• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Florence

Oct 19, 2017
7,733
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
It's funny, but Irene didn't do much damage in NH, just across the Connecticut River, but I saw some of those washed-out roads and rivers in Vermont. Terrifying.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 

Bob S

.
Sep 27, 2007
1,771
Beneteau 393 New Bedford, MA
t's funny, but Irene didn't do much damage in NH
Will, Loon Mtn just finished repairing the access bridge that was taken out by Irene! Not far from you:shhh:
Maybe someday but I was curious what this will do for those (All You Get) snowbirds that head south. Will it make a mess of the ICW?

Good luck, my prayers are with everyone in her path.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Will it make a mess of the ICW?
I would say with the storm surge and the rain there will be changes. Floating debris (flotsam) and that which may be thrown from a boat to save it (jetsam)
Flotsam and jetsam are terms that describe two types of marine debris associated with vessels. Flotsam is defined as debris in the water that was not deliberately thrown overboard, often as a result from a shipwreck or accident. Jetsam describes debris that was deliberately thrown overboard by a crew of a ship in distress, most often to lighten the ship's load. The word flotsam derives from the French word floter, to float. Jetsam is a shortened word for jettison.

Under maritime law the distinction is important. Flotsam may be claimed by the original owner, whereas jetsam may be claimed as property of whoever discovers it. If the jetsam is valuable, the discoverer may collect proceeds received though the sale of the salvaged objects.
In addition these events usually change the stream and estuary basins that allow you to navigate down the ICW. Think new shoals to discover. In a river like the Mississippi such high volume flows create and rip apart the banks creating and destroying oxbow ponds and river bends.

It is a safe bet there will be new places to discover and avoid on your next trip up/down the ICW.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Low Pressure remnant of Florence will move back into the Atlantic on Sept 19th.
It appears be regaining its tropical spin at that time.

Several models show it actually splitting into 2 low pressure cells.:doh:

Bermuda may get a split/secondary LOW, not a large one, but significant.
Don't be surprise if the News Cycle picks up this LOW, since it may turn back north along the East Coast.

Dammit Jim...
 
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Kermit

.
Jul 31, 2010
5,657
AquaCat 12.5 17342 Wateree Lake, SC
We got more rain last night from the Storm Formerly Known as Florence with her now hundreds of miles away than we did when she was right smack dab on top of us. Weird stuff going on.
 

Gunni

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Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
We got more rain last night from the Storm Formerly Known as Florence with her now hundreds of miles away than we did when she was right smack dab on top of us. Weird stuff going on.
You got weather sliding down the trough low-pressure from the storm. Effectively how a nor’easter behaves off-shore, in this case it came back down the appalachians.
 
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Jan 1, 2006
7,040
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
We have the SFKAF sliding down the island now.
I think it was Ivan that got back in the Atlantic , reformed and smacked Florida and then the Gulf Coast a second time. Crazy Ivan.
 
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Gunni

.
Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
The death and destruction on Grenada was unbelievable. First hurricane in like 50 years. All those folks hunkered down thought they were out of the hurricane zone. ...then the following year it happened again with Carriacou, Grenada. Stay safe down there in Trinidad Capta! We’re still reasoning with hurricane season.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It is now being NOAA weather noted that remnants of Florence has split into THREE new Low pressure cyclonic disturbances.

Since these cyclonic LOWs are Solar Energy fueled engines, imagine the amount of Atlantic stored energy being sucked up by Florence for its entire time.

Florence's major destruction was that Energy dropping in form of rain and flooding.

All of that rain will cool off the East Coast and Atlantic significantly.
_______
IMHO Florence and its spinoffs will be the most Global weather disturbance in modern history.

This is why the Saffir-Simpson Categorize Storms will never project proper storm impacts.
Jim...
 
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Jan 1, 2006
7,040
Slickcraft 26 Sailfish
Not that I know anything but it’s obvious that the Saffir - Simpson rating is woefully inadequate to predict a hurricane’s destructive power. It’s not even very good for the public to make decisions regarding preparation or evacuation.
 
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Nov 6, 2006
9,885
Hunter 34 Mandeville Louisiana
It is fine for the initial landfall and immediate local vicinity.. Where all the rainwater goes after it is ashore a while is a whole different story.. Florence's floods were well predicted before it came ashore because of the model's predictions of very slow movement and the tremendous water carrying ability coupled with the hilly terrain that it affected..
 
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Gunni

.
Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
As the good people of the low country learned once again, wind is not the only thing about a hurricane that can get you killed. The old timers know well that the worst case is to have a hurricane get into the shallow sounds and rivers behind the barrier islands where it can become a surge pump into the Carolina low country. This was another massive storm, 250 miles across, it had the capacity to roost on the coastline and put a massive surge of ocean water into the entire drainage across multiple tidal highs...while it dumped 3 feet of rainwater 100 miles up drainage.

This is what Isabel, Fran, Floyd did to the area. Once again we see North Carolina turn the Pamlico Sound into an open sewer of ag manure. Good bye fall shrimping season, goodbye shellfish industry, goodbye tourism, hello ruined uninsured homes and business.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Good bye fall shrimping season, goodbye shellfish industry, goodbye tourism, hello ruined uninsured homes and business.
All thought the same after Katrina in most Gulf fish producing states. Add to that even the BP oil spill.
Guess what?

The reverse happened! It was a big time sea food revival!
Why?
Food from the land washed into the Gulf causing a sea food bloom! The biggest impact was the Nutrient, Fe or Iron.
The aquatic food chain needs IRON. They need it for breeding, breathing and bleeding.
Fish are rarely caught in non-coastal waters or in Center of the Gulf. Iron concentration is the reason why.

Plus there was a fishing and fuel tax exemption for 2-3 years to help the fishermen recovery quickly.
Uninsured home owners got Grant money to rebuild or reconstruct.
Business got SBA money and Katrina tax exemptions to rebuild.
A friend of mine who was FEMA trained from Harvey, just left for South Carolina to do storm damage appraisals.
_____
The crippled Gulf coast worked hard and together to build back better than before.
Marina's were rebuilt along the Gulf Coast.
____
It is alway a sad thing to lose personal possessions, like family photos and mementos.
But the human spirt and drive to return to some sense of normalcy is amazing stuff.

Anecdote: It was 2 weeks after Katrina, when the first Burger Place reopened. There was a resounding cheer when we ate a good old American Hamburger. Best tasting one in my life time!!! My house power didn't return for 28 days. My business building and warehouse disappeared by the wrath of Katrina.

Keep the faith...

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
IMHO Florence and its spinoffs will be the most Global weather disturbance in modern history.
This is the current temperature anomaly or the difference in historical surface temps and now.
FlorEnergySuck.png

The Red Oval is where Florence sat and waited for days.

Then the slow movement to the Carolinas[ faint dashed red line]
Basically the Blue area was cooled by water evaporation, that Loaded up Florence.
Then all of that water was dumped on the East Coast.
Amazingly Huge amount of Solar Energy removed from the Atlantic.

Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Amazingly Huge amount of Solar Energy removed from the Atlantic.
This is Florence from Space
5b993fb31982d889308b5066-12001.jpg

Note the ever increasing cloud height nearing the eye.
Atlantic Ocean moisture eventually dumped on East USA.
Jim...