• Sailing is all about the Weather.

    Big into the exploration of Atlantic Hurricanes since Katrina came uninvited into his world, James (Jim) Gurley (JamesG161) has followed every Tropical Storm birthed in Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters since. Being a boater, he knows that we often need more time to prepare than we get from the TV weather folk. Jim relies on the science of storm development to share early warning info with friends and fellow boaters.

    Early in 2018, Jim and John Shepard, (JSSailem) started to chat about the weather data available. John asked Jim to help forecast Pacific NW storms, and this morphed into discussions on weather forecasting.

    For John, sailing in the PNW is sometimes hit and miss. One day is ugly, then a string of beautiful days but no wind, followed by a series of blue-sky days and 12 knot breezes. Being ready for those great sailing days means you need to look to the Pacific Ocean and what is brewing. John has been into Pacific NW Weather since the 1970’s when his first PNW November storm hit bringing more than 40 days and 40 nights of continual rain.

    Together we want to share information, new APPs, safety, and thoughts about letting the weather help you. Identify some of the resources for sailors and help prepare you for your next sailboat outing.

    It is far better to go out on the water knowing what to expect in weather terms, than to be out on the water and see dark ominous clouds suddenly appear, unprepared.

Pacific NW Cruising weather Fall is here.

jssailem

jssailem

.
Oct 22, 2014
21,166
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
Well here it is. Halloween time. For many this marks the end of the cruising season and time to put the boat to bed for winter. Maybe your already thinking about winter skiing or escaping to the tropics to get away from the lack of sun as the winter grey descends on the Salish Sea.

I was reminded of the sailor meme..
Red sky at night Sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning Sailor’s take warning.
Sipping my cup of coffee… the morning sky told the coming story…
1698763681990.jpeg

The change this last spring in the ENSO currents bringing El Niño to life returns our stream of welcome to FALL weather pattern. The North Pacific is full of 3 Low Pressure cells. They all will approach our west coast from the SW. This is often named the Pineapple Express as the cells spin in from the Ocean north of the Hawaiian Islands.
IMG_0064.jpeg

I am expecting a series of storms to visit over then next 10 days. Take advantage of today to get your gutters clean, any last minute chores or boat work, and pass out candy.

Then it will be time to get that rain slicker out, warm up your mud boots and prepare for the grey skies, occasional fog and DAMP days of November 2023.
 
jssailem

jssailem

.
Oct 22, 2014
21,166
CAL 35 Cruiser #21 moored EVERETT WA
No not yet Kappy. I have been at home prepping the house for the coming winter rains.

I just heard from my buddy Rufus.. He has been recovering from a medical challenge. His forecast for the Pacific NW dovetails on my earlier observations.

From the weather desk of Rufus:
Halloween 2023 will be a chilly, 'dry costume' end to October. The drenching rains of November will begin on Wed Nov 1. The precip may hold off until nightfall in some areas, the afternoon in others, either way, models indicate the potential for multiple inches of rain from coast to Cascades across the entire PNW. WINDY, too. But wait, there’s more.​

A short break in the rain is possible on Fri the 3rd, before another wet period from Sat through Tue, Nov 4-7. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler in that period. Right now, Wed & the front portion of Thu (Nov 8,9) next week are trending dry. Then, WHAM, another super-wet strike from the Pacific. Should models verify (!), the amount of moderate-to-heavy rainfall across the entire PNW from overnight Thu the 7th through Monday Nov 13th could be unrelenting!! WINDY, too. We can only hope that long-range models are incorrect, as the event could be a 'mirror image' of the serious impact-flooding experienced in Nov 2006. What will help minimize the excessive flow of water down the slopes and across the valleys is that freezing levels should drop low enough to ’trap’ mountain precip as snow, mid-weekend Nov 11,12. The snow could begin falling as low at the coast range by Mon Nov 13. Good.​
​
It will NOT dry out the week of Nov 13-17, it will simply turn colder, with low snow levels. A warmer, more westerly flow is possible by the weekend of Nov 18,19. However, should a ridge of High pressure push north over the Gulf of Alaska, we could be in for a notable COLD SNAP. Stay tuned.​
​
Bottom line: a news-making amount of water is about to fall. The possibility for 5”-13” of precip across the entire region in the first 2 weeks of November could be epic. Low snow levels are a must to mitigate flood issues, of which there will be. Fallen leaves will plug storm drains - help out by safely by raking away, if you can. The typical flood-zones will be impacted. Prepare now. As you know, our intent is not to sensationalize, but to have you prepared, just in case.​
Halloween 2023 will be a chilly, 'dry costume' end to October. The drenching rains of November will begin on Wed Nov 1. The precip may hold off until nightfall in some areas, the afternoon in others, either way, models indicate the potential for multiple inches of rain from coast to Cascades across the entire PNW. WINDY, too. But wait, there’s more.​
​
A short break in the rain is possible on Fri the 3rd, before another wet period from Sat through Tue, Nov 4-7. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler in that period. Right now, Wed & the front portion of Thu (Nov 8,9) next week are trending dry. Then, WHAM, another super-wet strike from the Pacific. Should models verify (!), the amount of moderate-to-heavy rainfall across the entire PNW from overnight Thu the 7th through Monday Nov 13th could be unrelenting!! WINDY, too. We can only hope that long-range models are incorrect, as the event could be a 'mirror image' of the serious impact-flooding experienced in Nov 2006. What will help minimize the excessive flow of water down the slopes and across the valleys is that freezing levels should drop low enough to ’trap’ mountain precip as snow, mid-weekend Nov 11,12. The snow could begin falling as low at the coast range by Mon Nov 13. Good.​
​
It will NOT dry out the week of Nov 13-17, it will simply turn colder, with low snow levels. A warmer, more westerly flow is possible by the weekend of Nov 18,19. However, should a ridge of High pressure push north over the Gulf of Alaska, we could be in for a notable COLD SNAP. Stay tuned.​
​
Bottom line: a news-making amount of water is about to fall. The possibility for 5”-13” of precip across the entire region in the first 2 weeks of November could be epic. Low snow levels are a must to mitigate flood issues, of which there will be. Fallen leaves will plug storm drains - help out by safely by raking away, if you can. The typical flood-zones will be impacted. Prepare now. As you know, our intent is not to sensationalize, but to have you prepared, just in case.​
 
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