Sub Tropical Storm Ernesto

[JamesG161]

This NON-tropical storm is located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

It is going to track in the North Atlantic Cooler water toward England. It is not expected to strengthen much.

This is a Satellite detected storm, as far as wind speeds of 40 mph, to get a name.
Jim...

PS: geezzzzz NHC must be bored this year.

 

[JamesG161]

Perhaps more note worthy excitement...

There have been: (M1.5 or greater)

• 231 earthquakes in the past 24 hours
• 1,167 earthquakes in the past 7 days
• 15,139 earthquakes in the past 30 days
• 82,008 earthquakes in the past 365 days

talk about "on shaky grounds"
Jim...

 

[justsomeguy]

NHC must be bored this year.

That's a good thing.

 

[Will Gilmore]

They once use to point to the fact that there was a large, recent increase in the number of 'names' storms as evidence of concerning abnormal global weather change until someone pointed out that the increase was actually due to the fact that they started to name tropical depressions as well as hurricanes.
Statistics, the tool for both sides of an issue.

You know they once believed smoking actually prevented dementia because a statistical study demonstrated the there are significantly less smokers among dementia patients than in the general population. Then someone took note of the disparity in average ages between the two groups. As it turns out, smoking does prevent dementia by killing you before you can develop it.

- Will (Dragonfly)

 

[SFS]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

[shemandr]

They once use to point to the fact that there was a large, recent increase in the number of 'names' storms as evidence of concerning abnormal global weather change until someone pointed out that the increase was actually due to the fact that they started to name tropical depressions as well as hurricanes.
Statistics, the tool for both sides of an issue.

You know they once believed smoking actually prevented dementia because a statistical study demonstrated the there are significantly less smokers among dementia patients than in the general population. Then someone took note of the disparity in average ages between the two groups. As it turns out, smoking does prevent dementia by killing you before you can develop it.

- Will (Dragonfly)

Good post, Will. This is why I am a skeptic. I have been BS'ed so many times that I have developed the ability or at least a technique to look twice at language. "What does that really mean?" The best lies are about what is not said instead of what's said. As you say, "...both sides..." Truth when it can be found is a beautiful thing. Maybe that's one attraction to the natural world and sailing. Nature doesn't do BS. And you can't BS nature.

 

[JamesG161]

And you can't BS nature.

That is the main reason I do these Storm posts!!
I try my best to cut the news cycle's BS.
I do stick my neck out for sure and the reason I post it in this particular forum.
I will push back, gently, against BS, here.
I look at real data, and even double check that.

@jssailem and I have PM's that we even double check each other before I post storm info.

But...
Most predictive MODELS have some statistics involved.

What I dislike about those MODELS, they try to use previous years storm's paths.

What good meteorologist use are a 20-25 year ago, statistical weather patterns, which do appear to correlate.

This is why the term "climate change" is a misnomer, since we can't hardly remember 5 years ago.

Climate Change since When?

Anything less than 20-25 years ago comparison is pure BS.

Weather rant done..
Jim...

 

[Will Gilmore]

What I dislike about those MODELS, they try to use previous years storm's paths.

What good meteorologist use are a 20-25 year ago, statistical weather patterns, which do appear to correlate.

I took "Weather" as a lab science elective. The professor noted that if you took the statistics-based "guess" to predict next week's weather, you would be as accurate as the science based models are. That is to say, we (the meteorology community) are not very good at predicting the weather more than 3-4 days out. He also admitted that he had a friend from his university days who could look at the same data he looked at and make a prediction that was more likely accurate than his own predictions would be. My professor said he could never understand what his buddy read in the data that he could not. Weather forecasting is still an art as much as a science.

What I learned and can remember is that lenticular clouds look like alien spaceships and form over mountains.

- Will (Dragonfly)

 

[JamesG161]

It is going to track in the North Atlantic Cooler water toward England.

Sub Tropical Ernesto is still organized, but very weak.

It is affecting the British Isles today and will die quickly.
Jim...