Invest 97L

Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The newest tropical wave off Africa is moving rapidly West, a bit south of the previous 2016 waves. The Hurricane Hunters are investigating today. All of the computer models are forecasting a NNW turn by Friday the 30th.
The reason for the abrupt turn are 3 , back to back, High Pressure fronts from the Pacific. The first is over NM & TX now (which way south of normal and good for Gulf protection).
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This very rare path and promises to bring rain to the ABC islands which are "dessert" islands, if it doesn't turn quickly.
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In about a week, 97L should be more predicable for a USA strike along the East Coast or not.
Jim...
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
The Hurricane Hunters found no circulation in 97L, but they expect 97L to be Tropical Depression Matthew soon.
It is still tracking south of this years African tropical waves.
I think this is the 3rd storm to affect our SBO friend @capta who I believe is in the Lesser Antilles. Hope he is weathering them all in safety.
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The High Pressure system that is predicted to turn 97L to the North is now over Texas & Mexico.
Jim...
 
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capta

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Jun 4, 2009
4,766
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
The Hurricane Hunters found no circulation in 97L, but they expect 97L to be Tropical Depression Matthew soon.
It is still tracking south of this years African tropical waves.
I think this is the 3rd storm to affect our SBO friend @capta who I believe is in the Lesser Antilles. Hope he is weathering them all in safety.
______
The High Pressure system that is predicted to turn 97L to the North is now over Texas & Mexico.
Jim...
Thanks for the good thoughts, but this one also seems to be a dud. Originally expecting winds between 60 and 75 knots in the gusts we took a slip in the Rodney Bay Marina, but so far the max we've had has been 28.1. We'll know by midnight, but the more north it tracks, the easier we will have it. Interestingly, the closer to the eye we get on this one, the less wind we expect.
As we have a charter beginning on Monday in Bequia, we would have much preferred to be in Grenada, but that place is so overcrowded with boats that there just wouldn't have been a safe anchorage anywhere, had this been a storm of consequence. For those of you still believing in the myth of finding a safe "hurricane hole" it is time to put that thought out of your mind. If you are sailing a well found vessel, your boat might be safer at sea than in any "hurricane hole" in the Caribbean today.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
your boat might be safer at sea
Ask the boat owners that put their boats "on the hard" and double up lines in a marina during Hurricane Katrina.
The survivors were at sea or in a river. Even the river survivors were dodging moored boats that broke free.

I like to think of it as a "cork" floating on water versus that cork being anchored down.
Jim...
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Now that Invest 97L is Hurricane Matthew, the standard news outlets will take over.
I will give a bold forecast of no direct East Coast strike, but this is first MAJOR hurricane of 2016 and needs watching.:yikes:
The High Pressure cell now over the Gulf plus jet stream flow is why the models predict a turn toward Cuba.

The Caribbean islands and Bahamas will take the brunt and 2 more High Pressure cells, back to back, is what should push Matthew out to Mid Atlantic death in about a week, but Hermine didn't turn as fast as predicted and hugged the East Coast.
Jim...

PS: The good news about this summer's heat: Normally caused by slow High Pressure Cells which are tropical storm barriers.
 
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Jun 4, 2009
4,766
Pearson 530 Admiralty Bay, Bequia SVG
Before anybody becomes too complacent when hearing a storm forecast that assures them of a near miss, please consider a little bit I have made up about tropical cyclonic storms. "The only certain thing about tropical cyclonic storms is their uncertainty."
Example; Sitting in Bundaberg OZ with an impending storm, I listened to all kinds of reasons why I shouldn't worry. "There's never been a storm hit Bundaberg." "Can't happen here, Frazer Island sets up a high pressure ridge that Cyclones can't penetrate" and best of all, "We're 11 miles inland, cyclones can't go over land."
6AM and the radio tower was down, so warnings were impossible for the population. Something like 60% of the homes lost their roofs in the first hour. We actually had 3 storms come over us or come close in the next 8 days. Winds did not drop below 65 knots, just clocked around and went back up to hurricane force. Bundaberg River rose 30 feet and every manner of creature that lived in the cane fields for the Bundaberg rum distillery were in the river trying to crawl up on the boat. ugh!
 
May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
The major weather services are still indicating there is uncertainty about how far West the storm is going to push before it makes the anticipated turn to the North and that would be critical whether it affects the US mainland or not. The center of the cone of probability has it going across Eastern Cuba into the Bahamas but more important than being accurate the Hurricane Center's mission is to protect lives and property and they will continue to extend the cone close to South Florida for as long as there is a chance it may have some impact there. It has been reported that a few years ago some of the top echelon of AccuWeather funded the then Senator Rick Santorum to propose legislation prohibiting the Government from providing weather forecasts and advisories directly to the public. The goal was basically to wipe out the competition of the free broadcast of weather news. As a kicker the legislation intended NOOA (funded by tax payers) to continue to gather the weather data as it is a huge endeavor and too costly for the private services. It's a good thing the aircraft pilots associations, mariners associations and the general public put a stop to it. The mission of our weather service is different than that of for profit corporations. Would hate to have some corporation decide to start taking chances on cutting broadcast budgets or giving preference to a type of forecast that would favor their corporate goals instead of the safety of the public. That is how I came to hear about Mr. Santorum as a national political figure.
 
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Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
It is almost impossible to go totally private since we have multinational weather linking now and we depend on the Feds to use our taxpayer weather satellites. Major event forecasting, like Matthew, is well known in advance (4 days) plus they go into water temperatures, tides and currents. The military weather info is beyond comprehension to the general public weather man or your iPhone apps. This info is passed to various governmental emergency groups.

Jamaica is now under hurricane ALERT, they were told yesterday. Very bad hit is predicted.

I don't make a forecast to the general public, only close friends who know I don't kid around.
this is first MAJOR hurricane of 2016 and needs watching.:yikes:
In other words WATCH and PREPARE.

There are other ancillary effects, such as, ripe tides, storm surges, micro bursts, tornados, wind guest, etc.
Matthew intensified faster than models predicted and has the weather community puzzled. By Monday they will know about the USA direct hit probability. The storm is going to move Northward but how far to the East is not clear since Matthew will be ripped as it crosses Jamaica and other mountainous islands.

Remember a Hurricane is NOT a dot on the map but a beast that is about 150 miles in diameter.
Thus the precautions taken.
Jim...
 
Jan 6, 2010
1,520
Sorry, I'm here abit late but,

I always check the NOAA Hurricane site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
As an additive, I came across someone 6 years ago. His name is Peter Ray.
During this period, his predictions have been pretty right on.
And at times, more accurate than NOAA: http://www.hurricanehunt.com/

NOAA has done away with the spaghetti lines favoring a cone. This is good,
as folks tend to believe the lines & may not worry enough beforehand if
Mother Nature decides not to follow the Universities' tracking computer programs.

Living in Florida yea, here we need to keep an eye on the sky. Now, we have two more maybe heading our way. Check him out, he lives in Florida so for him, storms are more personal.

For the record, I feel bad for the people in Haiti.

CR
 
Feb 14, 2014
7,400
Hunter 430 Waveland, MS
Matthew had a 3 day delay in making the turn northward. This delay allowed the High Pressure Front to win the race to the East Coast. Only a small High Pressure now over KY, might help to make it move more East, but it is now being sucked behind that old High Pressure.

So my 14 day bold forecast, noted below, sucked wind.
We can only hope it weakens, moves quicker and doesn't hover along the coast.

Now that Invest 97L is Hurricane Matthew, the standard news outlets will take over.
I will give a bold forecast of no direct East Coast strike, but this is first MAJOR hurricane of 2016 and needs watching.:yikes:
The High Pressure cell now over the Gulf plus jet stream flow is why the models predict a turn toward Cuba.
:redface::frown:

Prepare....
Jim...
 
May 24, 2004
7,129
CC 30 South Florida
Well the latest advisories keep moving the projected track to the West closer to the East Coast of the US where evacuations from coastal areas are being triggered in some States. Here in Florida we have seen and are quite familiar with Hurricanes making late unanticipated turns. This storm is huge and very powerful so it could challenge the usual steering mechanisms and we should not let our guard down until it has travelled well beyond our latitude. We have to thank these pros at the Hurricane Center for their measured forecast.
 
May 1, 2011
4,190
Pearson 37 Lusby MD
And now NOAA shows Matthew doing a hook to the east without a direct hit on Georgia or South Carolina.