Hurricane Florence

[JamesG161]

The first of the seasons West African Spinoff storms is now being INVESTigated and is expected to be a Hurricane in next 5 days.
It is expected to track into central Atlantic and not hit any land mass anytime soon.
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But...
There are several West African spinoffs coming soon.
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Also a small tropical potential wave is starting near the Bahama's and will move across Florida quickly into the Gulf probably ruining part of the Labor Day weekend for the Northern Gulf. Moving fast, which is good.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

This now forecast to be called FLORENCE in the next 48 hours.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Now a new name by NOAA.
Potential Tropical Cyclone = PTC

Now the question will start.
What is a Cyclone?
Is it meaner than a Storm?
How much Potential?

Oh well it will soon be named
Whatever "Florence"

High Pressures moving East across Central USA will protect the East Coast from PTC#6
Jim...

 

[Gene Neill]

Now a new name by NOAA.
Potential Tropical Cyclone = PTC

Now the question will start.
What is a Cyclone?
Is it meaner than a Storm?

And how long before they start throwing around the term "SUPER cyclone"??

 

[JamesG161]

the term "SUPER cyclone"??

Sound more like a new Comic Book Super Hero name....

Look out for SUPER CYLONE... fighting all climate change and providing good sailing for all.
Jim...

PS: NOAA has used that name for a North Pole Super Cyclone that was HUGE in diameter, about 2 years ago.

 

[JamesG161]

TS Florence may stall. She was trying to become an Atlantic Fish Storm.
The HIGH pressure front that was pushing the turn is now passing more Northerly and faster
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The next HIGH form the Pacific is starting to move across the US now.
Timing is every thing to push Florence out to Mid Atlantic.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

Timing is every thing to push Florence out to Mid Atlantic.

Hurricane Florence is on the move Westward, after the HIGH Pressure over the Atlantic moved East.
It will move into the LOW pressure trough, trailing behind.

Even though NOAA is tracking it, another Big HIGH pressure is going to change those models to push it toward the East Coast USA.
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Track FLORENCE closely!

Jim...

PS: Dont wait till next week to prepare.

 

[rpludwig]

dammit Jim!

 

[rpludwig]

Windy currently shows landfall Thursday @ Myrtle (Euro model), US model turns north....fwiw
https://www.windy.com/?2018-09-13-18,32.157,-76.641,7

 

[JamesG161]

Watch the north side High Pressure movement [East ≈ 12 mph] that is forcing Florence to turn West.
That timing is everything!
Also I will post the first Hurricane Hunter flight.
They will define the winds on the West Side of Florence.

Just like Gordon, that will be the key.
If you like spaghetti models, ECMF is the most verified accurate model.
Where Windy gets it information, NOAA.
–––––––

andfall Thursday @ Myrtle

That target forecast is not accurate at this time.
Look again on Sunday 9th.
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Alway better to prepare NOW, than when "Windy" shows landfall on the 13th.

I just prepared and watched Coastal Mississippi "hunker down" for Gordon. After Camille and Katrina, no coaxing needed.
Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

dammit Jim!

Yep that is my first name....

Dammit

Jim is my second name.

PS: I wrote down in my "Black Book" the names of those who "liked" @rpludwig post

 

[rpludwig]

good tip on the ECMF spaghetti's....don't like what I see (for us in the Carolinas), but premature, hopefully...

 

[JamesG161]

ECMF

Sometimes called ECMWF is a combined group model that has verifications to continually improve. 50 contributing models. Each models is assigned various aspects of a forecast tracking. It is a Global weather event group.
Here is the latest tracking models. Note ECMF orange triangles.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
Jim...

PS: After looking a various Florence info this morning. My best long term shot, which is admittedly weak, is TABD [Corrected]green triangles on that chart.

 

[rpludwig]

hmmm, I prefer the (unlikely) purple & orange squares!
guess it may be prudent to replace the broken trailer winch strap pronto!!

 

[Gunni]

Huh. The Euro model does show the track straightening out and coming ashore in the U.S. That wasn’t going on 24 hours ago. Need to start following this storm. Thanks Jim (Dammit).

 

[JamesG161]

The real key is to watch the Eastward Movement speed of the HIGH pressure Front North of Florence.
If it moves faster, Florence will follow the LOW trough behind it and curve kinda like @rpludwig desired AEMN purple squares.

If the High Pressure East speed, slows way down, then ECMF is the most likely path, NOW.
Look again Sunday 9th.

But do like Gunni, go get batteries, flashlights, etc NOW, before Wally World sells out.
Jim...

PS: When the Hurricane Hunters fly out to Florence, will be the Key NOAA indication.

 

[rpludwig]

dammit Jim, we need warp speed on that high pressure system, talk to Scottie...lookin' a might bit bleak....water, batteries selling well here...boat gets pulled out tomorrow...(prudent).

 

[JamesG161]

Hurricane Hunters fly out to Florence

This their first trip to Florence.

Fairly compact with NNW to NNE strong wind field.

Dammit Jim...

 

[JamesG161]

This is my graphic on the HIGH pressure race to affect Florence.

Timing of the HIGH over New Mexico for Florence and the Timing of the HIGH near El Paso TX for TD#9 [PTC#9]

Dammit Jim...

 

[rpludwig]

so, esp with those couple other hp systems on the march to the east, it will likely sustain it's westerly track, w/landfall 'tween Charleston & Wilmington? (albeit a bit early to predict this)...have kids in Wilmington prox....I'm in New Bern, 100 mi. north....interested in your take/expertise on this...(and lookin out for the kids, especially)...