• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Snow falling on Cedars

Oct 22, 2014
21,166
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
The local radio station just started playing… “I’m dreaming of a white St Patrick’s day… with all the corned beef that I roast…."

March... the time when my thought of getting on the water again creep's into my head.
Only El Niño seems to be saying "Not yet for you Señor!"

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"Snow keeps falling on my head.."

Yes March in the PacificNW is looking like a Lion. Fortunately the long range forecast is looking favorable. After a stretch of maybe 10-15 days we could be seeing the beginning of spring. Warmer temps (not yet warm enough for bottom painting) at least in the mid 40's as a pacific High warm ridge starts to form around St Patricks day.

Here is the March forecast from my friend Rufus.

Friday March First

That’s right, March is coming in like a Lion - a COLD Lion. Our long-range outlook does show promise of a warmer, drier run of a few days, but in the meantime, What You See Is What You Get. Best to get your Mug refilled.

Snow and rain/snow mixed is the type of precip ahead for the next few days. Many ‘sea level’ location Patrons have reported sticking snow at times (remember, our general forecasts cover southern BC down to northern CA). It melts fast, as the ground is relatively warm. Afternoon temps will chill down another few degrees this weekend, as the ‘core’ of that cold air mass driving the current on/off showers moves overhead. One only need to move up in elevation a few hundred feet to get ALL SNOW. Accumulations above 1,000 ft are already impressive, and will continue to build through Monday evening, Mar 4. Thus, expect plenty of precip through the weekend and Monday.

We do see a ‘window' of DRY this coming Tue & Wed Mar 5,6 around the PNW, as most of the storm action targets California. Two days with chilly temps, but at least we may stop the rain/snow for bit. Frosty, if the sky clears. By Thu Mar 7, the cold, wet pattern returns - a repeat, if you will - with more cold air pooled in a large trough (Low pressure) over the Gulf of Alaska/eastern Pacific. Next weekend, Mar 9,10, is trending to mirror the current one, so don’t expect Spring to arrive just yet. Chilly, with on/off rain or snow/rain showers, and snow above 500-1,000 ft.

The wet pattern continues to start the week of Mar 11-15. Temps will slowly notch up a few degrees as the week progresses. Wet Mon, Tue, most of Wed. Good news, though. Model runs suggest a relatively WARM ridge of High pressure building over the west coast beginning Thu Mar 14. The dry, mild period could last past the Ides of March (Fri the 15th) on into St Patty’s Day weekend. Temps could tease the 60s, esp along the coast. Let’s hope this break in the wet weather arrives, as the entire west coast will absolutely NEED to dry out. The snowpack along all the west coast mountain ranges will be exceptional.

“The height of efficiency is reached in a calm and confident spirit."

-Rufus
 
Oct 22, 2014
21,166
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
For our NE brethren, there are a 2 High Pressure cells in the Atlantic that are going to try and tease you for the next 5-6 days. The High just moving off the coast will try and pump some of that warm moist tropical air onshore.
Pick your days to play. March can be such a fickle month. One day 60'sº then 35º clear nights.
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Nov 21, 2007
633
Beneteau Oceanis 34 Kingston, WA
Love the title!

As long as the snow is finally falling, I might as well stay where I can do something with it while it lasts. Who wants to do early spring yard work in the snow anyway?

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