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Hurricane Barry <TS Barry < PC2 < Invest 92L

Discussion in 'Weather and Forecasting' started by JamesG161, Jul 7, 2019. Add this thread to a FAQ

  1. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    By Wednesday July 10, it will be forming several hundred miles South of Panama City FL.
    But there is a HIGH pressure front to Whack it, and move it quickly toward LA & MS.

    As normal, the strongest winds are on the North East Quadrant.
    It will be probably named as a tropical storm before landfall on ≈ July 13
    Maybe wind gusts to 50mph.

    Gulf Coast sailors have time to prepare...
    Jim...
     


    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
  2. BigEasy

    BigEasy

    Joined Jun 21, 2004
    1,202 posts, 335 likes
    Beneteau 343
    US Slidell, LA
    Jim,
    Thanks for heads up. Hopefully this will be a non event that will negate the need for removing canvas.
    Actually, we could use some rain and relief from this awful heat & humidity.
    Will definitely keep an eye on it.
     


  3. kloudie1

    kloudie1

    Joined Nov 6, 2006
    8,368 posts, 781 likes
    Hunter 34
    US Mandeville Louisiana


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  4. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    There was another one about a week back, that ran alone the Texas coast, but never got attention.

    This year so far, it High Pressure pulsing from the Pacific Northwest prevents formations.
    5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
    Five Day forecast 10th-14th.
    Not animated but you see all the Highs flowing NW-SE. And the L get "whacked" on the 12th.
    Jim...
     


  5. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    Say what?:yikes::yikes: Then I looked.:pimp:
    two_atl_5d0-2.png
    Yep Nashville...:laugh:
     


  6. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    9,591 posts, 4,307 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    This what the projected storm looks like on Saturday.
    NewOrleans Storm.JPG
    Not a pretty sight. Looks like preparation for this storm would be advised unless the High Pressures that have maintained the nice weather come through and disrupt this one out in the gulf. With Gulf water temps at 86F 30C there is a bit of energy for this storm.
     


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  7. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    That has changed since I looked. Perhaps the storm will stall as it goes around that HIGH on Saturday 13th.

    If the Hurricanes Hunter fly out Thursday we well know for sure.
    Jim...

    PS: I guess disrupts my sail from Gulfport MS to the Keys:doh:
     


  8. jssailem

    jssailem

    Joined Oct 22, 2014
    9,591 posts, 4,307 likes
    CAL 35 Cruiser
    US Salem, Moored Port Everett WA
    Only if you want to live forever and not become a statistic that the CG will have to chase down and rescue..
    Hell you might make it. It might be a great ride. Might push you to Cuba.
     


  9. kloudie1

    kloudie1

    Joined Nov 6, 2006
    8,368 posts, 781 likes
    Hunter 34
    US Mandeville Louisiana
    Jim, looking at the Gulf Loop Current, as soon as the storm goes west, ya can make some tome going south!
     


  10. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    That pushes hot Caribbean Waters to Central Gulf, before the Northern shoreline pushes it back around the tip of Florida.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-75.38,28.43,1186

    The Hurricane intensifier and fuel is HEAT content more than Surface Temperatures.
    I look at this graphic , and to your point, very on point.
    .
    ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif
    Note the "hot spot" as the central spot on the Gulf Loop in the Gulf.
    Also note the wide white area along the coast as the Colder Mississippi River water dump has cooled down the Gulf Shore line, and even the Atlantic Coast gets in the Allegheny Mountains East from all the winter rains/snows.

    The Good News is...
    This Disturbance is fast moving, reducing its time to strengthen, and that High did "whack" it.

    The Bad News is...
    It appears to be skimming along the Coast on it Westward Trek. Normally the Low would make and "end run" and follow behind the High pressure front. [as shown on my post#4 Sat-Sun NOAA Graphic]
    Longer time in Gulf, more intensification possibility.
    ____
    Too early to predict, Thursday will tell the story.

    Still time to prepare along the Gulf Coast...
    Jim...
     


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  11. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    INVESTitgation 92L just kicked in for models to start tracking it.

    HIGH pressure is Whacking it.
    Some are saying it will be a summer time squall.

    Keep on with the preparations and keep your "weather eye" out....
    Jim..
     


  12. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    They are scheduled for a flight this afternoon.

    That means this non tropical storm needs real internal storm data and not just Satellite data.

    After their flight, we will know chances of intensification, and if the "spaghetti models" have any meaning.

    The Good news...
    Fast moving over cooler waters along the coast.
    Jim...

    PS: Non Tropical means it didn't form in the Tropics. Why important? Tropics Contain a lot of Heat.

    PSS: This disturbance actually started over Georgia, on land, on Monday.
     


    Last edited: Jul 10, 2019
  13. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS


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  14. BigEasy

    BigEasy

    Joined Jun 21, 2004
    1,202 posts, 335 likes
    Beneteau 343
    US Slidell, LA
    Jim,
    Tropical tidbits is a great resource; hadn’t seen it previously. Definitely provides in depth analysis. No sensationalizing; just the facts.
     


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  15. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    First Hurricane Hunter mission into PC#2
    recon_NOAA2-02BBA-PTC02.png
    No eye wall, not much wind, not a named storm, yet.
    Highest winds speeds on their flight path, at sea surface was at 12 knots.

    Look at their flight path [set by satellite info] and not the satellite cloud cover.
    Jim...

    PS: Look at the spaghetti model runs after 8 pm EST tonight for more reliable info.
     


  16. shemandr

    shemandr

    Joined Jan 1, 2006
    4,021 posts, 947 likes
    Marblehead Skiff 14'
    US Greenport, NY
    Jim what are the red numbers? Wind direction?
     


  17. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    No, the orange/red numbers are over the Yellow numbers. Yellow ones are official NOAA weather stations, buoys or official weather stations aboard ships at sea.
    I am really not sure about red ones.

    My guess is... elapsed time into the flight, that the last data from the Yellow stations reported into NOAA.
    Synchronization , so to speak.
    Jim...
     


  18. kloudie1

    kloudie1

    Joined Nov 6, 2006
    8,368 posts, 781 likes
    Hunter 34
    US Mandeville Louisiana
    Jim, looks like yall are in the clear except for high water.. I just got in from doubling lines and adding a couple of spring lines.. I don't think our marina on the north shore and up the bayou, will see a lot of wind, but probably looking at 4-5 feet of water over normal. Home in Baton Rouge, we'll probably see a lot of rain and some wind.
     


  19. BigEasy

    BigEasy

    Joined Jun 21, 2004
    1,202 posts, 335 likes
    Beneteau 343
    US Slidell, LA
    Haven't done anything special yet. Waiting to see forecast for winds and surge. I think that this is going to be primarily a rain event for us.
     


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  20. JamesG161

    JamesG161

    Joined Feb 14, 2014
    3,738 posts, 1,399 likes
    Hunter 430
    US Waveland, MS
    About red/orange numbers... was WRONG!:redface::redface:

    So I couldn't fine any seemingly similar weather readings.o_O
    So... for SBO users of the Graphics of HH Recon flights, I emailed the Source of it!

    TropicalTidbits.com

    The Provider of that website is "Levi Cowan".
    He graciously responded to my email with the answer on the orange numbers...

    "Hi James,

    Thanks for the compliment! The orange numbers are the pressure reading at each ground-based station in the same format that you would see it on a surface map. For example, "124" = 1012.4mb.

    Hope this helps,
    Levi"

    A short bio from Levi...
    "I have been tracking tropical cyclones closely since 2002, and am currently a graduate meteorology student at Florida State University."

    All I can add, is what I told him...
    "You [Levi] have the best scientific information and discussion available that I have found."

    Check out all of his great weather analysis!:clap::clap:
    Jim...



     


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