• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Hurricane Florence

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
interested in your take/expertise on this
Sunday 8th will tell, but the wind field is on the North side. I will do my predicting in a PM to YOU, if you want my best shot tomorrow morning.

I let the real experts NOAA, do the work on warning.

Dammit Jim...

PS:Another Localized tip is to watch the offices of City Mayors and Police. They will be warned early, probably now on alert.
 
May 23, 2016
1,024
Catalina 22 #12502 BSC
Sunday 8th will tell, but the wind field is on the North side. I will do my predicting in a PM to YOU, if you want my best shot tomorrow morning.

I let the real experts NOAA, do the work on warning.

Dammit Jim...

PS:Another Localized tip is to watch the offices of City Mayors and Police. They will be warned early, probably now on alert.
DJ....yea, we watch all those LE folks of course....when they declare our specific counties evac, we evac...
same goes for the club, anyone <27' pull out, larger craft anchor out....don't wanna screw up slips/docks, cause damage to property, let alone boats... will watch for your PM in the AM...appreciate your weather expertise!
 
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Aug 22, 2017
1,609
Hunter 26.5 West Palm Beach
Things have certainly gotten active. There are now 3 named storms currently headed generally towards the eastern US coast.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Thank You James G for starting this thread. It got me looking at things that I needed to look at, but wasn't looking at.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This the last Hurricane Hunter Flight, probably Until Dawn over Florence.
recon_NOAA9-0106A-FLORENCE_dropsondes.png

Each of those numbers are the Dropsonde position on that flight.
I thought this was more interesting on their flight route.
They appear to be defining that "point of interest" shown by NOAA 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9.
They circled Florence.
The Dropsonde data doesn't show a lot other than their flight altitude data (12390 Meters)
Showed -54.7 C° and no Relative humidity and 27.8 C° & 70% RH at the surface. Point #14

Dammit Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The HH are in Florence now. I will wait until they are finished in about 2 hours.

But a few observations...
1) Points 6,7 and 8 are another LOW pressure[above].
2) Old TS Gordon is around Louisville KY and moving toward Cincinnati OH and is a LOW.:doh:
3) The Models are bending northwards, probably from 1) and 2).
4) The HIGHs over central USA are combining.

Dammit Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
1,2,3,4 mean?
Those are the points that the Hurricane Hunters dropped a weather buoy call Dropsonde. It falls from high land based altitudes and measures various weather data at certain Atmospheric pressure points as it falls.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
This is Dropsonde data on their flight NOW. It was dropped about 60 nm north of the eye. This is where the winds seem highest, so far.
recon_NOAA2-WB06A-FLORENCE_dropsonde11_20180909-1509.png

There is a key model point of "Level" at 850 mb that is intensification guidance. Table 1. Mandatory...
hectoPascals = hPa= millbars=mb... Normal sea level barometric pressures ≈1000 mb.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
How to read the "Wind Symbols"
windsymb2-58b7401b5f9b5880804c9f35.gif

I like to think of them as Arrows and the wind speed lines as the Feathers, then the "Arrows" tips show the Direction.
So when that Dropsonde table reports "E at 58 knots" it means FROM the East.
Jim...
 
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Gunni

.
Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
I am getting a REAL bad feeling about H.Florence. That is some seriously warm water it will be crossing before landfall. If you didn’t live on the SE coast during H.Hugo, look it up. It flattened Charlotte, NC, after re-sculpting Charleston, SC. ...and generated hurricane force conditions onto the Blue Ridge! Florence will almost certainly punch into the south and curl north into an area that is already WAY saturated. Soggy soils and high winds. Prepare for power to be out for days, maybe weeks in the more rural areas of North Carolina, Virginia.
 
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Oct 22, 2014
20,995
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
With out this data it is difficult to think about the conditions being faced ore concerned about when I look out on a beautiful clear morning here in the Pacific NW.
You guys prepare and secure your boats. Ms Florence looks to be making a visit this week. And she will not be a lady tonight.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Florence is strengthening and will soon have a satellite visible eye. This was a low level Hurricane Hunter flight just finished at ≈2400 meters true altitude.
recon_NOAA2-WB06A-FLORENCE.png


Purple Wind Arrows are not good.
The NOAA models are bending northward.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06_ens.gif

National Hurricane Center is Red Circles... ECMF is Orange Triangle.
The HIGH I noted earlier is going NORTH of VA.

Dammit Jim...
 
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Oct 1, 2007
1,856
Boston Whaler Super Sport Pt. Judith
With out this data it is difficult to think about the conditions being faced ore concerned about when I look out on a beautiful clear morning here in the Pacific NW.
You guys prepare and secure your boats. Ms Florence looks to be making a visit this week. And she will not be a lady tonight.
Wow! Beautiful clear morning in the PNW! I'll bet you treasured that rare weather pattern :)
 
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Gunni

.
Mar 16, 2010
5,937
Beneteau 411 Oceanis Annapolis
Florence is WAY out in the Atlantic and yet it has already gone to Cat 4. Still over 48 hours from landfall (probably daybreak Thursday) somewhere south of Cape Hatteras. Since it still has to cross the very warm Gulf Stream it seems virtually certain it will strengthen to Cat 5 and bring 150 MPH winds ashore. By Thursday night it is predicted to have punched into central Virginia and be dropping 10" to 15" of rain. This will be a devastating hurricane. Anyone near the coast between Charleston and Virginia Beach should head for high ground and a solid shelter. Wait too long and you will ride it out in your car along with the other procrastinators.
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
There was at least 5 caravans [Groups of 8] of Power Line repair trucks on I-10 heading EAST just inside Mississippi, at 4:30pm today.
Those trucks were from TEXAS.:clap:
PowerTrucks.JPG


Various States power companies sending help.
Jim...
 

Kermit

.
Jul 31, 2010
5,657
AquaCat 12.5 17342 Wateree Lake, SC
Now it looks like we are in the path of something big. Just when I was regretting buying the extra case of water. And the window a/c unit.
 
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