS
The "Sea Surface Temperature Loop"

Jim..
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Wow this is WAY Cool to show the HEAT info. Click on the Word LOOP in those titles, because it auto Linked to the Heat and Temp time loops by NOAA.
Nice find for me...
Triple Likes to you @Rick486 :plus:
:plus::plus:
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
bring fair weather for your Sept 9 birthday party. [they move West at about 10 mph]
On my second cup of coffee They move...
EAST
Sorry...

See why the cyclonic spin counter clockwise? Near equator, storms move WEST, but in Northern Hemisphere, Storms start from Pacific North West and move EAST.;)

Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, they spin clockwise.
Jim...
 
Jan 1, 2006
7,040
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Thanks for the encouraging info. We have a tent - it's just we don't need a gale or worse. Virgo's are a special breed. Almost all the guests are sailors so the worst case is a party in our foulies eating wet lasagna.
 
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