What could possibly go wrong?

DArcy

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Feb 11, 2017
1,703
Islander Freeport 36 Ottawa
If you have ever seen a ship crossing your path and hailed them on the VHF to let them know you are there, perhaps to inform them you will alter course to avoid collision, that may be a thing of the past in the not too distant future. Autonomous ships are on the horizon.
Wired magazine has an interesting article about a Dutch company pushing hard to remove human error from shipping by removing the humans, although I question the motivation.

Wegener runs through a list of pros of self-driving ships. He says autonomous ships will be much safer than their human-captained counterparts, citing an Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty report which found that 75 per cent of maritime accidents are currently due to human error. And they would reduce port congestion by eliminating lengthy processes that require humans, such as local pilots who guide container ships into busy harbours. “That’s the official version. The unofficial reason we started doing this is because we thought it would be cool, of course,” he adds.


Interestingly (or ironically), the Allianz report referenced for the human error rate for maritime accidents also mentions an over reliance on technology as contributing to accidents.

Technology is driving safety improvements but over-
reliance is a concern: Safety-enhancing technology is
already finding its way into shipping. This could bring huge
benefits, as it is estimated that 75% to 96% of marine
accidents can be attributed to human erroriv. Information
from voyage data recorders is already used in accident
investigation but important safety lessons could also be
learned by analyzing information from everyday
operations. Conversely, a number of incidents have

occurred where crews have relied too much on technology,
particularly involving electronic navigation tools.
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
Jan 11, 2014
11,401
Sabre 362 113 Fair Haven, NY
Conversely, a number of incidents have
occurred where crews have relied too much on technology,
particularly involving electronic navigation tools.
Team Vestas anyone?


The unspoken reason for autonomous ships, is the crew doesn't need to be fed. They can sit in a warm office on shore and go home at night.
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
May 17, 2004
5,071
Beneteau Oceanis 37 Havre de Grace
It’ll be interesting to see how this develops. I expect there to be some transition period where the ships still have a “safety driver” ready as a backup, the same way autonomous cars currently under development do.

I’m sure there will be technological fails along the way as the development happens, but I don’t think that’s a reason not to try. As for the Vestas incident - I’d put that more on human failure to properly understand and use the technology, and failure to develop an effective human machine interface, rather than the underlying technology. An adequately well developed autonomous steering system could have detected and avoided the shoals along the route, even if they weren’t visible on the map zoom level displayed to the user.
 

PaulK

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Dec 1, 2009
1,241
Sabre 402 Southport, CT
Might work fine for craft without people on them. If they hit something or each other, insurance companies cover the damage. Might not work so well for cruising boats that don’t show up on radar or plotting screens. Of course, they get hit now despite people on watch 24/7, so maybe no difference.
 
Apr 8, 2010
1,950
Ericson Yachts Olson 34 28400 Portland OR
Interesting (and a bit worrisome) to see this change coming. This basic idea was discussed by some professional mariners on the old YachtList, at least 15 years ago. I recall a virtual shudder running thru that group. :(

Back then, there was discussion about how the shipping company would (presumably) easily transfer crew aboard to do final guidance and docking and subsequent unloading.

Since it's a (liability-driven) policy for Pilots to not touch the helm except in dire emergency, the ship owner still has to take care of that responsibility.
I would hazard a guess that modern sat. weather routing, coupled with the ship's autopilot, is also making this look like a good idea, too.

The 'wild card' is what to do when any vital system on board quits or malfunctions and the only way to repair it is to airlift crew and technicians - very expensively - to it's location.
 

DArcy

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Feb 11, 2017
1,703
Islander Freeport 36 Ottawa
There are probably many situations where well designed automated systems will reduce accidents. Unfortunately a lot of accidents originate from inattention which computers don't suffer from. It will be a long time before the systems are robust enough to cover the more extreme cases such as severe storms or equipment malfunctions. A captain with strong emotional fortitude and sufficient training would be hard to beat with a digital system when the feces starts flying.
And what about equipment maintenance? A lot of maintenance is carried out by crew while under way. Would you want to be a maintenance crew on an early adopter ship with autonomous control?
 

DArcy

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Feb 11, 2017
1,703
Islander Freeport 36 Ottawa
Back then, there was discussion about how the shipping company would (presumably) easily transfer crew aboard to do final guidance and docking and subsequent unloading.
The interesting point in this article is they want to start by getting rid of pilots and automating the harbour entry and docking.
 
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Likes: Will Gilmore
Oct 19, 2017
7,745
O'Day 19 Littleton, NH
I can see this technological advancement ending with more restrictions and regulations regarding where recreational sailors can go and how they can go there.

'No craft shall operate in or around an established commercial seaway without an active AIS or equivalent.' 'No private vessel shall enter a commercial port using active commercially marked channels.' And so on. Safety through greater restrictions.
It won't really be that onerous and it will all make perfect sense, but it is still going to be more expensive and a small loss of freedom for the individual.

-Will (Dragonfly)
 

PaulK

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Dec 1, 2009
1,241
Sabre 402 Southport, CT
A lot of maintenance is carried out by crew while under way. Would you want to be a maintenance crew on an early adopter ship with autonomous control?
So if there’s no crew, maintenance will be deferred. What could go wrong with that? Or the maintenance crew will be exactly that - paint chippers, incapable of running the ship.